Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.3.3.3 Integrated response options based on risk management ====

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In this section, the impacts on desertification of integrated response options based on risk management are assessed. There are regional case studies of urban sprawl contributing to desertification in Mediterranean climates in particular (Barbero-Sierra et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r535|535]]</sup> ; Stellmes et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r536|536]]</sup> ), but no global figures.

Diversification may deliver some benefits for addressing desertification when it involves greater use of tree crops that may reduce the need for tillage (Antwi-Agyei et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r537|537]]</sup> ). Many anti-desertification programmes call for diversification (Stringer et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r538|538]]</sup> ), but there is little evidence on how many households had done so (Herrmann and Hutchinson 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r539|539]]</sup> ). There are no numbers for global impacts.

The literature is unclear on whether the use of local seeds has any relationship to desertification, although some local seeds are more likely to adapt to arid climates and less likely to degrade land than commercially introduced varieties (Mousseau 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r540|540]]</sup> ). Some anti- desertification programmes have also shown more success using local seed varieties (Bassoum and Ghiggi 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r541|541]]</sup> ; Nunes et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r542|542]]</sup> ).

Some disaster risk management approaches can have impacts on reducing desertification, like the Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) (currently in development), which will monitor precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, river flows, groundwater, agricultural productivity and natural ecosystem health. It may have some potential co-benefits to reduce desertification (Pozzi et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r543|543]]</sup> ). However, there are no figures yet for how much land area will be covered by such early warning systems.

Risk-sharing instruments, such as pooling labour or credit, could help communities invest in anti-desertification actions, but evidence is missing. Commercial crop insurance is likely to deliver no co-benefits for prevention and reversal of desertification, as evidence suggests that subsidised insurance, in particular, can increase crop production in marginal lands. Crop insurance could have been responsible for shifting up to 0.9% of rangelands to cropland in the Upper Midwest of the USA (Claassen et al. 2011a <sup>[[#fn:r544|544]]</sup> ).

Table 6.36 summarises the impact on desertification for options based on risk management, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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