Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.4.5.2 Community Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change ====

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Perceptions of climate variability and change affect whether and how individuals and institutions act, and thus contribute to the success or failure of adaptation policies related to weather and climate ( [[#Silvestri--2012|Silvestri et al., 2012]] ; [[#Arbuckle--2015|Arbuckle et al., 2015]] ; [[#Simpson--2021a|Simpson et al., 2021a]] ).

A recent Afrobarometer study covering 34 African countries found 67% of Africans perceive climate conditions for agricultural production to have worsened over time, and report drought as the main extreme weather event to have worsened in the past decade ( [[#Selormey--2019|Selormey et al., 2019]] ). Of these participants, across all socioeconomic strata, 71% of those who were aware of the concept of climate change agreed that it needs to be stopped, but only 51% expressed confidence about their ability to make a difference. East Africans (63%) were almost twice as likely as north Africans (35%) to report that the weather for growing crops had worsened. Additionally, people engaged in occupations related to agriculture (farming, fishing or forestry) were more likely to report negative weather effects (59%) than those with other livelihoods (45%) ( [[#Selormey--2019|Selormey et al., 2019]] ). Similar perceptions have been reported among a diversity of rural communities in many sub-Saharan African countries ( [[#Mahl--2020|Mahl et al., 2020]] ; [[#Simpson--2021a|Simpson et al., 2021a]] ).

Rural communities, particularly farmers, are the most studied groups for climate change perception. They perceive the climate to be changing, most often reporting changes in rainfall variability, increased dry spells, decreases in rainfall and increased temperatures or temperature extremes. They perceive these changes to bring a range of negative socioeconomic and environmental effects ( [[#Alemayehu--2017|Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017]] ; [[#Liverpool-Tasie--2020|Liverpool-Tasie et al., 2020]] ; [[#Simpson--2021a|Simpson et al., 2021a]] ). In some cases, farmers’ perceptions of changes in weather and climate frequently match climate records for decreased precipitation totals, increased drought frequency, shorter rainy season and rainy season delay, and increased temperatures (Figure 9.11; [[#Rurinda--2014|Rurinda et al., 2014]] ; [[#Boansi--2017|Boansi et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ayanlade--2018|Ayanlade et al., 2018]] ), but not in all cases or not for all perceived changes, with common discrepancies in perceived lower rainfall totals ( [[#Alemayehu--2017|Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017]] ; [[#Ayal--2017|Ayal and Leal Filho, 2017]] ; [[#Simpson--2021a|Simpson et al., 2021a]] ).

Farming experience, access to extension services and increasing age are the most frequently cited factors positively influencing the perceptions of climate changes ( [[#Alemayehu--2017|Alemayehu and Bewket, 2017]] ; [[#Oduniyi--2019|Oduniyi and Tekana, 2019]] ). Personal experience of climate-related changes and their impacts appears to be an important factor influencing perceptions through shaping negative associations, for example, experience of flash floods ( [[#Elshirbiny--2020|Elshirbiny and Abrahamse, 2020]] ) or direct effect on economic activity, indicating that perception is not restricted to crop farmers ( [[#Liverpool-Tasie--2020|Liverpool-Tasie et al., 2020]] ). However, perceptions show common misconceptions about the causes of climate change, which has implications for climate action ( [[#Elshirbiny--2020|Elshirbiny and Abrahamse, 2020]] ), highlighting the importance of climate change literacy.

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