Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.4.2.2 Evolution of electricity supply over time ====

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Electricity supplies an increasing share of final energy, reaching 34–71% in 2050, across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot (Figure 2.14), extending the historical increases in electricity share seen over the past decades (Bruckner et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r373|373]]</sup> . From 2020 to 2050, the quantity of electricity supplied in most 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot more than doubles (Table 2.7). By 2050, the carbon intensity of electricity has fallen rapidly to −92 to +11 gCO <sub>2</sub> MJ <sup>−1</sup> electricity across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot from a value of around 140 gCO <sub>2</sub> MJ <sup>−1</sup> (range: 88–181 gCO <sub>2</sub> MJ <sup>−1</sup> ) in 2020 (Figure 2.14). A negative contribution to carbon intensity is provided by BECCS in most pathways (Figure 2.16).

By 2050, the share of electricity supplied by renewables increases from 23% in 2015 (IEA, 2017b) <sup>[[#fn:r374|374]]</sup> to 59–97% across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot. Wind, solar, and biomass together make a major contribution in 2050, although the share for each spans a wide range across 1.5°C pathways (Figure 2.16). Fossil fuels on the other hand have a decreasing role in electricity supply, with their share falling to 0–25% by 2050 (Table 2.7).

In summary, 1.5°C pathways include a rapid decline in the carbon intensity of electricity and an increase in electrification of energy end-use ( ''high confidence'' ). This is the case across all 1.5°C pathways and their associated literature (Supplementary Material 2.SM.1.3), with pathway trends that extend those seen in past decades, and results that are consistent with additional analyses (see Section 2.4.2.2).

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'''Figure 2.16'''

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'''Electricity generation for the four illustrative pathway archetypes plus the IEA’s Faster Transition Scenario (OECD/IEA and IRENA, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r375|375]]</sup> (panel a), and their relative location in the ranges for pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (panel b).'''
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[[File:c8454f2802a6e2b045d8be6ea97976af Figure-2.16-1024x610.jpg]]

The category ‘Other renewables’ includes electricity generation not covered by the other categories, for example, hydro and geothermal. The number of pathways that have higher primary energy than the scale in the bottom panel are indicated by the numbers above the whiskers. Black horizontal dashed lines indicate the level of primary energy supply in 2015 (IEA, 2017e) <sup>[[#fn:r376|376]]</sup> . Box plots in the lower panel show the minimum–maximum range (whiskers), interquartile range (box), and median (vertical thin black line). Symbols in the lower panel show the four pathway archetypes – S1 (white square), S2 (yellow square), S5 (black square), LED (white disc) – as well as the IEA’s Faster Transition Scenario (red disc). Pathways with no or limited overshoot included the Below-1.5°C and 1.5°C-low-OS classes.

Original Creation for this Report using IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Data hosted by IIASA

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