Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.4.2.1 Policies to ensure availability, access, utilisation and stability of food ====

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Food security is affected by interactions between climatic factors (rising temperatures, changes in weather variability and extremes), changes in land use and land degradation, and Socio-economic Pathways and policy choices related to food systems (see Figures 7.1 and 7.2). As outlined in Chapter 5, key aspects of food security are food availability, access to food, utilisation of food, and stability of food systems.

While comprehensive reviews of policy are rare and additional data is needed (Adu et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r367|367]]</sup> ), evidence indicates that the results of food security interventions vary widely due to differing values underlying the design of instruments. A large portfolio of measures is available to shape outcomes in these areas from the use of tariffs or subsidies, to payments for production practices (OECD 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r368|368]]</sup> ). In the past, efforts to increase food production through significant investment in agricultural research, including crop improvement, have benefited farmers by increasing yields and reducing losses, and have helped consumers by lowering food prices (Pingali 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1677|1677]]</sup> , 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1678|1678]]</sup> ; Alston and Pardey 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r369|369]]</sup> ; Popp et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r370|370]]</sup> ). Public spending on agriculture research and development (R&amp;D) has been more effective at raising sustainable agriculture productivity than irrigation or fertiliser subsidies (OECD 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r371|371]]</sup> ). Yet, on average, between 2015 and 2017, governments spent only around 14% of total agricultural support on services, including physical and knowledge infrastructure, transport and information and communications technology.

In terms of increasing food availability and supply, producer support, including policies mandating subsidies or payments, have been used to boost production of certain commodities or protect ES. Incentives can distort markets and farm business decisions in both negative and positive ways. For example, the European Union promotes meat and dairy production through voluntary coupled direct payments. These do not yet internalise external damage to climate, health, and groundwater (Velthof et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r372|372]]</sup> ; Bryngelsson et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r373|373]]</sup> ). In most countries, producer support has been declining since the mid-1990s (OECD 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r374|374]]</sup> ). Yet new evidence indicates that a government policy supporting producer subsidy could encourage farmers to adopt new technologies and reduce GHG emissions in agriculture ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). However, this will require large capital (Henderson 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r375|375]]</sup> ). Since a 1995 reform in its forest law, Costa Rica has effectively used a combination of fuel tax, water tax, loans and agreements with companies, to pay landowners for agroforestry, reforestation and sustainable forest management (Porras and Asquith 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r376|376]]</sup> ).

Inland capture fisheries and aquaculture are an integral part of nutrition security and livelihoods for large numbers of people globally (Welcomme et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r377|377]]</sup> ; Hall et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r378|378]]</sup> ; Tidwell and Allan 2001 <sup>[[#fn:r379|379]]</sup> ; Youn et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r380|380]]</sup> ) and are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and competing land and water use (Allison et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r381|381]]</sup> ; Youn et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r382|382]]</sup> ). Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions ( ''low'' ''confidence'' ) but production is likely to decline in low-latitude regions under future warming ( ''high confidence'' ) (Brander and Keith 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r383|383]]</sup> ; Brander 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r384|384]]</sup> ). However over-exploitation and degradation of rivers has resulted in a decreasing trend in the contribution of capture fisheries to protein security in comparison to managed aquaculture (Welcomme et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r385|385]]</sup> ). Aquaculture, however, competes for land and water resources with many negative ecological and environmental impacts (Verdegem and Bosma 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r386|386]]</sup> ; Tidwell and Allan 2001 <sup>[[#fn:r387|387]]</sup> ). Inland capture fisheries are undervalued in national and regional food security, ES and economy, are data deficient and are neglected in terms of supportive policies at national levels, and absent in SDGs (Cooke et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r388|388]]</sup> ; Hall et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r389|389]]</sup> ; Lynch et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r390|390]]</sup> ). Revival of sustainable capture fisheries and converting aquaculture to environmentally less-damaging management regimes, is likely to succeed with the following measures: investment in recognition of their importance, improved valuation and assessment, secure tenure and adoption of social, ecological and technological guidelines, upstream-downstream river basin cooperation, and maintenance of ecological flow regimes in rivers (Youn et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r391|391]]</sup> ; Mostert et al. 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r392|392]]</sup> ; Ziv et al. 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r393|393]]</sup> ; Hurlbert and Gupta 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r394|394]]</sup> ; Poff et al. 2003 <sup>[[#fn:r395|395]]</sup> ; Thomas 1996 <sup>[[#fn:r396|396]]</sup> ; FAO 2015a <sup>[[#fn:r397|397]]</sup> ).

