Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-5 (section)

== Box 5.2 Sustainable solutions for food systems and climate change in Africa ==

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Climate change, land-use change, and food security are important aspects of sustainability policies in Africa. According to the McKinsey Global Institute (2010) <sup>[[#fn:r471|471]]</sup> , Africa has around 60% of the global uncultivated arable land; thus the continent has a high potential for transformative change in food production. With short and long-term climate change impacts combined with local poverty conditions, land degradation and poor farming practices, Africa cannot grow enough food to feed its rapidly growing population. Sustainable improvement of productivity is essential, even as the impacts of climate change on food security in Africa are projected to be multiple and severe.

Sustainable Land Management (SLM) of farming systems is important to address climate change while dealing with these daunting food security needs and the necessity to improve access to nutritious food to maintain healthy and active lives in Africa (AGRA 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r472|472]]</sup> ). SLM has functions beyond the production of food, such as delivery of water, protection against disease (especially zoonotic diseases), the delivery of energy, fibre and building materials.

Commodity-based systems – driven by external markets – are increasing in Africa (cotton, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, groundnuts) with important impacts on the use of land and climate. Land degradation, decreasing water resources, loss of biodiversity, excessive use of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides are some of the environmental challenges that influence preparedness to adapt to climate change (Pretty and Bharucha 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r473|473]]</sup> ). A balanced strategy on African agriculture can be based on SLM and multifunctional land-use approaches combining food production, cash crops, ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services delivery, and ILK.

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'''Figure 5.8'''

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'''Factors influencing sustainable food systems in Africa.'''
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[[File:4a6a578c8358062d3cdcad96f33c9472 Figure-5.8-1024x255.jpg]]

Factors influencing sustainable food systems in Africa.

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Thus, sustainable food systems in Africa entail multiple dimensions as shown in Figure 5.8.

With rapid urbanisation, it is important to integrate strategies (e.g., zero-carbon energy, smart irrigation systems, and climate- resilient agriculture) to minimise the negative effects of climate change while securing quality food for a growing population.

Building resilience into productivity and production can be based on simultaneous attention to the following five overarching issues:

# Closing yield gaps through adapted cultivars, sustainable land management combining production and preservation of ecosystems essential functions, such as sustainable intensification approaches based on conservation agriculture and community-based adaptation with functioning support services and market access (Mbow et al. 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r474|474]]</sup> ).
# Identifying sustainable land management practices (agroecology, agroforestry, etc.) addressing different ecosystem services (food production, biodiversity, reduction of GHG emissions, soil carbon sequestration) for improved land-based climate change adaptation and mitigation (Sanz et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r475|475]]</sup> ; Francis 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r476|476]]</sup> ).
# Paying attention to the food-energy-water nexus, especially water use and reutilisation efficiency but also management of rainwater (Albrecht et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r477|477]]</sup> ).
# Implementing institutional designs focused on youth and women through new economic models that help enable access to credit and loans to support policies that balance cash and food crops.
# Building on local knowledge, culture and traditions while seeking innovations for food waste reduction and transformation of agricultural products.

These aspects suppose both incremental and transformational adaptation that may stem from better infrastructure (storage and food processing), adoption of harvest and post-harvest technologies that minimise food waste, and development of new opportunities for farmers to respond to environmental, economic and social shocks that affect their livelihoods (Morton 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r478|478]]</sup> ).

Agriculture in Africa offers a unique opportunity for merging adaption to and mitigation of climate change with sustainable production to ensure food security (CCAFS 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r479|479]]</sup> ; FAO 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r480|480]]</sup> ). Initiatives throughout the food system on both the supply and demand sides can lead to positive outcomes.

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=== 5.3.2 Adaptation framing and key concepts ===

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==== 5.3.2.1 Autonomous, incremental, and transformational adaptation ====

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Framing of adaptation in this section categorises and assesses adaptation measures as autonomous, incremental, and transformational (Glossary and Table 5.3). Adaptation responses can be reactive or anticipatory.

