Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== 5.5.1 Observed Impacts ===

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Climate change affects livestock productivity and production in many ways ( [[#Porter--2014|Porter et al., 2014]] ; [[#Rojas-Downing--2017|Rojas-Downing et al., 2017]] ). Evidence is accumulating that rising temperatures are increasing heat stress in domestic species and affecting productivity ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Das--2016b|Das et al., 2016b]] ; [[#Godde--2021|Godde et al., 2021]] ).

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==== 5.5.1.1 Pastoral systems ====

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Many grassland-based livestock systems are vulnerable to climate change and increases in climate variability ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Dasgupta--2014|Dasgupta et al., 2014]] ; [[#Sloat--2018|Sloat et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stanimirova--2019|Stanimirova et al., 2019]] ). Decadal vegetation changes from warming and drying trends have been detected in North American grasslands, with implications for species composition, rangeland quality and economic viability of grazing livestock ( [[#Rondeau--2018|Rondeau et al., 2018]] ; [[#Reeves--2020|Reeves et al., 2020]] ). Feed quality in South Asian grasslands has been negatively affected, reducing food security ( [[#Rasul--2019|Rasul et al., 2019]] ). Increased grassland degradation has been observed in parts of Inner Mongolia ( [[#Nandintsetseg--2021|Nandintsetseg et al., 2021]] ). Changing seasonality, increasing frequency of drought and rising temperatures are affecting pastoral systems globally ( ''high confidence'' ). These and other drivers are reducing herd mobility, decreasing productivity, increasing incidence of vector borne diseases and parasites, and reducing access to water and feed ( ''high agreement'' , ''medium evidence'' ) ( [[#López-i-Gelats--2016|López-i-Gelats et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vidal-González--2018|Vidal-González and Nahhass, 2018]] ; [[#de%20Leeuw--2020|de Leeuw et al., 2020]] ).

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==== 5.5.1.2 Livestock distribution and climate variability ====

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There is ''limited evidence'' of observed distributional changes in livestock species due to climate changes. Asian buffalo and yak breeds in China over the past 50 years have shifted distribution partly because of increases in heat stress ( [[#Wu--2015|Wu, 2015]] ; [[#Wu--2016|Wu, 2016]] ). Nepalese cattle numbers have declined, attributed to increases in the number of hot days ( [[#Koirala--2017|Koirala and Shrestha, 2017]] ).

Climate variability has been identified as the primary cause of vegetation cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau since 2000 ( [[#Lehnert--2016|Lehnert et al., 2016]] ). Increasing inter-annual variability is a driver of farm extensification in Mediterranean dairy systems ( [[#Dono--2016|Dono et al., 2016]] ). In Australian rangelands ( [[#Godde--2019|Godde et al., 2019]] ) and dairy systems ( [[#Harrison--2016|Harrison et al., 2016]] ; [[#Harrison--2017|Harrison et al., 2017]] ), increasing rainfall variability contributes more to stocking rate and profitability variability than changes in mean rainfall.

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==== 5.5.1.3 Diseases and disease vectors ====

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Climate change is affecting the transmission of vector-borne diseases ( [[#Hutter--2018|Hutter et al., 2018]] ; [[#Semenza--2018|Semenza and Suk, 2018]] ) and parasites ( [[#Rinaldi--2015|Rinaldi et al., 2015]] ) in high latitudes ( ''high confidence'' ). Different processes link climate change and infectious diseases in domesticated livestock. Some show a positive association between temperature and range expansion of arthropod vectors that spread the bluetongue virus. Others show a contraction, such as tsetse flies that transmit trypanosome parasites of several livestock species. Positive associations have been found between temperature and the spread of pathogens such as anthrax, and droughts and ENSO weather patterns and Rift Valley fever outbreaks in East Africa ( [[#Bett--2017|Bett et al., 2017]] ). Observed range expansion of economically important tick disease vectors in North America (Sonenshine, 2018) and Africa ( [[#Nyangiwe--2018|Nyangiwe et al., 2018]] ) are presenting new public health threats to humans and livestock.

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