Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.5.3 Vulnerability ====

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NES is the world’s most densely populated semiarid land and its population is highly vulnerable to droughts ( ''high confidence'' ), which have well-documented impacts on water and food security, human health and well-being in the region (e.g., Confalonieri et al. 2014a; Marengo et al. 2017; Bedran-Martins et al. 2018) (Figure 12.7). The region’s relatively low economic development and poor social and health indicators increase vulnerability, especially that of poor farmers and traditional communities ( [[#Confalonieri--2014a|Confalonieri et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Bech%20Gaivizzo--2019|Bech Gaivizzo et al., 2019]] ). In state capital cities, about 45% of the population live in poverty (data for 2003 fromIBGE [2020]]), often in slums with already deficient water supply and sewage systems and poor access to health and education. Climate change will increase pressures on water availability, threatening water, energy and food security ( [[#Marengo--2017|Marengo et al., 2017]] ).

Natural systems in NES are also vulnerable (Figure 12.7). The Caatinga vegetation is particularly sensitive to variations in water availability and climate change ( [[#Seddon--2016|Seddon et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rito--2017|Rito et al., 2017]] ; [[#Dantas--2020|Dantas et al., 2020]] ). It has already lost about 50% of its original vegetation cover ( [[#Souza--2020|Souza et al., 2020]] ), with only about 2% of the remaining vegetation within fully protected areas ( [[#CNUC%20and%20MMA--2020|CNUC and MMA, 2020]] ). Caatinga’s high vulnerability to climate change is further increased by the extensive conversion of native vegetation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Rito--2017|Rito et al., 2017]] ; [[#Silva--2019b|Silva et al., 2019b]] , c).

Studies with terrestrial animals show that habitat loss increases the vulnerability of species to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#de%20Oliveira--2012|de Oliveira et al., 2012]] ; [[#Arnan--2018|Arnan et al., 2018]] ; [[#da%20Silva--2018b|da Silva et al., 2018b]] ). NES’s coral reefs have shown some resilience to bleaching, but vulnerability is intensified by the synergy between chronic heat stress caused by increased SST ( [[#Teixeira--2019|Teixeira et al., 2019]] ) and other well-documented stressors, such as coastal runoff, urban development, marine tourism, overexploitation of reef organisms and oil extraction ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 12.8) ( [[#Leão--2016|Leão et al., 2016]] ).

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[[File:e9b1271e9a6b2cdf853179771da21520 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_12_008.png]]

'''Figure 12.8 |''' '''Climate and non-climate sensitivity drivers of ocean, coastal ecosystems and EEZs of Central and South America.'''

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