Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.2.5 Soil erosion and sediment load ====

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Working Group II of AR5 concluded that there is little or no observational evidence that soil erosion and sediment load have been altered significantly by climate change ( ''low to medium confidence'' ) (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r438|438]]</sup> . As the number of studies on climate change impacts on soil erosion has increased where rainfall is an important driver (Lu et al., 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r439|439]]</sup> , studies have increasingly considered other factors, such as rainfall intensity (e.g., Shi and Wang, 2015; Li and Fang, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r440|440]]</sup> , snow melt, and change in vegetation cover resulting from temperature rise (Potemkina and Potemkin, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r441|441]]</sup> , as well as crop management practices (Mullan et al., 2012) <sup>[[#fn:r442|442]]</sup> . WGII AR5 concluded that increases in heavy rainfall and temperature are projected to change soil erosion and sediment yield, although the extent of these changes is highly uncertain and depends on rainfall seasonality, land cover, and soil management practices (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r443|443]]</sup> .

While the number of published studies of climate change impacts on soil erosion have increased globally since 2000 (Li and Fang, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r444|444]]</sup> , few articles have addressed impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming. The existing studies have found few differences in projected risks posed on sediment load under 1.5°C and 2°C ( ''low confidence'' ) (Cousino et al., 2015; Shrestha et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r445|445]]</sup> . The differences between average annual sediment load under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming are not clear, owing to complex interactions among climate change, land cover/surface and soil management (Cousino et al., 2015; Shrestha et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r446|446]]</sup> . Averages of annual sediment loads are projected to be similar under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, in particular in the Great Lakes region in the USA and in the Lower Mekong region in Southeast Asia (Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter, Cousino et al., 2015; Shrestha et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r447|447]]</sup> .

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