'''Autonomous''' . Autonomous adaptation in food systems does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by changes in agroecosystems, markets, or welfare changes. It is also referred to as spontaneous adaptation (IPCC 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r481|481]]</sup> ). Examples of autonomous adaptation of rural populations have been documented in the Sahel (IRD 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r482|482]]</sup> ). In India, farmers are changing sowing and harvesting timing, cultivating short duration varieties, inter-cropping, changing cropping patterns, investing in irrigation, and establishing agroforestry. These are considered as passive responses or autonomous adaptation, because they do not acknowledge that these steps are taken in response to perceived climatic changes (Tripathi and Mishra 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r483|483]]</sup> ).

'''Incremental''' . Incremental adaptation maintains the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale (Park et al. 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r484|484]]</sup> ). Incremental adaptation focuses on improvements to existing resources and management practices (IPCC 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r485|485]]</sup> ).

'''Transformational''' . Transformational adaptation changes the fundamental attributes of a socio-ecological system either in anticipation of, or in response to, climate change and its impacts (IPCC 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r486|486]]</sup> ). Transformational adaptation seeks alternative livelihoods and land-use strategies needed to develop new farming systems (Termeer et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r487|487]]</sup> ). For example, limitations in incremental adaptation among smallholder rice farmers in Northwest Costa Rica led to a shift from rice to sugarcane production due to decreasing market access and water scarcity (Warner et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r488|488]]</sup> ). Migration from the Oldman River Basin has been described as a transformational adaption to climate change in the Canadian agriculture sector (Hadarits et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r489|489]]</sup> ). If high-end scenarios of climate change eventuate, the food security of farmers and consumers will depend on how transformational change in food systems is managed. An integrated framework of adaptive transition – management of socio-technical transitions and adaptation to socio-ecological changes – may help build transformational adaptive capacity (Mockshell and Kamanda 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r490|490]]</sup> and Pant et al. 2015). Rippke et al. (2016) <sup>[[#fn:r491|491]]</sup> has suggested overlapping phases of adaptation needed to support transformational change in Africa.

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'''Table 5.3'''

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 '''Synthesis of food security related adaptation options to address climate risks'''

(IPCC 2014b <sup>[[#fn:r492|492]]</sup> ; Vermeulen et al. 2013, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1432|1432]]</sup> ; Burnham and Ma 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1433|1433]]</sup> ; Bhatta and Aggarwal 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1434|1434]]</sup> ).
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[[File:69c3348e1181ee7a5ec800cb16406304 table-5.3.png]]

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==== 5.3.2.2 Risk management ====

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Climate risks affect all pillars of food security, particularly stability because extreme events lead to strong variation to food access. The notion of risk is widely treated in IPCC reports (IPCC 2014c <sup>[[#fn:r493|493]]</sup> ) (see also Chapter 7 in this report). With food systems, many risks co-occur or reinforce each other, and this can limit effective adaptation planning as they require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of drivers and scales. For example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies will require more than systemic reviews of risk factors (Howden et al. 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r494|494]]</sup> ).

Integration of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) helps to minimise the overlap and duplication of projects and programmes (Nalau et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r495|495]]</sup> ). Recently, countries started integrating the concept of DRR and CCA. For instance, the Philippines introduced new legislation calling for CCA and DRR integration, as current policy instruments had been largely unsuccessful in combining agencies and experts across the two areas (Leon and Pittock 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r496|496]]</sup> ).

Studies reveal that the amplitude of interannual growing-season temperature variability is in general larger than that of long-term temperature change in many locations. Responding better to seasonal climate-induced food supply shocks therefore increases society’s capability to adapt to climate change. Given these backgrounds, seasonal crop forecasting and early response recommendations (based on seasonal climate forecasts), are emerging to strengthen existing operational systems for agricultural monitoring and forecasting (FAO 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r497|497]]</sup> ; Ceglar et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r498|498]]</sup> and Iizumi et al. 2018).

While adaptation and mitigation measures are intended to reduce the risk from climate change impacts in food systems, they can also be sources of risk themselves (e.g., investment risk, political risk) (IPCC 2014b <sup>[[#fn:r499|499]]</sup> ). Climate-related hazards are a necessary element of risks related to climate impacts but may have little or nothing to do with risks related to some climate policies/responses.