Extension services, and policies supporting agricultural extension systems, are also critical. Smallholder farmer-dominated agriculture is currently the backbone of global food security in the developing world. Without education and incentives to manage land and forest resources in a manner that allows regeneration of both the soils and wood stocks, smallholder farmers tend to generate income through inappropriate land management practices, engage in agricultural production on unsuitable land and use fertile soils, timber and firewood for brick production and construction. Also, they engage in charcoal production (deforestation) as a coping mechanism (increasing income) against food deficiency (Munthali and Murayama 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r398|398]]</sup> ). Through extension services, governments can play a proactive role in providing information on climate and market risks, animal and plant health. Farmers with greater access to extension training retain more crop residues for mulch on their fields (Jaleta et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1679|1679]]</sup> , 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1680|1680]]</sup> ; Baudron et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r399|399]]</sup> ).

Food security cannot be achieved by increasing food availability alone. Policy instruments, which increase access to food at the household level, include safety-net programming and universal basic income. The graduation approach, developed and tested over the past decade using randomised control trials in six countries, has lasting positive impacts on income, as well as food and nutrition security (Banerjee et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r400|400]]</sup> ; Raza and Poel 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r401|401]]</sup> ) ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ). The graduation approach layers and integrates a series of interventions designed to help the poorest: consumption support in the form of cash or food assistance, transfer of an income- generating asset (such as a livestock) and training on how to maintain the asset, assistance with savings and coaching or mentoring over a period of time to reinforce learning and provide support. Due to its success, the graduation approach is now being scaled up, and is now used in more than 38 countries and included by an increasing number of governments in social safety-net programmes (Hashemi and de Montesquiou 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r402|402]]</sup> ).

At the national and global levels, food prices and trade policies impact on access to food. Fiscal policies, such as taxation, subsidies, or tariffs, can be used to regulate production and consumption of certain foods and can affect environmental outcomes. In Denmark, a tax on saturated fat content of food adopted to encourage healthy eating habits accounted for 0.14% of total tax revenues between 2011 and 2012 (Sassi et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r403|403]]</sup> ). A global tax on GHG emissions, for example, has large mitigation potential and will generate tax revenues, but may also result in large reductions in agricultural production (Henderson 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r404|404]]</sup> ). Consumer-level taxes on GHG- intensive food may be applied to address competitiveness issues between different countries, if some countries use taxes while others do not. However, increases in prices might impose disproportionate financial burdens on low-income households, and may not be publicly acceptable. A study examining the relationship between food prices and social unrest found that, between 1990 and 2011, whereas food price stability has not been associated with increases in social unrest (Bellemare 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r405|405]]</sup> ).

Interventions that allow people to maximise their productive potential while protecting the ES may not ensure food security in all contexts. Some household land holdings are so small that self-sufficiency is not possible (Venton 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r406|406]]</sup> ). Value chain development has, in the past, increased farm income but delivered fewer benefits to vulnerable consumers (Bodnár et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r407|407]]</sup> ). Ultimately, a mix of production activities and consumption support is needed. Consumption support can be used to help achieve the second important element of food security – access to food.

Agricultural technology transfer can help optimise food and nutrition security (Section 7.4.4.3). Policies that affect agricultural innovation span sectors and include ‘macro-economic policy-settings; institutional governance; environmental standards; investment, land, labor and education policies; and incentives for investment, such as a predictable regulatory environment and robust intellectual property rights’.

The scientific community can partner across sectors and industries for better data sharing, integration, and improved modelling and analytical capacities (Janetos et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r408|408]]</sup> ; Lunt et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r409|409]]</sup> ). To better predict, respond to, and prepare for concurrent agricultural failures, and gain a more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk, large data gaps need to be filled, as well as gaps in empirical foundation and analytical capabilities (Janetos et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r410|410]]</sup> ; Lunt et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r411|411]]</sup> ). Data required include global historical datasets, many of which are unreliable, inaccessible, or not available (Maynard 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r412|412]]</sup> ; Lunt et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r413|413]]</sup> ). Participation in co-design for scenario planning can build social and human capital while improving understanding of food system risks and creating innovative ways for collectively planning for a more equitable and resilient food system (Himanen et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r414|414]]</sup> ; Meijer et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r415|415]]</sup> ; Van Rijn et al. 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r417|417]]</sup> ). Bangladesh has managed to sustain a rapid reduction in the rate of child undernutrition for at least two decades. Rapid wealth accumulation and large gains in parental education are the two largest drivers of change (Headey et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r418|418]]</sup> ). Educating consumers, and providing affordable alternatives, will be critical to changing unsustainable food-use habits relevant to climate change.

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