Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.5.2 Exposure ====

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NES is home to about 60 million people (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE [2020]]), with &gt;70% living in urban areas (data for 2010 from IBGE [2020]; Silva et al. [2017]) and high poverty levels (&gt;50%, data for 2003 fromIBGE [2020]]). People are exposed to intense drought and famine ( ''high confidence'' ), and about 94% of the region has moderate to high susceptibility to desertification ( [[#Marengo--2015|Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015]] ; [[#Spinoni--2015|Spinoni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Vieira--2015|Vieira et al., 2015]] ; [[#Mariano--2018|Mariano et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tomasella--2018|Tomasella et al., 2018]] ; [[#Marengo--2020c|Marengo et al., 2020c]] ). The most severe dry spell of 2012–2013 affected about 9 million people, who were exposed to water, food and energy scarcity ( [[#Marengo--2015|Marengo and Bernasconi, 2015]] ).

People, infrastructure and economic activities are exposed to SLR in the 3800 km of coastline ( ''medium confidence'' ). The high concentration of cities on the coast is a concern ( [[#Martins--2017|Martins et al., 2017]] ), with all state capital cities but one on the coast, totalling almost 12 million vulnerable people (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE [2020]]). The ports of São Luís, Recife and Salvador are important exporters of Brazilian commodities, and the beaches in the sub-region are an international touristic destination, generating considerable revenues (Pegas et al., 2015; [[#Ribeiro--2017|Ribeiro et al., 2017]] ).

Natural systems in NES are also exposed to climate change. In terrestrial ecosystems, 913,000 km 2 of NES’ dry forest Caatinga vegetation ( [[#Silva--2017|Silva et al., 2017]] ) is exposed to predicted increases in dryness. Despite what has been previously suggested, the Caatinga has high biodiversity and endemism ( [[#Silva--2017|Silva et al., 2017]] ), which vulnerable to habitat reduction due to climate change and agricultural expansion ( [[#Silva--2019b|Silva et al., 2019b]] ). Fifty-two percent of the freshwater fish (203 species) are endemic ( [[#Lima--2017|Lima et al., 2017]] ) and are exposed to predicted reduction in river flow due to climate change ( [[#Marengo--2017|Marengo et al., 2017]] ; [[#de%20Jong--2018|de Jong et al., 2018]] ). The coastal waters contain a separate marine ecoregion due to its uniqueness ( [[#Spalding--2007|Spalding et al., 2007]] ). The region is responsible for 99% of Brazilian shrimp production, which is exposed to SLR and increases in ocean temperature and acidification ( [[#Gasalla--2017|Gasalla et al., 2017]] ). Most coral reefs in the Southern Atlantic Ocean are along NES’s coast ( [[#Leão--2016|Leão et al., 2016]] ), increasing its conservation and touristic value. The 685 km 2 of coral reefs along NES’s coast (likely an underestimate [Moura et al. 2013; UNEP-WCMC et al. 2018]) are exposed to increased sea temperatures.

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