Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.4.5 Industry [[#footnote-004|16]] ===

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Reference scenarios show declines in energy intensity, but increases in final energy use in the industrial sector ( [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] ). These scenarios show increases in CO 2 emissions both for the total industrial sector ( [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] , 2020; [[#Luderer--2018|Luderer et al. 2018]] ) and individual subsectors such as cement and iron and steel ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2016|van Ruijven et al. 2016]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2021|van Sluisveld et al. 2021]] ) or chemicals ( [[#Daioglou--2014|Daioglou et al. 2014]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2021|van Sluisveld et al. 2021]] ).

In mitigation pathways, CO 2 emissions reductions are achieved through a combination of energy savings (via energy-efficiency improvements and energy conservation), structural change, fuel switching, and decarbonisation of fuels ( [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] , 2020; [[#Grubler--2018|Grubler et al. 2018]] ; [[#Luderer--2018|Luderer et al. 2018]] ). Mitigation pathways show reductions in final energy for industry compared to the baseline ( [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] ; [[#Luderer--2018|Luderer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Edelenbosch--2020|Edelenbosch et al. 2020]] ) and reductions in the carbon intensity of the industrial sector through both fuel switching and the use of CCS ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2016|van Ruijven et al. 2016]] ; [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] , 2020; [[#Luderer--2018|Luderer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Paltsev--2021|Paltsev et al. 2021]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2021|van Sluisveld et al. 2021]] ). The mitigation potential differs depending on the industrial subsector and the availability of CCS, with larger potential reductions in the steel sector ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2016|van Ruijven et al. 2016]] ) and cement industry ( [[#Sanjuán--2020|Sanjuán et al. 2020]] ) than in the chemicals sector ( [[#Daioglou--2014|Daioglou et al. 2014]] ). Many scenarios, including stringent mitigation scenarios, show continued growth in final energy; however, the carbon intensity of energy declines in all mitigation scenarios (Figure 3.26).

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[[File:6049af528c34f6efb0e6bd13f09312ff IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_3_26.png]]

'''Figure 3.26 | Industrial final energy, including feedstocks (a), CO''' 2 '''emissions (b), carbon intensity (c), energy intensity (d), share of final energy from electricity (e), and share of final energy from gases (f).''' Energy intensity is final energy per unit of GDP. Carbon intensity is CO 2 emissions per EJ of final energy. The first four indicators are indexed to 2019, 15 where values less than 1 indicate a reduction. Industrial sector CO 2 emissions include fuel combustion emissions only.

The representation of the industry sector is very aggregated in most IAMs, with only a small subset of models disaggregating key sectors such as cement, fertiliser, chemicals, and iron and steel ( [[#Daioglou--2014|Daioglou et al. 2014]] ; [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] ; [[#Pauliuk--2017|Pauliuk et al. 2017]] ; [[#Napp--2019|Napp et al. 2019]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2021|van Sluisveld et al. 2021]] ). IAMs often account for both energy combustion and feedstocks ( [[#Edelenbosch--2017b|Edelenbosch et al. 2017b]] ), but IAMs typically ignore material flows and miss linkages between sectors ( [[#Pauliuk--2017|Pauliuk et al. 2017]] ; [[#Kermeli--2019|Kermeli et al. 2019]] ). By excluding these processes, IAMs misrepresent the mitigation potential of the industry sector, for example by overlooking mitigation from material efficiency and circular economies ( [[#Sharmina--2020|Sharmina et al. 2020]] ), which can have substantial mitigation potential (Sections 5.3.4 and 11.3).

Sectoral studies indicate a large mitigation potential in the industrial sector by 2050, including the potential for net zero CO 2 emissions for steel, plastics, ammonia, and cement ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.4.1|Section 11.4.1]] ). Detailed industry sector pathways show emissions reductions between 39% and 94% by mid-century compared to the present day [[#footnote-003|17]] ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.4.2|Section 11.4.2]] ) and a substantial increase in direct electrification ( [[#IEA--2021a|]] [[#IEA--2021|IEA 2021]] a ). IAMs show comparable mitigation potential to sectoral studies with median reductions in CO 2 emissions between 2019 and 2050 of 70% in scenarios ''likely'' to limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) and below and a maximum reduction of 96% (Figure 3.26). Some differences between IAMs and sectoral models can be attributed to differences in technology availability, with IAMs sometimes including more technologies ( [[#van%20Ruijven--2016|van Ruijven et al. 2016]] ) and sometimes less ( [[#Sharmina--2020|Sharmina et al. 2020]] ).

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