Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.4.4 Limits to Adaptation ===

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The effectiveness of adaptation efforts also depends on the constraints and limits that human and natural systems face when confronted with increasingly higher levels of climate risks. The concept of adaptation limits strongly affects any appropriate balance among adaptation and mitigation actions in the sense that less mitigation makes adaptation harder or even infeasible. '''Adaptation limits''' refer to the point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions (Annex II: Glossary). Adaptation limits can be soft or hard. '''Soft adaptation limits''' occur when options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive actions and '''hard adaptation limits''' occur when no adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks. Intolerable risks are those which fundamentally threaten a private or social norm—threatening, for instance, public safety, continuity of traditions, a legal standard or a social contract—despite adaptive action having been taken ( [[#Dow--2013|Dow et. al. 2013]] ). Intolerable risks threaten core social objectives associated with health, welfare, security or sustainability (WGII AR5 Chapter 16, [[#Klein--2014b|Klein et al., 2014b]] ). Through the lens of resilience, hard limits represent the range of change or disturbance beyond which a system cannot maintain its essential function, identity and structure. Soft limits represent the range of change or disturbance of a system which can be sustained over time by innovation or policy changes. The level of GHG emissions reduction, adaptation and risk management measures are the key factors determining if and when adaptation limits are reached.

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==== 1.4.4.1 Limits to Adaptation and Relation to Transformation ====

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A species’ ability to adapt may be significantly impacted by the dynamics of interactions between the ecosystems and species, so that a species may reach its limit to adapt even in a gradually changing environment, leading to sudden changes in range fragmentation ( [[#Radchuk--2019|Radchuk et al., 2019]] ). As human interventions affect the ability of species and ecosystems to adapt, a deeper understanding on ecosystems and species interactions and evolution in response to climate change is important in order to reduce future biodiversity losses ( [[#Nadeau--2019|Nadeau and Urban, 2019]] ). Soft limits are usually associated with human systems whereas hard limits are more proximate for natural systems due to inability to adapt to biophysical changes (Chapter 16) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Many human and natural systems are near their soft adaptation limits for instance, terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems, coastal communities, water security, crop production, and human health (Chapters 2;3; 4; 5; 7; 16; [[#Dow--2013|Dow et al., 2013]] ).

The concept of limits to adaptation is dynamic in terms of the temporal, spatial and contextual dimensions of climate change risks, impacts and responses (Chapter 17; [[#Storch--2018|Storch, 2018]] ). Adaptation limits depend on a complex function of interactions between social, ecological, technological and climatic elements, which appear to have thresholds beyond which adaptation can be infeasible and represent limits to adaptation. Such thresholds are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes, culture, governance, institutions and policies ( [[#Abrahamson--2009|Abrahamson et al., 2009]] ; [[#Tschakert--2017|Tschakert et al., 2017]] ). Since AR5, the evidence on limits to adaptation has been advanced across regions and sectors. Many adaptation constraints (financial, governance, institutional and policy, etc.) lead to soft adaptation limits (see Chapter 16 for detailed evidence on constraints and adaptation limits). The ability of actors to overcome these constraints including social constraints to behavioural changes, depends on additional adaptation implementation. ( [[#Abrahamson--2009|Abrahamson et al., 2009]] ; [[#Juan--2011|Juan, 2011]] ; [[#Di%20Virgilio--2019|Di Virgilio et al., 2019]] ). Thus, socioeconomic, technological, governance and institutional systems or policies can be changed or transformed in responses to the different dimension of adaptation limits to climate change and extreme events.

When a limit (soft) is reached, then intolerable risks and impacts may occur, and additional adaptations (incremental or transformational) are required.to reduce or avoid these risks and impacts (Chapters 16; 17). IPCC SR1.5 defined incremental adaptation that maintains the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale, whereas transformational adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a socio-ecological system in anticipation of climate change and its impacts. When incremental adaptation is insufficient to avoid intolerable risks, transformational adaptation may be able to extend the potential to sustain human and natural systems ( [[#IPCC--2018a|IPCC, 2018a]] ; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; [[#Klein--2014b|Klein et al., 2014b]] ). Transformational adaptation can allow a system to extend beyond its soft limits and prevent soft limits from becoming hard limits. This report provides evidence of assessing transformational adaptation in terms of scope, depth, speed and limits to adaptation (Chapter 16).

This report assesses adaptation limits (soft and hard) and residual risks for some actors and systems (Chapter 16). '''Residual risk''' is the risk that remains following adaptation and risk reduction efforts (SROCC). Residual risk is also used as other terms such as ‘residual impacts’, ‘residual loss and damage’ and ‘residual damage’. As noted in AR5 WGII ( [[#IPCC--2014a|IPCC, 2014a]] , b), the residual risk is larger or smaller depending on a society’s choices about the appropriate level of adaptation and its ability to achieve an appropriate level. The intersection of inequality and poverty presents significant adaptation limits, resulting in residual impacts for vulnerable groups, including women, youth, elderly, ethnic and religious minorities, Indigenous People and refugees (Section 8.4.5). An appropriate level of adaptation, which ideally reflects a balance between the desired level of risk and the actions needed to achieve that level of risk, depends on the solution space, the society’s views on climate justice, the tolerance for climate-related risks, the society’s tolerance for the costs and other impacts of the actions needed to reduce risk. IPCC’s special reports stated that residual risks rise with increasing global temperatures from 1.5°C to 2°C (SR 1.5) and emerge from irreversible forms of land degradation (SRCCL). Among other risks, this report evidenced that, at risk to coastal flooding from sea level rise, nature-based adaptation measures (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, marshes) reach hard limits beginning at 1.5 ° C of global warming (Chapter 16). Residual risks may lead to exceeding the limits of adaptation, hence, this report underscores on the role of decision making on transformational adaptation for dealing with residual risk as well as soft and hard adaptation limits (Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17). Section 1.5 addresses transformational adaptation in the context of climate resilient development pathways since such adaptation is inseparable from mitigation and sustainable development.

