Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.5.3.2 Technological Change has Accelerated Since AR5 ====

<div id="h3-13-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Figure 2.22 shows changes in the costs of four dynamic energy technologies. One can see rapid changes since AR5, cost data for which ended in 2010. Solar PV is by far the most dynamic technology, and its cost since AR5 has continued on its steep decline at about the same rate of change as before AR5, but now costs are well within the range of fossil fuels ( ''high confidence'' ) (Chapter 6). Very few concentrating solar power (CSP) plants had been built between the 1980s and 2012. Since AR5, 4GW have been built and costs have fallen by half. Onshore wind has continued its pace of cost reductions such that it is well within the range of fossil fuels. Offshore wind has changed the most since AR5. Whereas costs were increasing before AR5, they have decreased by 50% since. None of these technologies shows indications of reaching a limit in their cost reductions. Crucial to their impact will be extending these gains in the electricity and transportation sectors to the industrial sector ( [[#Davis--2018|Davis et al. 2018]] ).

<div id="_idContainer056" class="Basic-Text-Frame"></div>

[[File:e9c50ea82434853d62f95c3309677bc7 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_2_22.png]]

Figure 2.22 '''| Unit cost reductions and use in some rapidly changing mitigation technologies.''' The '''top panel''' shows global costs per unit of energy (USD per MWh) for some rapidly changing mitigation technologies. Solid blue lines indicate average unit cost in each year. Light blue shaded areas show the range between the 5th and 95th percentiles in each year. Grey shading indicates the range of unit costs for new fossil fuel (coal and gas) power in 2020 (corresponding to USD55–148 per MWh). In 2020, the levelised costs of energy (LCOE) of the four renewable energy technologies could compete with fossil fuels in many places. For batteries, costs shown are for 1 kWh of battery storage capacity; for the others, costs are LCOE, which includes installation, capital, operations, and maintenance costs per MWh of electricity produced. The literature uses LCOE because it allows consistent comparisons of cost trends across a diverse set of energy technologies to be made. However, it does not include the costs of grid integration or climate impacts. Further, LCOE does not take into account other environmental and social externalities that may modify the overall (monetary and non-monetary) costs of technologies and alter their deployment. The '''bottom panel''' shows cumulative global adoption for each technology, in GW of installed capacity for renewable energy and in millions of vehicles for battery-electric vehicles. A vertical dashed line is placed in 2010 to indicate the change since AR5. Shares of electricity produced and share of passenger vehicle fleet are indicated in text for 2020 based on provisional data, i.e., percentage of total electricity production (for PV, onshore wind, offshore wind, CSP) and of total stock of passenger vehicles (for EVs). The electricity production share reflects different capacity factors; for example, for the same amount of installed capacity, wind produces about twice as much electricity as solar PV. {2.5, 6.4} Renewable energy and battery technologies were selected as illustrative examples because they have recently shown rapid changes in costs and adoption, and because consistent data are available. Other mitigation options assessed in the report are not included as they do not meet these criteria.

<div id="2.5.3.3" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="granular-technologies-improve-faster"></span>