Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Water and food sectors ===

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'''TS''' '''.D.5 Various adaptation options in the water, agricultur''' '''e a''' '''nd food sectors are feasible with several co-benefits (''' '''''hi''''' '''''gh''''' '''''confidence''''' '''), some of which are effective at reducing clima''' '''te i''' '''mpacts (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Adaptation responses reduc''' '''e''' '''future''' '''climate risks at 1.5°C warming, but effectiveness''' '''decreases''' '''above 2°C (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Resilience is strengthened by ecosystem-based adaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and sustainable''' '''resource management of terrestrial''' '''and aquatic species (''' '''''medium''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' '''Agricultural intensification strategies produce be''' '''nef''' '''i''' '''ts but with trade-offs and negative socioeconomic and en''' '''vironmental effects (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Competition, trade-of''' '''fs an''' '''d conflict between mitigation and adaptation priorities''' '''will increase with climate change impacts (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Integrated, multi-sectoral, inclusive and systems-oriented solutions reinforce long-term resilience (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), along with supportive public policies (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER, Figure TS.11a) { 2.6, 4.6.2, 4.7.1, 4.7.4, 4.8, Box 4.3, Figure 4.27, Figure 4.29, 5.4.3, 5.4.4, 7.4.2, 1.1, 9.12.4, 12.5.3, 12.5.4, 13.2.2, 14.4.3, 14.4.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4.2 CCP5.4.2] , CCB FEASIB, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.D.5.1 There are a range of options for water- and food-related adaptation in different sociocultural, economic and geographical contexts, with benefits across several dimensions across regions (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), including climate risk reduction (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Frequently documented options include rainwater harvesting, soil moisture conservation, cultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural diversification, climate services and adaptive eco-management in fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ). Roughly 25% of assessed water-related adaptations have co-benefits, while 33% of the assessed reported current or future maladaptive outcomes ( ''high confidence'' ). There is ''limited evidence, medium agreement'' on the institutional feasibility or cost effectiveness of adaptation activities or their limits. Integration of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge increase their effectiveness ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.6, 4.7.1, 5.4.4, 5.5.4, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4, 5.11.4, 5.12.4, 5.14.1, 12.5.3, 12.5.4, 13.2.2, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, Figure 13.7, Figure 13.15, 15.5.4, 15.5.6, CCB FEASIB }

'''TS.D.5.2 The projected future effectiveness of available adaptation for agriculture and food systems decreases with increasing warming (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Currently known adaptation responses generally perform more effectively at 1.5°C than at 2°C or more, with increasing risks remaining after adaptation at higher warming levels ( ''high confidence'' ). Irrigation expansion will face increasing limits due to water availability beyond 1.5°C ( ''medium confidence'' ), with a potential doubling of regional risks to irrigation water availability between 2°C and 4°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Negative risks even with adaptation will become greater beyond 2°C warming in an increasing number of regions ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.6.2, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.3, 5.4.3, 5.4.4, 13.5.1, 13.10.2, 14.5.4, 15.3.4 }

