Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Sea level rise ===

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'''TS.D.7 The ability of societies and ecosystems to adapt to current coastal impacts to address present and future coastal risks under further acceleration of sea level rise depends on immediate and effective mitigation and adaptation actions that keep options open to further adapt (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Adaptation pathways break adaptation planning into manageable steps based on near-term, low-regret actions and aligning adaptation choices with societal goals that account for changing risk, interests and values, uncertain futures and the long-term commitment to adapting to sea level rise (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). In charting adaptation pathways, reconciling divergent interests and values is a priority (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 11.7.3, 13.10, 14.5.2, Box 14.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , CCB DEEP, CCB SLR }

'''TS.D.7.1 As the scale and pace of sea level rise accelerates beyond 2050, long-term adjustments may in some locations be beyond the limits of current adaptation options and for some species and some locations could be an existential risk in the 21st century (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Nature-based interventions, for example wetlands and salt marshes, can reduce impacts and costs while supporting biodiversity and livelihoods but have limits under high warming levels and rapid sea level rise ( ''high confidence'' ). Ecological limits and socioeconomic, financial and governance barriers will be reached first and are determined by the type of coastline and city or settlement ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' Accommodation can reduce impacts on people and assets but can address only limited sea level rise. Considering the long term now will help to avoid maladaptive lock-in, to build capacity to act in a timely and pre-emptive manner and to reduce risks to ecosystems and people. { 3.4.2, 3.6.3, 11.7.3, 13.2, 14.5.2, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , CCB DEEP, CCB SLR }

'''TS.D.7.2 Adaptation for coastal ecosystems requires space, networks and sediment to keep up with sea level rise (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' With higher warming, faster sea level rise and increasing human pressures due to coastal development, the ability to adapt decreases ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Adaptation options, such as providing sufficient space for a coastal system to migrate inland, when combined with ambitious and urgent mitigation measures, can reduce impacts, but they depend on the type of coastline and patterns of coastal development ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' With rapid sea level rise, these options will become insufficient to limit risks for marine ecosystems and their services such as food provision, coastal protection and carbon sequestration ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.11a) { 3.4.2, 3.5.5, 3.6.3, Box 3.4, 14.5.2, CCB SLR }

'''TS.D.7.3 A wide range of adaptation options exists for reducing the ongoing multi-faceted coastal risks in cities and settlements (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' A mix of infrastructure, nature-based, institutional and sociocultural interventions can best address the risks. The options include vulnerability-reducing measures, avoidance (e.g., disincentivising developments in high-risk areas and addressing existing social vulnerabilities), hard and soft protection (e.g., sea walls, coastal wetlands), accommodation (e.g., elevating houses), advance (e.g., building up and out to sea) and staged, managed retreat (e.g., landward movement of people and development) interventions ( ''very high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 11.3.5, Box 11.6, 12.5.5, 13.2, 14.5.2, 15.5.1, 15.5.2, 15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.5.5, 15.5.7, 17.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , CCB FEASIB, CCB SLR }

'''TS.D.7.4 Implementation of coastal adaptation can be delayed by competing public and private interests, trade-offs among development and conservation objectives, legacy development, policy inconsistencies, contradictory short- and long-term objectives and uncertainties on the timing and scale of impacts (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Local government barriers to coastal adaptation could lead to courts’ becoming ''de facto'' decision makers for local adaptation, and this could be compounded by legislative shortcomings and fragmentation, insufficient leadership, lack of coordination between governance levels and disagreement about financial responsibility ( ''high confidence'' ). { 11.7.3, 15.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] }

'''TS.D.7.5 Adaptation is costly, but the benefit-to-cost ratio is high for urbanised coastal areas with high concentrations of assets (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Protection has a high benefit-cost ratio during the 21st century but can become unaffordable and insufficient to reduce coastal risk (e.g., due to salinisation, drainage of rivers and excess water), reaching technical limits ( ''high confidence'' ). Hard protection sets up lock-in of assets and people to risks and reaches limits by the end of the century or sooner, depending on the scenario, local sea level rise effects and community tolerance thresholds ( ''high confidence'' ). Considering coastal retreat as part of the solution space could lower global adaptation costs but would result in large land losses and high levels of migration for South and Southeast Asia in particular and in relative terms, small island nations would suffer most ( ''high confidence'' ). Solutions include disincentivising developments in high-risk areas and addressing existing social vulnerabilities now ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.4.2, 3.5.5, 3.6.3, 5.13.4, 9.4.1, Box 11.6, 13.2, 14.5.3, 15.5.1, 15.5.2, 15.5.3, 16.5.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , CCB MIGRATE, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

'''TS.D.7.6 Prospects for addressing climate change compounded coastal hazard risk depend on the extent to which societal choices, and associated governance processes and practices, address the drivers and root causes of exposure and social vulnerability (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Many drivers and root causes of coastal risk are historically and institutionally embedded ( ''very high confidence'' ). When national and local authorities work with their communities, sustained risk reduction in the exposure and vulnerability of those most at risk is more likely ( ''high confidence'' ). Drawing on multiple knowledge systems helps in co-designing and co-producing more acceptable, effective and enduring responses. Reconciling divergent worldviews, values and interests can unlock the productive potential of conflict for transitioning towards pathways that foster climate resilient development, generate equitable adaptation outcomes and remove governance constraints ( ''high confidence'' ). Shared understanding and locally appropriate responses are enabled by deliberate experimentation, innovation and social learning ( ''medium confidence'' ). External assistance and government support can enhance community capabilities to reduce coastal hazard risk ( ''high confidence'' ). { 15.6.1, 17.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.1 CCP2.1] }

'''TS.D.7.7 Experience in coastal cities and settlements highlights critical enablers for addressing coastal hazard risk compounded by sea level rise (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These enablers include building and strengthening governance capacity and capabilities to tackle complex problems; taking a long-term perspective in making short-term decisions; enabling more effective coordination across scales, sectors and policy domains; reducing injustice, inequity and social vulnerability; and unlocking the productive potential of coastal conflict while strengthening local democracy ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Flexible options enable responses to be adjusted as climate risk escalates and circumstances change, which may increase exposure ( ''medium confidence'' ). Legal and financial provisions can enable managed retreat from the most at-risk locations ( ''medium confidence'' ) but require coordination, trust and legitimate decisions by and across policy domains and sectors ( ''high confidence'' ) that prioritise vulnerability, justice and equity ( ''medium confidence'' ). Inclusive, informed and meaningful deliberation and collaborative problem-solving depend on safe arenas for engagement by all stakeholders ( ''high confidence'' ). { CCP2.4, Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.1 CCP2.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , CCB SLR }

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