Adoption of agroecological practices could provide resilience for future shocks, spread farmer risk and mitigate the impact of droughts (Niles et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r500|500]]</sup> ) (Section 5.3.2.3). Traditionally, risk management is performed through multifunctional landscape approaches in which resource utilisation is planned across wide areas and local agreements on resource access. Multifunctionality permits vulnerable communities to access various resources at various times and under various risk conditions (Minang et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r501|501]]</sup> ).

In many countries, governmental compensation for crop-failure and financial losses are used to protect against risk of severe yield reductions. Both public and private sector groups develop insurance markets and improve and disseminate index-based weather insurance programmes. Catastrophe bonds, microfinance, disaster contingency funds, and cash transfers are other available mechanisms for risk management.

In summary, risk management can be accomplished through agroecological landscape approaches and risk sharing and transfer mechanisms, such as development of insurance markets and improved index-based weather insurance programmes ( ''high confidence'' ).

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==== 5.3.2.3 Role of agroecology and diversification ====

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Agroecological systems are integrated land-use systems that maintain species diversity in a range of productive niches. Diversified cropping systems and practicing traditional agroecosystems of crop production where a wide range of crop varieties are grown in various spatial and temporal arrangements, are less vulnerable to catastrophic loss (Zhu et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r502|502]]</sup> ). The use of local genetic diversity, soil organic matter enhancement, multiple-cropping or poly-culture systems, home gardening, and agroecological approaches can build resilience against extreme climate events (Altieri and Koohafkan 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r503|503]]</sup> ).

However, Nie et al. (2016) <sup>[[#fn:r504|504]]</sup> argued that while integrated crop-livestock systems present some opportunities such as control of weeds, pests and diseases, and environmental benefits, there are some challenges, including yield reduction, difficulty in pasture-cropping, grazing, and groundcover maintenance in high rainfall zones, and development of persistent weeds and pests.

Adaptation measures based on agroecology entail enhancement of agrobiodiversity; improvement of ecological processes and delivery of ecosystem services. They also entail strengthening of local communities and recognition of the role and value of ILK. Such practices can enhance the sustainability and resilience of agricultural systems by buffering climate extremes, reducing degradation of soils, and reversing unsustainable use of resources; outbreak of pests and diseases and consequently increase yield without damaging biodiversity. Increasing and conserving biological diversity such as soil microorganisms can promote high crop yields and sustain the environment (Schmitz et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r505|505]]</sup> ; Bhattacharyya et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r506|506]]</sup> ; Garibaldi et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r507|507]]</sup> ).

Diversification of many components of the food system is a key element for increasing performance and efficiency that may translate into increased resilience and reduced risks (integrated land management systems, agrobiodiversity, ILK, local food systems, dietary diversity, the sustainable use of indigenous fruits, neglected and underutilised crops as a food source) ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Makate et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r508|508]]</sup> ; Lin 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r509|509]]</sup> ; Awodoyin et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r510|510]]</sup> ).

The more diverse the food systems are, the more resilient they are in enhancing food security in the face of biotic and abiotic stresses. Diverse production systems are important for providing regulatory ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, soil erosion control, reduction of GHG emissions and control of hydrological processes (Chivenge et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r511|511]]</sup> ). Further options for adapting to change in both mean climate and extreme events are livelihood diversification (Michael 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r512|512]]</sup> ; Ford et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r513|513]]</sup> ), and production diversity (Sibhatu et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r514|514]]</sup> ).

Crop diversification, maintaining local genetic diversity, animal integration, soil organic matter management, water conservation, and harvesting the role of microbial assemblages. These types of farm management significantly affect communities in soil, plant structure, and crop growth in terms of number, type, and abundance of species (Morrison-Whittle et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r515|515]]</sup> ). Complementary strategies towards sustainable agriculture (ecological intensification, strengthening existing diverse farming systems and investment in ecological infrastructure) also address important drivers of pollinator decline (IPBES 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r516|516]]</sup> ).