'''TS.D.5.3 Ecosystem-based approaches, agroecology and other nature-based solutions in agriculture and fisheries have the potential to strengthen resilience to climate change with multiple co-benefits (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''); trade-offs and benefits vary with socioecological context.''' Options such as ecosystem approaches to fisheries, agricultural diversification, agroforestry and other ecological practices support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes ( ''high confidence'' ), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support ( ''medium confidence'' ). Ecosystem-based approaches support food security, nutrition and livelihoods when inclusive equitable governance processes are used ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.6.3, 3.4.2, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 3.6.5, Figure 3.26, Table SM3.6, 4.6.6, Box 4.6, 5.4.4, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.3, 5.10.4, 5.14.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.3, 9.6.4, 12.5.1, 12.5.4, 13.3.2, 13.5.2, 14.5.1, 14.5.2, 14.5.3, 14.5.4, Box 14.7, 16.3.2, CCB FEASIB, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''TS.D.5.4 Sustainable resource management in response to distribution shifts of terrestrial and aquatic species under climate change is an effective adaptation option to reduce food and nutritional risk, conflict and loss of livelihood (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptation options exist to reduce the vulnerability of fisheries through better management, governance and socioeconomic dimensions ( ''medium confidence'' ) to eliminate overexploitation and pollution ( ''high confidence'' ). Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can facilitate adaptation in small-scale fisheries, especially when combined with scientific knowledge and utilised in management regimes ( ''medium confidence'' ). Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 5.8.4, 5.14.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4.2 CCP5.4.2] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.D.5.5 Adaptation options that promote intensification of production have been widely adopted in agriculture for climate change adaptation, but with potential negative effects (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Agricultural intensification addresses short-term food security and livelihood goals but has trade-offs in equity, biodiversity and ecosystem services ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Irrigation is widely used and effective for yield stability, but with several negative outcomes, including water demand ( ''high confidence'' ), groundwater depletion ( ''high confidence'' ), alteration of local to regional climates ( ''high confidence'' ), increasing soil salinity ( ''medium confidence'' ), widening inequalities and loss of rural smallholder livelihoods with weak governance ( ''medium confidence'' ). Conventional breeding assisted by genomics introduces traits that adapt crops to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Genetic improvements through modern biotechnology have the potential to increase climate resilience in food production systems ( ''high confidence'' ), but with biophysical ceilings, and technical, agroecosystem, socioeconomic and political variables strongly influence and limit the uptake of climate resilient crops, particularly for smallholders ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.6.2, 4.7.1, Box 4.3, 5.4.4, 5.12.5, 5.13.4, 5.14.1, 10.2.2, 12.5.4, 13.5.1, 13.5.2, 13.5.14, 14.5.4, 15.3.4, 17.5.1 }

'''TS.D.5.6 Integrated and systems-oriented solutions to alleviate competition and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation will reinforce long-term resilience and equity in water and food systems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Large-scale land deals for climate mitigation have trade-offs with livelihoods, water and food security ( ''high confidence'' ). Afforestation programmes without adequate safeguards adversely affect Indigenous Peoples’ rights, land tenure and adaptive capacity ( ''high confidence'' ). Some mitigation measures, such as carbon capture and storage, bio-energy and afforestation, have a high water footprint ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased demand for aquaculture, animal and marine foods and energy products will intensify competition and potential conflict over land and water resources, particularly in low- and medium-income countries ( ''high confidence'' ), with negative impacts on food security and deforestation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' Integrated, systems-oriented solutions reduce competition and trade-offs and include inclusive governance, behavioural (e.g., healthier diets with lower carbon and water footprints) and technical (e.g., novel feeds) responses ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.4.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.5. 2.6, 3.6.3, 4.7.1, 4.7.6, Box 4.5, Box 4.8, 5.13.1, 5.13.2, 5.13.3, 5.13.5, 5.13.7, 9.4.3, 12.5.8, 12.6.2, 14.5.4, 15.5.6, 17.5.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4.2 CCP5.4.2] , CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''TS.D.5.7 Integrated multi-sectoral strategies that address social inequities (e.g., gender, ethnicity) and social protection of low-income groups will increase the effectiveness of adaptation responses for water and food security (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Multiple interacting factors help to ensure that adaptive communities have water and food security, including addressing poverty, social inequities, violent conflict, provision of social services such as water and sanitation, social safety nets and vital ecosystem services. Differentiated responses based on water and food security level and climate risk increase effectiveness, such as social protection programmes for extreme events, medium-term responses such as local food procurement for school meals, community seed banks or well construction to build adaptive capacity ( ''medium confidence'' ). Longer-term responses include strengthening ecosystem services, local and regional markets, enhanced capacity and reducing systemic gender, land tenure and other social inequalities as part of a rights-based approach ( ''medium confidence'' ). In the urban context, policies that account for social inclusion in governance and rights to green urban spaces will enhance urban agriculture’s potential for food and water security and other ecosystem services. (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.7.1, 4.8.3, Figure 4.27, Figure 4.29, 5.12.5, 5.12.7, 12.5.3, 12.5.4, 12.5.5, 15.6.5, 17.5.1 }

'''TS.D.5.8 Supportive public policies for transitions to resilient water and food systems enhance effectiveness and feasibility in ecosystem provisioning services, livelihoods and water and food security (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Collective efforts across sectors, with the involvement of food producers and water users and including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, are a pre-condition to reaching sustainable water and food systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Policies that support system transitions include shifting subsidies, certification, green public procurement, capacity building, payments for ecosystem services and social protection ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.7.1, 4.8.4, 5.4.4, 5.4.4, 5.10.4, 5.12.6, 5.13.4, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, Box 5.13, 12.5.4, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

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