Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.4.3 Buildings ===

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Global final energy use inthe building sector increases in all pathways as a result of population growth and increasing affluence (Figure 3.24). There is very little difference in final energy intensity for the buildings sector across scenarios. Direct CO 2 emissions from the buildings sector vary more widely across temperature stabilisation levels than energy consumption. In 2100, scenarios above 3°C [C7–C8] still show an increase of CO 2 emissions from buildings around 29% above 2019, while all scenarios ''likely'' to limit warming to 2°C and below have emission reductions of around 85% (8–100%). Carbon intensity declines in all scenarios, but much more sharply as the warming level is reduced.

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'''Figure 3.24 | Buildings final energy (a), CO''' 2 '''emissions (b), carbon intensity (c), energy intensity (d), share of final energy from electricity (e), and share of final energy from gases (f).''' Energy intensity is final energy per unit of GDP. Carbon intensity is CO 2 emissions per EJ of final energy. The first four indicators are indexed to 2019, 12 where values less than 1 indicate a reduction.

In all scenarios, the share of electricity in final energy use increases, a trend that is accelerated by 2050 for the scenarios ''likely'' to limit warming to 2°C and below (Figure 3.23). By 2100, the low-warming scenarios show large shares of electricity in final energy consumption for buildings. The opposite is observed for gases.

While several global IAM models have developed their buildings modules considerably over the past decade ( [[#Daioglou--2012|Daioglou et al. 2012]] ; [[#Knobloch--2017|Knobloch et al. 2017]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ; [[#Edelenbosch--2021|Edelenbosch et al. 2021]] ; [[#Mastrucci--2021|Mastrucci et al. 2021]] ), the extremely limited availability of key sectoral variables in the AR6 scenarios database (such as floor space and energy use for individual services) prohibit a detailed analysis of sectoral dynamics. Individual studies in the literature often focus on single aspects of the buildings sector, though collectively providing a more comprehensive overview ( [[#Edelenbosch--2020|Edelenbosch et al. 2020]] ; [[#Ürge-Vorsatz--2020|Ürge-Vorsatz et al. 2020]] ). For example, energy demand is driven by economic development that fulfills basic needs ( [[#Mastrucci--2019|Mastrucci et al. 2019]] ; [[#Rao--2019a|Rao et al. 2019a]] ), but also drives up floor space in general ( [[#Daioglou--2012|Daioglou et al. 2012]] ; [[#Levesque--2018|Levesque et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mastrucci--2021|Mastrucci et al. 2021]] ) and ownership of energy-intensive appliances such as air conditioners ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; Colelli and Cian 2020; [[#Poblete-Cazenave--2021|Poblete-Cazenave et al. 2021]] ). These dynamics are heterogeneous and lead to differences in energy demand and emission mitigation potential across urban/rural buildings and income levels ( [[#Krey--2012|Krey et al. 2012]] ; [[#Poblete-Cazenave--2021|Poblete-Cazenave et al. 2021]] ). Mitigation scenarios rely on fuel switching and technology ( [[#Knobloch--2017|Knobloch et al. 2017]] ; [[#Dagnachew--2020|Dagnachew et al. 2020]] ), efficiency improvement in building envelopes ( [[#Levesque--2018|Levesque et al. 2018]] ; [[#Edelenbosch--2021|Edelenbosch et al. 2021]] ) and behavioural changes ( [[#van%20Sluisveld--2016|van Sluisveld et al. 2016]] ; [[#Niamir--2018|Niamir et al. 2018]] , 2020). The in-depth dynamics of mitigation in the building sector are explored in Chapter 9. [[#footnote-007|13]]

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