Evidence also shows that, together with other factors, on-farm agricultural diversity can translate into dietary diversity at the farm level and beyond (Pimbert and Lemke 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r517|517]]</sup> ; Kumar et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r518|518]]</sup> ; Sibhatu et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r519|519]]</sup> ). Dietary diversity is important but not enough as an adaptation option, but results in positive health outcomes by increasing the variety of healthy products in people’s diets and reducing exposure to unhealthy environments.

Locally developed seeds and the concept of seed sovereignty can both help protect local agrobiodiversity and can often be more climate resilient than generic commercial varieties (Wattnem 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r520|520]]</sup> ; Coomes et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r521|521]]</sup> ; van Niekerk and Wynberg 2017; Vasconcelos et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r522|522]]</sup> ). Seed exchange networks and banks protect local agrobiodiversity and landraces, and can provide crucial lifelines when crop harvests fail (Coomes et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r523|523]]</sup> ; van Niekerk and Wynberg 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r524|524]]</sup> ; Vasconcelos et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r525|525]]</sup> ).

Related to locally developed seeds, neglected and underutilised species (NUS) can play a key role in increasing dietary diversity (high confidence) (Baldermann et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r526|526]]</sup> ; van der Merwe et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r527|527]]</sup> ; Kahane et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r528|528]]</sup> ; Muhanji et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r529|529]]</sup> ) (Box 5.3). These species can also improve nutritional and economic security of excluded social groups, such as tribals (Nandal and Bhardwaj 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r530|530]]</sup> ; Ghosh-Jerath et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r531|531]]</sup> ), indigent (Kucich and Wicht 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r532|532]]</sup> ) or rural populations (Ngadze et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r533|533]]</sup> ).

Dietary diversity has also been correlated ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) to agricultural diversity in small-holder and subsistence farms (Ayenew et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r534|534]]</sup> ; Jones et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r535|535]]</sup> ; Jones 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r536|536]]</sup> ; Pimbert and Lemke 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r537|537]]</sup> ), including both crops and animals, and has been proposed as a strategy to reduce micronutrient malnutrition in developing countries (Tontisirin et al. 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r538|538]]</sup> ). In this regard, the capacity of subsistence farming to supply essential nutrients in reasonable balance to the people dependent on them has been considered as a means of overcoming their nutrient limitations in sound agronomic and sustainable ways (Graham et al. 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r539|539]]</sup> ).

'''Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)''' . EbA is a set of nature-based methods addressing climate change adaptation and food security by strengthening and conserving natural functions, goods and services that benefit people. EbA approaches to address food security provide co-benefits such as contributions to health and improved diet, sustainable land management, economic revenue and water security. EbA practices can reduce GHG emissions and increase carbon storage (USAID 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r540|540]]</sup> ).

For example, agroforestry systems can contribute to improving food productivity while enhancing biodiversity conservation, ecological balance and restoration under changing climate conditions (Mbow et al. 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r541|541]]</sup> ; Paudela et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r542|542]]</sup> ; Newaj et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r543|543]]</sup> ; Altieri et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r544|544]]</sup> ). Agroforestry systems have been shown to reduce erosion through their canopy cover and their contribution to the micro-climate and erosion control (Sida et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r545|545]]</sup> ). Adoption of conservation farming practices such as removing weeds from and dredging irrigation canals, draining and levelling land, and using organic fertilisation were among the popular conservation practices in small-scale paddy rice farming community of northern Iran (Ashoori and Sadegh 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r546|546]]</sup> ).

Adaptation potential of ecologically-intensive systems includes also forests and river ecosystems, where improved resource management such as soil conservation, water cycling and agrobiodiversity support the function of food production affected by severe climate change (Muthee et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r547|547]]</sup> ). The use of non-crop plant resources in agroecosystems (permaculture, perennial polyculture) can improve ecosystem conservation and may lead to increased crop productivity (Balzan et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r548|548]]</sup> ; Crews et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r549|549]]</sup> ; Toensmeier 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r550|550]]</sup> ).

In summary, increasing the resilience of the food system through agroecology and diversification is an effective way to achieve climate change adaptation (robust evidence, high agreement). Diversification in the food system is a key adaptation strategy to reduce risks (e.g., implementation of integrated production systems at landscape scales, broad-based genetic resources, and heterogeneous diets) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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