Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

===== 11.3.4.1.3 Adaptation =====

<div id="h4-10-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Some farmers are adapting to drier and warmer conditions through more effective capture of non-growing-season rainfall (e.g., stubble retention to store soil water), improved water use efficiency and matching sowing times and cultivars to the environment ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Kirkegaard--2011|Kirkegaard and Hunt, 2011]] ; [[#Fitzer--2019|Fitzer et al., 2019]] ; [[#Haensch--2021|Haensch et al., 2021]] ). Observed adaptations include new technologies that improve resource efficiencies, professional knowledge and skills development, new farmer and community networks and diversification of business and household income ( [[#Ghahramani--2015|Ghahramani et al., 2015]] ; [[#De--2016|De et al., 2016]] ). For Australian wheat, earlier sowing and longer-season cultivars may increase yield by 2–4% by 2050, with a range of −7 to +2% by 2090 ( [[#Wang--2018a|Wang et al., 2018a]] ). In the wheat industry, breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance remains a priority ( [[#Lobell--2015|Lobell et al., 2015]] ). Modelling suggests that, since 1990, farm management has held Australian wheat yields constant, but declining rainfall and increasing temperature may have contributed to a 27% decline in simulated potential Australian wheat yield ( [[#Hochman--2017|Hochman et al., 2017]] ).

Other observed incremental adaptations include later pruning in the grape industry to spread harvest period and partially restore wine balance, with neutral effects on yield and cost ( [[#Moran--2019|Moran et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ausseil--2021|Ausseil et al., 2021]] ). The cotton sector increasingly requires shifts in sowing dates to avoid financial impacts ( [[#Luo--2017|Luo et al., 2017]] ). During years of low water availability, rice growers have been trading water and/or shifting to dry land farming ( [[#Mushtaq--2016|Mushtaq, 2016]] ).

Growers in New Zealand are changing the timing of their operations, growing crops within covered enclosures and purchasing insurance ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2015|Cradock-Henry and McKusker, 2015]] ) Teixeira et al. 2018). Investment of capital in irrigation infrastructure has increased ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2018a|Cradock-Henry et al., 2018a]] ), although its effectiveness as an adaptation depends on water availability (Box 11.5). In industries based on long-lived plants, such as the kiwifruit and grape industries, many of the adaptations (e.g., breeding and growing heat-adapted and disease-resistant varieties) have long lead times and require greater investment than in the cropping sector ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2020a|Cradock-Henry et al., 2020a]] ). While breeding programmes for traits with enhanced resilience to future climates are beginning, there is little evidence of strategic industry planning ( [[#Cradock-Henry--2018a|Cradock-Henry et al., 2018a]] ).

For drought management, balancing near-term needs with long-term adaptation to increasing aridity is essential ( [[#Downing--2016|Downing et al., 2016]] ). Insufficient and maladaptive decisions can have far-reaching effects, including changes to resources, infrastructure, services and supply chains to which others must adapt ( [[#Fleming--2015|Fleming et al., 2015]] ; [[#Graham--2018|Graham et al., 2018]] ). While there is potential for a greater proportion of agriculture to be located to northern Australia, there are significant and complex agronomic, environmental, institutional, financial and social challenges for successful transformation, including the risk of disruption ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Jakku--2016|Jakku et al., 2016]] ).

<div id="11.3.4.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="livestock"></span>