Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-8 (section)

===== Pathways and trade-offs of electrification in urban systems =====

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Urbanisation and population density are one of the key drivers for enabling access to electricity across the world, with benefits for sustainable development ( [[#Aklin--2018|Aklin et al. 2018]] ). Grid-connected PV systems for urban locations that currently lack electricity access can allow urban areas to leapfrog based on green electrification ( [[#Abid--2021|Abid et al. 2021]] ). In the Global South, the conversion of public transport to electric transport, especially municipal buses (e.g., Bengaluru, India; Jakarta, Indonesia; Medellín, Colombia; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Quito, Ecuador) and micro-mobility (e.g., e-trikes in Manila, Philippines) have been quantified based on reductions in GHG and PM 2.5 emissions, avoided premature deaths, and increases in life expectancies ( [[#IEA--2014|IEA 2014]] ; [[#C40%20Cities--2018|C40 Cities 2018]] , 2020b,c,d,e). In 22 Latin American cities, converting 100% of buses and taxis in 2030 to electric was estimated to result in a reduction of 300 MtCO 2 -eq compared to 2017 ( [[#ONU%20Medio%20Ambiente--2017|ONU Medio Ambiente 2017]] ). Yet the scaling up of electric vehicles in cities can be examined within a larger set of possible social objectives, such as reducing congestion and the prioritisation of other forms of mobility.

Electrification requires a layering of policies at the national, state, and local levels. Cities have roles as policy architects, including transit planning (e.g., EV targets and low-emission zones, restrictions on the types of energy use in new buildings), implementers (e.g., building codes and compliance checking, financial incentives to encourage consumer uptake of EVs and heat pumps), and complementary partners to national and state policymaking (e.g., permitting or installation of charging infrastructure) ( [[#Broekhoff--2015|Broekhoff et al. 2015]] ). The number of cities that have instituted e-mobility targets that aim for a certain percentage of EVs sold, in circulation or registered, is increasing ( [[#REN21--2021|REN21 2021]] ). Realising the mitigation potential of electrification will require fiscal and regulatory policies and public investment ( [[#Hall--2017a|Hall et al. 2017a]] ; [[#Deason--2019|Deason and Borgeson 2019]] ; [[#Wappelhorst--2020|Wappelhorst et al. 2020]] ) ( [[#8.5|Section 8.5]] ).

EVs are most rapidly deployed when there has been a suite of policies, including deployment targets, regulations and use incentives (e.g., zero-emission zone mandates, fuel economy standards, building codes), financial incentives (e.g., vehicles, chargers), industrial policies (e.g., subsidies), and fleet procurement ( [[#IEA--2016b|IEA 2016b]] , 2017, 2018, 2020a; [[#Cazzola--2019|Cazzola et al. 2019]] ). The policy mix has included mandates for bus deployment, purchase subsidies, or split ownership of buses and chargers ( [[#IEA--2021b|IEA 2021b]] ) (Chapter 10). Subsidies are often critical to address the often-higher upfront costs of electric devices. In other instances, the uptake of electric induction stoves was increased through government credit and allotment of free electricity ( [[#Martínez--2017|Martínez et al. 2017]] ; [[#Gould--2018|Gould et al. 2018]] ).

Bringing multiple stakeholders together in local decision-making for smart energy systems requires effort beyond usual levels while multi-actor settings can be increased to enable institutional conditions ( [[#Lammers--2019|Lammers and Hoppe 2019]] ). Public participation and community involvement in the planning, design and operation of urban energy projects can be an enabler of decarbonising local energy demands ( [[#Corsini--2019|Corsini et al. 2019]] ). Cooperation across institutions is important for municipalities that are engaged in strategic energy planning and implementation for smart energy systems ( [[#Krog--2019|Krog 2019]] ) ( [[#8.5|Section 8.5]] ).

Electrification technologies can present potential trade-offs that can be minimised through governance strategies, smart grid technologies, circular economy practices, and international cooperation. One consideration is the increase in electricity demand ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.3.1.1|Section 5.3.1.1]] ). Across 23 megacities in the world (population greater than 10 million people), electrification of the entire gasoline vehicle fleet could increase electricity demand on average by 18% ( [[#Kennedy--2018|Kennedy et al. 2018]] ). How grid capacity will be impacted is dependent on the match between daily electricity loads and supply ( [[#Tarroja--2018|Tarroja et al. 2018]] ). Materials recycling of electrification technologies is also key to minimising potential environmental and social costs ( [[#Church--2018|Church and Crawford 2018]] ; [[#Gaustad--2018|Gaustad et al. 2018]] ; [[#Sovacool--2020|Sovacool et al. 2020]] ) and can ensure electrification reaches its complete mitigation potential. Circular economy strategies are particularly valuable to this goal by creating closed-loop supply chains through recycling, material recovery, repair, and reuse. For instance, the PV CYCLE programme in Europe prevented more than 30,000 metric tonnes of renewable technology from reaching the waste stream ( [[#Sovacool--2020|Sovacool et al. 2020]] ) (Box 10.6 and ‘circular economy’ in Glossary).

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