Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-3 (section)

=== FAQ CCP3.2 | How will climate change impact the world’s drylands and their people? ===

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''Climate change is projected to lead to higher temperatures across global drylands. Many drylands also risk more irregular rainfall leading to increased irregularity in crop yields and increased water insecurity where less rainfall is projected, which may have profound implications for both dryland ecosystems and their human inhabitants.''

There is, however, considerable uncertainty about the changes that may occur in drylands in the future and how people and ecosystems will be affected. In some drylands, higher temperatures and declining rainfall have increased aridity. However, this is not a global trend as many drylands are experiencing increases in vegetation cover and rainfall. Both the amount of rainfall and its seasonality have changed in many dryland areas, associated with natural variability and warming.

Most climate models project increased rainfall in tropical drylands, but more variability. High natural climatic variability in drylands makes predictions uncertain. Understanding future impacts is further complicated by many interacting factors such as land use change and urbanisation that affect the condition of drylands. Future trends in sand and dust storm activity are also uncertain and will not be the same everywhere, but there will likely be increases in some regions (e.g., the USA) in the long term. The impacts of climate change in deserts and semiarid areas may have substantial implications globally: for agriculture, biodiversity, health, trade and poverty, as well as potentially, for conflicts and migration. Increasing temperatures and more irregular rainfall are expected to affect soil and water and contribute to tree death and loss of biodiversity. In other places, woody encroachment onto savannas may increase, in response to the combination of land use change, changes in rainfall, fire suppression and CO 2 fertilization. Crop yields are projected to decline in some areas, with adverse impacts on food security. The potential for conflicts and migration is primarily associated with socioeconomic development, while links to climate change remain uncertain and lack evidence.

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FAQ 5.1

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