Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.2.8 Impacts on conflicts ====

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There is ''low confidence'' in climate change and desertification leading to violent conflicts. There is ''medium evidence'' and ''low agreement'' that climate change and desertification contribute to already existing conflict potentials (Herrero 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r768|768]]</sup> ; von Uexkull et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r769|769]]</sup> ; Theisen 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r770|770]]</sup> ; Olsson 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r771|771]]</sup> ; Wischnath and Buhaug 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r772|772]]</sup> ) (Section 4.7.3). To illustrate, Hsiang et al. (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r773|773]]</sup> found that each one standard deviation increase in temperature or rainfall was found to increase interpersonal violence by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% (Hsiang et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r774|774]]</sup> ). However, this conclusion was disputed by Buhaug et al. (2014) <sup>[[#fn:r775|775]]</sup> , who found no evidence linking climate variability to violent conflict after replicating Hsiang et al. (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r776|776]]</sup> by studying only violent conflicts. Almer et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r777|777]]</sup> found that a one standard deviation increase in dryness raised the likelihood of riots in Sub-Saharan African countries by 8.3% during the 1990–2011 period. On the other hand, Owain and Maslin (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r778|778]]</sup> found that droughts and heatwaves were not significantly affecting the level of regional conflict in East Africa. Similarly, it was suggested that droughts and desertification in the Sahel played a relatively minor role in the conflicts in the Sahel in the 1980s, with the major reasons for the conflicts during this period being political, especially the marginalisation of pastoralists (Benjaminsen 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r779|779]]</sup> ), corruption and rent-seeking (Benjaminsen et al. 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r780|780]]</sup> ). Moreover, the role of environmental factors as the key drivers of conflicts was questioned in the case of Sudan (Verhoeven 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r781|781]]</sup> ) and Syria (De Châtel 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r782|782]]</sup> ). Selection bias, when the literature focuses on the same few regions where conflicts occurred and relates them to climate change, is a major shortcoming, as it ignores other cases where conflicts did not occur (Adams et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r783|783]]</sup> ) despite degradation of the natural resource base and extreme weather events.

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