Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.6.3 Shipping in the Arctic ===

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Shipping in the Arctic is a topic of increasing interest. The reduction of Arctic summer sea ice increases the access to the northern sea routes ( [[#Smith--2013|Smith and Stephenson 2013]] ; [[#Melia--2016|Melia et al. 2016]] ; [[#Aksenov--2017|Aksenov et al. 2017]] ; [[#Fox-Kemper--2021|Fox-Kemper et al. 2021]] ). Literature and public discourse has sometimes portrayed this trend as positive ( [[#Zhang--2016b|Zhang et al. 2016b]] ), as it allows for shorter shipping routes, for example between Asia and Europe, with estimated travel time savings of 25–40% ( [[#Aksenov--2017|Aksenov et al. 2017]] ). However, the acceleration of Arctic cryosphere melt and reduced sea ice that enable Arctic shipping reduce surface albedo and amplify climate warming ( [[#Eyring--2021|Eyring et al. 2021]] ). Furthermore, local air pollutants can play different roles in the Arctic. For example, black carbon emissions reduce albedo and absorb heat in air, on snow and ice ( [[#Browse--2013|Browse et al. 2013]] ; [[#Kang--2020|Kang et al. 2020]] ; [[#Messner--2020|Messner 2020]] ; [[#Eyring--2021|Eyring et al. 2021]] ). Finally, changing routing from Suez to the northern sea routes may reduce total emissions for a voyage, but also shifts emissions from low to high latitudes. Changing the location of the emissions adds complexity to the assessment of the climatic impacts of Arctic shipping, as the local conditions are different and the SLCF may have a different impact on clouds, precipitation, albedo and local environment ( [[#Dalsøren--2013|Dalsøren et al. 2013]] ; [[#Fuglestvedt--2014|Fuglestvedt et al. 2014]] ; [[#Marelle--2016|Marelle et al. 2016]] ). Observations have shown that 5–25% of air pollution in the Arctic stems from shipping activity within the Arctic itself ( [[#Aliabadi--2015|Aliabadi et al. 2015]] ). Emissions outside the Arctic can affect Arctic climate, and changes within the Arctic may have global climate impacts. Both modelling and observations have shown that aerosol emissions from shipping can have a significant effect on air pollution and shortwave radiative forcing ( [[#Ødemark--2012|Ødemark et al. 2012]] ; [[#Peters--2012|Peters et al. 2012]] ; [[#Dalsøren--2013|Dalsøren et al. 2013]] ; [[#Roiger--2014|Roiger et al. 2014]] ; [[#Righi--2015|Righi et al. 2015]] ; [[#Marelle--2016|Marelle et al. 2016]] ).

Increased Arctic shipping activity may also pose increased risks to local marine ecosystems and coastal communities from invasive species, underwater noise, and pollution ( [[#Halliday--2017|Halliday et al. 2017]] ; [[#IPCC--2019|IPCC 2019]] ). Greater levels of Arctic maritime transport and tourism have political, as well as socio-economic, implications for trade, and nations and economies reliant on the traditional shipping corridors. There has been an increase in activity from cargo, tankers, supply, and fishing vessels in particular ( [[#Winther--2014|Winther et al. 2014]] ; [[#Zhao--2015|Zhao et al. 2015]] ). Projections indicate more navigable Arctic waters in the coming decades ( [[#Smith--2013|Smith and Stephenson 2013]] ; [[#Melia--2016|Melia et al. 2016]] ) and continued increases in transport volumes through the northern sea routes ( [[#Corbett--2010|Corbett et al. 2010]] ; [[#Lasserre--2011|Lasserre and Pelletier 2011]] ; [[#Winther--2014|Winther et al. 2014]] ). Emission patterns and quantities, however, are also likely to change with future regulations from IMO, and depend on technology developments, and activity levels which may depend upon geopolitics, commodity pricing, trade, natural resource extraction, insurance costs, taxes, and tourism demand ( [[#Johnston--2017|Johnston et al. 2017]] ). The need to include indigenous peoples’ voices when shaping policies and governance of shipping activities in the high north is increasing ( [[#Dawson--2020|Dawson et al. 2020]] ).

The Arctic climate and environment pose unique hazards and challenges with regard to safe and efficient shipping operations: low temperature challenges, implications for vessel design, evacuation and rescue systems, communications, oil spills, variable sea ice, and meteorological conditions ( [[#Buixadé%20Farré--2014|Buixadé Farré et al. 2014]] ). To understand the total implications of shipping in the Arctic, including its climate impacts, a holistic view of synergies, trade-offs, and co-benefits is needed, with assessments of impacts on not only the physical climate, but also the local environment and ecosystems. To further ensure safe operations in the Arctic waters, close monitoring of activities may be valuable.

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