Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-1 (section)

== 1.10 Integrated Storyline of this Special Report ==

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The chapters that follow in this special report are framed around geographies or climatic processes where the ocean and/or cryosphere are particularly important for ecosystems and people. The chapter order follows the movement of water from Earth’s shrinking mountain and polar cryosphere into our rising and warming ocean.

Chapter 2 assesses ''High Mountain'' areas outside of the polar regions, where glaciers, snow and/or permafrost are common. Chapter 3 moves to the ''Polar Regions'' of the northern and southern high latitudes, which are characterised by vast stores of frozen water in ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves, sea ice and permafrost, and by the interaction of these cryosphere elements and the polar oceans. Chapter 4 examines ''Sea Level Rise'' and the hazards this brings to ''Low-Lying Regions, Coasts and Communities'' . Chapter 5 focuses on the ''Changing Ocean'' , with a particular focus on how climate change impacts on the ocean are altering ''Marine Ecosystems'' and affecting ''Dependent Communities'' . Chapter 6 is dedicated to assessing ''Extremes'' and ''Abrupt Events'' , and reflects the potential for rapid and possibly irreversible changes in Earth’s ocean and cryosphere, and the challenges this brings to ''Managing Risk'' . The multitude ways in which ''Low-Lying Islands and Coasts'' are exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of ocean and cryosphere change, along with resilience and adaptation strategies, opportunities and governance options specific to these settings, is highlighted in integrative Cross-Chapter Box 9.

This report does not attempt to assess all aspects of the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Examples of research themes that will be covered elsewhere in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle and not SROCC include: assessments of ocean and cryosphere changes in the CMIP6 experiments (AR6), cryosphere changes outside of polar and high mountain regions (e.g., snow cover in temperate and low altitude settings; AR6), and a thorough assessment of mitigation options for reducing climate change impacts (SR15, AR6 WGIII).

Each chapter of SROCC presents an integrated storyline on the ocean and/or cryosphere in a changing climate. The chapter assessments each present evidence of the pervasive changes that are already underway in the ocean and cryosphere (Figure 1.5). The impacts that physical changes in the ocean and cryosphere have had on ecosystems and people are assessed, along with lessons learned from adaptation measures that have already been employed to avoid adverse impacts. The assessments of future change in the ocean and cryosphere demonstrate the growing and accelerating changes projected for the future and identify the reduced impacts and risks that choices for a low greenhouse gas emission future would have compared with a high emission future (Figure 1.5). Potential adaptation strategies to reduce future risks to ecosystems and people are assessed, including identifying where limits to adaptation may be exceeded. The local- to global-scale responses for charting CRDPs are also assessed.

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'''Figure 1.5'''

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'''Figure 1.5 | Observed and modelled historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950, and projected future changes under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). Changes are shown for: (a) Global mean surface air temperature change with likely range (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). […]'''
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Figure 1.5 | Observed and modelled historical changes in the ocean and cryosphere since 1950, and projected future changes under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). Changes are shown for: (a) Global mean surface air temperature change with likely range (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). Ocean-related changes with very likely ranges for (b) Global mean sea surface temperature change (Box 5.1, Section 5.2.2); (c) Change factor in surface ocean marine heatwave days (6.4.1);<br />
(d) Global ocean heat content change (0–2000 m depth). An approximate steric sea level equivalent is shown with the right axis by multiplying the ocean heat content by the global-mean thermal expansion coefficient (ε ≈ 0.125 m per 1024 Joules) for observed warming since 1970 (Figure 5.1); (h) Global mean surface pH (on the total scale). Assessed observational trends are compiled from open ocean time series sites longer than 15 years (Box 5.1, Figure 5.6, Section 5.2.2); and (i) Global mean ocean oxygen change (100–600 m depth). Assessed observational trends span 1970–2010 centered on 1996 (Figure 5.8, Section 5.2.2). Sea-level changes with likely ranges for (m) Global mean sea level change. Hashed shading reflects low confidence in sea level projections beyond 2100 and bars at 2300 reflect expert elicitation on the range of possible sea level change (Section 4.2.3, Figure 4.2); and components from (e,f) Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (Section 3.3.1); and (g) Glacier mass loss (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 2, Table 4.1). Further cryosphere-related changes with very likely ranges for (j) Arctic sea ice extent change for September (Sections 3.2.1, 3.2.2 Figure 3.3); (k) Arctic snow cover change for June (land areas north of 60oN) (Sections 3.4.1, 3.4.2, Figure 3.10); and (l) Change in near-surface (within 3–4 m) permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere (Sections 3.4.1, 3.4.2, Figure 3.10).

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