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==== 1.4.4.2 Emerging Importance of Loss and Damage ====

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The concept of '''Loss and Damage''' (with capitalised letters, L&amp;D) refers to the discussion point under the UNFCCC, which is to ‘address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change, including extreme events and slow onset events, in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change’. Lowercase letters of '''losses and damages''' refer broadly to harm from (observed) impacts and (projected) risks ( [[#IPCC--2018a|IPCC, 2018a]] ). The IPCC report uses the latter for its assessment on loss and damage which may provide useful information for the former. L&amp;D associated with climate change has gained importance supported by the robust scientific evidence on anthropogenic climate change amplifying the frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards ( [[#Mechler--2019|Mechler et al., 2019]] ). Loss and damage associated with those residual losses and damages that are felt beyond the adaptation actions taken imply a sense of limits to adaptation at a given time and within a spatial context ( [[#Tschakert--2017|Tschakert et al., 2017]] ). IPCC’s SRCCL also underlined the unavoidable loss and damage due to changes in tropical and extratropical cyclones and marine heatwaves, where adaptation and resilience limits are being exceeded for the people and ecosystems (Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ).

Loss and damage has emerged as an important topic in international climate policy ( [[#Surminski--2015|Surminski and Lopez, 2015]] ; [[#Roberts--2016|Roberts and Pelling, 2016]] ; [[#Boyd--2017|Boyd et al., 2017]] ). It originated in assessing compensation for SIDS, related to sea level rise impacts. It has since become formalised under the UNFCCC, through the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism ( [[#UNFCCC--2013|UNFCCC, 2013]] ) and Article 8 of the Paris Agreement ( [[#UNFCCC--2015b|UNFCCC, 2015b]] ). The Warsaw International Mechanism promotes the implementation of comprehensive risk management approaches, improves understanding of slow onset events, non-economic losses and human mobility (migration, displacement), and enhances action and support, including finance, technology and capacity building to avert, minimise and address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts, particularly on vulnerable and developing countries ( [[#UNFCCC--2021|UNFCCC, 2021]] ). Different actors have defined loss and damage differently in reference to climate change impacts and responses ( [[#Surminski--2015|Surminski and Lopez, 2015]] ; [[#Roberts--2016|Roberts and Pelling, 2016]] ; [[#Boyd--2017|Boyd et al., 2017]] ; [[#McNamara--2019|McNamara and Jackson, 2019]] ). These understandings include the following: (a) an adaptation and mitigation perspective linking all human-induced climate change impacts to potential loss and damage and a mandate to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference; (b) a risk management perspective emphasising interconnections among disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and humanitarian efforts; (c) a limits to adaptation perspective focused on residual loss and damage beyond adaptation and mitigation; and (d) an existential perspective highlighting inevitable harm and unavoidable transformation for some people and systems. This report assesses the growing literature on loss and damage across sectors and regions linking with adaptation constraints and limits, GWL and incremental and or transformational adaptation to climate risks (Section 8.3.4; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in Chapter 17; Box 10.7).

To assess the projected losses and damages, residual risks also need to be taken into account. The loss and damage associated with the future climate change impacts, beyond the limits to adaptation, is an area of increasing focus, although yet to be fully developed in terms of methods of assessment. This includes non-economic losses and damages, as well as identifying means to avoid and reduce both economic (loss of asset, infrastructure, land etc.) and non-economic (loss of societal beliefs and values, cultural heritage, biodiversity and ecosystem services) losses and damages ( [[#Fankhauser--2014|Fankhauser and Dietz, 2014]] ; [[#Andrei--2015|Andrei et al., 2015]] ). There is increasing evidence of economic and non-economic losses due to climate extremes and slow onset events under observed increases in global temperatures (Section 8.3.4; [[#Coronese--2019|Coronese et al., 2019]] ; Grinsted et al., 2019; [[#Kahn--2019|Kahn et al., 2019]] ), however assessment of non-economic losses and damages is lacking and needs more attention (Serdeczny et al., 2016; [[#Tschakert--2019|Tschakert et al., 2019]] ). The aggregate losses and damages would be higher if non-economic values are considered in such assessment ( [[#Laurila-Pant--2015|Laurila-Pant et al., 2015]] ; [[#McShane--2017|McShane, 2017]] ). To reduce or avoid loss and damage, there is a need for robust conceptual framework and analysis, focusing on future losses rather than past losses ( [[#Preston--2017|Preston, 2017]] ). This should have an emphasis on avoiding versus addressing loss and damage and the role of justice ( [[#Boyd--2017|Boyd et al., 2017]] ), clarity on detection and attribution (Sections 8.2.1; 8.3.3), effectiveness of risk management and adaptation (Cross-Chapter Box FEASIB in Chapter 18; Section 1.4), the concepts of risk transfer, liability and financing (Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17; Section 17.4.2) and the role of transformation (Section 1.5).

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