Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-3 (section)

== Frequently Asked Questions ==

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=== FAQ CCP3.1 | How has climate change already affected drylands and why are they so vulnerable? ===

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''Human-caused climate change has so far had mixed effects across the drylands, leading to fewer trees and less biodiversity in some areas and increased grass and tree cover in others. In those dryland areas with increasing aridity, millions of people face difficulties in maintaining their livelihoods, particularly where there is water scarcity.''

Drylands include the hottest and most arid areas on Earth. Human-caused climate change has been intensifying this heat and aridity in some places, increasing temperatures more across global drylands than in humid areas. In areas which are hotter and drier, tree death has occurred and in some locations bird species have been lost. Climate change has reduced rainfall in some dryland areas and increased rainfall in other areas. Increased rainfall, combined with the plant-fertilizing effect of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, can increase grass and shrub production in dryland areas. Because water is scarce in drylands and aridity limits the productivity of agriculture, millions of people living in drylands have faced severe difficulties in maintaining their livelihoods. This challenge is exacerbated by non-climate change factors, such as low levels of infrastructure, remoteness and limited livelihood options that are less dependent on scarce natural resources. High temperatures in drylands increase the vulnerability of people to potential heat-related illnesses and deaths from heat under continued climate change.

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=== FAQ CCP3.2 | How will climate change impact the world’s drylands and their people? ===

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''Climate change is projected to lead to higher temperatures across global drylands. Many drylands also risk more irregular rainfall leading to increased irregularity in crop yields and increased water insecurity where less rainfall is projected, which may have profound implications for both dryland ecosystems and their human inhabitants.''

There is, however, considerable uncertainty about the changes that may occur in drylands in the future and how people and ecosystems will be affected. In some drylands, higher temperatures and declining rainfall have increased aridity. However, this is not a global trend as many drylands are experiencing increases in vegetation cover and rainfall. Both the amount of rainfall and its seasonality have changed in many dryland areas, associated with natural variability and warming.

Most climate models project increased rainfall in tropical drylands, but more variability. High natural climatic variability in drylands makes predictions uncertain. Understanding future impacts is further complicated by many interacting factors such as land use change and urbanisation that affect the condition of drylands. Future trends in sand and dust storm activity are also uncertain and will not be the same everywhere, but there will likely be increases in some regions (e.g., the USA) in the long term. The impacts of climate change in deserts and semiarid areas may have substantial implications globally: for agriculture, biodiversity, health, trade and poverty, as well as potentially, for conflicts and migration. Increasing temperatures and more irregular rainfall are expected to affect soil and water and contribute to tree death and loss of biodiversity. In other places, woody encroachment onto savannas may increase, in response to the combination of land use change, changes in rainfall, fire suppression and CO 2 fertilization. Crop yields are projected to decline in some areas, with adverse impacts on food security. The potential for conflicts and migration is primarily associated with socioeconomic development, while links to climate change remain uncertain and lack evidence.

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FAQ 5.1

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=== FAQ CCP3.3 | What can be done to support sustainable development in desert and semiarid areas, given projected climate changes? ===

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''Water is a major limiting factor in drylands. Many efforts to support sustainable development aim to improve water availability, access and quality, ranging from large engineering solutions that move or desalinise water, to herders’ migrations with their animals to locations that have water, to land management and water harvesting practices that conserve water and support land cover. These solutions draw on IKLK and innovative science, and can help to address multiple Sustainable Development Goals.''

Different desert and semiarid areas can benefit from different incremental and transformational solutions to move toward sustainable development under climate change. In some dryland areas facing critical water shortages, transformational adaptations may be needed; for example, large-scale water desalination when they have access to sea water, despite high energy use and negative environmental impacts of waste brine. In dryland agricultural areas across the world, incremental adaptations include water conservation measures, use of improved crop varieties or increasing herd mobility. What counts as a transformational change in some places may be incremental in others. Often solutions can target multiple development goals. For example, water harvesting can make water available during drought, buffering water scarcity impacts, while also supporting food production, agricultural livelihoods and human health. Land-based approaches, e.g. restoration of grassland, shrubland, and savanna ecosystems, are important for ensuring ecological integrity, soil protection and preventing livelihoods from being undermined as a result of growing extreme weather events. It is important that policies, investments and interventions that aim to support sustainable development take into account which groups are likely to be most affected by climate change. Those people directly dependent on natural resources for their survival are generally most vulnerable but least able to adapt. The capacity to translate IKLK and experience into actions can require external support. Governments and other stakeholders can help by investing in early warning systems, providing climate information, realigning policies and incentives for sustainable management, investing in supporting infrastructures, alongside developing alternative livelihood options that are less exposed and sensitive to climate change. Involving all relevant stakeholders is important. For example, in China, the Grain for Green programme secured local engagement by paying people to manage the environment more sustainably. At a global level, important groups have emerged to cooperate and offer solutions around issues such as sand and dust storms, and integrated drought management. Efforts are needed across all scales from local to global to support sustainable development in desert and semiarid areas, given projected climate changes.

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