Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.3.2.3 Maladaptation and limits to adaptation ====

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In polar regions, multiple entities operate simultaneously to manage lands and resources, resulting in layered approaches and policies for the same sector or region, only some of which are synergistic and a few of which may counter each other (e.g., Southern Ocean: [[#Solomonsz--2021|Solomonsz et al., 2021]] ). Climate change and attendant uncertainty can undermine stakeholder confidence in management, leading to less effective management even when scientific understanding is stable ( [[#Mumby--2017|Mumby et al., 2017]] ). In the Arctic, large landscapes, dispersed population centres, limited resources and settler colonialism are structural barriers to effective planning, emergency response, and relief and recovery from climate impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ), which limit adaptation and sometimes exacerbate climate and non-climate pressures on social and ecological systems ( [[#Ford--2015|Ford et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ford--2020|Ford et al., 2020]] ; [[#Snook--2020|Snook et al., 2020]] ).

Adaptation strategies that are beneficial in the short term can result in long-term maladaptive outcomes. For Indigenous Peoples, strategies that fail to address colonialism, inequities and injustices undermine effective adaptation ( [[#Canosa--2020|Canosa et al., 2020]] ; [[#Schipper--2020|Schipper, 2020]] ; [[#Ford--2021|Ford et al., 2021]] ). Large ‘responsiveness gaps’ between impacts and implementation, approaches that fail to consider dynamic responses within social and ecological systems (which amplify or attenuate climate impacts), and a paucity of ''a priori'' planning can contribute to maladaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pentz--2017|Pentz and Klenk, 2017]] ; [[#Turner--2020b|Turner et al., 2020b]] ). For example, rationalisation (privatisation) can stabilise fisheries and incentivise long-term sustainability under stationary conditions, yet also promote low diversity in harvest (or livelihood) portfolios, and when combined with behaviours to offset climate driven declines in yield (e.g., effort or price), rationalisation can create lock-in to declining stocks, increasing the risk of income variability and collapse ( [[#Kasperski--2013|Kasperski and Holland, 2013]] ; [[#Pinkerton--2015|Pinkerton and Davis, 2015]] ; [[#Holland--2017|Holland et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ojea--2017|Ojea et al., 2017]] ; [[#Anderies--2019|Anderies et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fisher--2021|Fisher et al., 2021]] ). Policies that foster stewardship yet also allow for diversification in fisheries may further attenuate climate shocks to individual fisheries ( [[#Kasperski--2013|Kasperski and Holland, 2013]] ; [[#Fisher--2021|Fisher et al., 2021]] ) and stabilise catches (e.g., US Bering Sea pollock fleet ( [[#Watson--2018|Watson and Haynie, 2018]] )). Inclusive and participatory decision making underpins long-term resilience to climate change ( ''medium confidence'' )( [[#Flynn--2018|Flynn et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ford--2020|Ford et al., 2020]] ), but a high cost of participation can disproportionately favour entities with strong investment, ample resources and extreme viewpoints such that decision outcomes are not in the broad interest of polar societies ( [[#Lynham--2017|Lynham et al., 2017]] ).

There are significant limits to adaptation in the polar regions related to the rate of warming and cascading changes that are occurring, which is equivalent to double and sometimes triple the global average depending on the region ( [[#Bush--2019|Bush and Lemmen, 2019]] ; [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ). The rapid pace of change, such as sea ice loss, can outpace ecological processes and induce substantial ecological shifts (CCP6.2) ( ''medium confidence'' ). The speed of climate change in the Arctic limits options for adaptation in communities who rely on a narrow resource base, when adaptation involves loss of culture and livelihoods, and when the costs of adaptation make it infeasible ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Ford--2015|Ford et al., 2015]] ), such as for reindeer herding (Table CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.7) ( [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ). Adapting infrastructure in response to a rapidly changing cryosphere will be limited by available technologies and the relatively higher costs associated with updating infrastructure over vast polar regions ( [[#Schneider%20von%20Deimling--2021|Schneider von Deimling et al., 2021]] ).

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[[File:9f44dbd8fcec6addc812c98ed71a3d4a IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP6_007.png]]

'''Figure CCP6.7 |''' '''Climate change impacts, risks and potential for adaptation in Arctic (upper panel) and Antarctic (lower panel) social–ecological systems.'''

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