Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

== 13.5 Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products ==

<div id="13.5.1" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="observed-impacts-and-projected-risks-3"></span>
=== 13.5.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks ===

<div id="h2-14-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

<div id="13.5.1.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="crop-production"></span>
==== 13.5.1.1 Crop Production ====

<div id="h3-11-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Agriculture is the primary user of land in Europe. In 2013, Europe provided 28% of cereals, 59% of sugar beet and 60% of wine produced globally, as well as being part of a globalised food system with a third of the commodities produced and consumed in Europe traded internationally ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro-climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Warming and precipitation changes since 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and barley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Ray--2015|Ray et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2017|Ceglar et al., 2017]] ). Heat stress has increased in SEU in spring, in summer throughout Central and Southern Europe, and recently expanded into the southern boreal zone ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Drought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and heat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause economic losses in forest productivity ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), annual and permanent crops, and livestock farming ( [[#Stahl--2016|Stahl et al., 2016]] ), including losses in wheat production in the EU ( [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ) and EEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ivanov--2016|Ivanov et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loboda--2017|Loboda et al., 2017]] ), with the severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over the past 50 years ( [[#Brás--2021|Brás et al., 2021]] ). Meteorological extremes due to compound effects of cold winters, excessive autumn and spring precipitation, and summer drought caused production losses (up to 30% relative to trend expectations) in 2012, 2016 and 2018 ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ; [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zscheischler--2018|Zscheischler et al., 2018]] ; [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ) that were exceptional compared with recent decades ( [[#Webber--2020|Webber et al., 2020]] ). Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of field-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes and cucumbers ( [[#Potopová--2017|Potopová et al., 2017]] ) and earlier flowering of olive trees ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Garcia-Mozo--2015|Garcia-Mozo et al., 2015]] ). Delayed harvest, due to both wet conditions and earlier harvests in Central Europe in response to warming, has impacted wine quality ( [[#Cook--2016|Cook and Wolkovich, 2016]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2016|van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016]] ; [[#Di%20Lena--2019|Di Lena et al., 2019]] ).

Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is increasing since AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Donatelli--2015|Donatelli et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ). At 1.5°C GWL, compound events which led to recent large wheat losses are projected to become 12% more frequent ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ). Growing regions will shift northward or expand for melons ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 under 1.5°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hannah--2013|Hannah et al., 2013]] ; [[#Litskas--2019|Litskas et al., 2019]] ), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese cabbage and French beans ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ) ( ''medium confidence'' ). In response to 2°C GWL, agro-climatic zones in Europe are expected to move northward 25–135 km per decade, fastest in EEU ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Negative impacts of warming and drought are counterbalanced by CO 2 fertilisation for crops such as winter wheat ( ''medium confidence, medium agreement'' ), resulting in some regional yield increases with climate change ( [[#Zhao--2017|Zhao et al., 2017]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ).

Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4°C GWL, with lower losses or gains in the north ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.5; [[#Trnka--2014|Trnka et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2016|Webber et al., 2016]] ; [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ). The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ) with yield losses across Europe of 10–25% at 1.5°C–2°C GWL and 50–100% at 4°C GWL ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ).

Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Siebert--2017|Siebert et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Irrigation can reduces projected heat and drought stress, for example, for wheat and maize ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ), but use is limited by water availability (KR3, [[#13.10.2|Section 13.10.2]] ). The advantages of a longer growing season in NEU and EEU are outbalanced by the increased risk of early spring and summer heatwaves ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ).

Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association of pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Caffarra--2012|Caffarra et al., 2012]] ; [[#Pushnya--2015|Pushnya and Shirinyan, 2015]] ; [[#Latchininsky--2017|Latchininsky, 2017]] ) with high risk for contamination of cereals ( [[#Moretti--2019|Moretti et al., 2019]] ). Regionally predicted reduction in rainfall ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) can lead to carryover of herbicides ( [[#Karkanis--2018|Karkanis et al., 2018]] ).

Net yield losses will reduce economic output from agriculture in the EU, reaching a reduction of 7% for the EU and the UK combined, and 10% in SEU at 4°C GWL ( [[#Naumann--2021|Naumann et al., 2021]] ). Farmland values are projected to decrease by 5–9% per degree of warming in SEU ( [[#Van%20Passel--2017|Van Passel et al., 2017]] ). Increased heat and drought stress, and reduced irrigation water availability, will decrease profitability and cause abandonment of farmland in SEU ( ''limited evidence, low confidence'' ) ( [[#Holman--2017|Holman et al., 2017]] ).

<div id="13.5.1.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="livestock-production"></span>
==== 13.5.1.2 Livestock Production ====

<div id="h3-12-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Heat and humidity affect livestock, such as dairy cows and goats, directly exposed in open barns and outdoors ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bernabucci--2014|Bernabucci et al., 2014]] ; [[#Silanikove--2015|Silanikove and Koluman, 2015]] ), and cold-adapted husbandry ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Box 13.2; [[#13.8.3|Section 13.8.3]] ). Heat impacts animal health ( [[#Sanker--2013|Sanker et al., 2013]] ; [[#Lambertz--2014|Lambertz et al., 2014]] ), nutrition, behaviour and welfare ( [[#Heinicke--2019|Heinicke et al., 2019]] ), performance and product quality ( [[#Gauly--2020|Gauly and Ammer, 2020]] ). Climate change also impacts grassland production, fodder composition and quality, particularly in SEU ( [[#Dumont--2015|Dumont et al., 2015]] ) and EEU ( [[#Bezuglova--2020|Bezuglova et al., 2020]] ), as well as alters the prevalence, distribution and load of pathogens and their vectors ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.4.2.7.3|Section 2.4.2.7.3]] ; [[#Morgan--2013|Morgan et al., 2013]] ; [[#Charlier--2016|Charlier et al., 2016]] ). Projected impacts on poultry and pigs are low due to temperature control in large parts of Europe, but are greater in SEU where open systems prevail (Chapter 5).

Warming increases the pasture growing season and farming period in NEU and at higher altitudes ( [[#Fuhrer--2014|Fuhrer et al., 2014]] ), while longer drought periods and thunderstorms can influence abandonment of remote Alpine pastures, reducing cultural and landscape ecosystem services and losing traditional farming practices ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#13.8.3|Section 13.8.3]] ; [[#Herzog--2018|Herzog and Seidl, 2018]] ). At 2–4°C GWL grassland biomass production for forage-fed animals will increase in NEU and the northern Alps, while forage production will decrease in SEU and the southern Alps due to heat and water scarcity ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ; [[#Jäger--2020|Jäger et al., 2020]] ), causing regional reductions of cow milk production in WCE and SEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Silanikove--2015|Silanikove and Koluman, 2015]] ).

<div id="13.5.1.3" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="aquatic-food-production"></span>
==== 13.5.1.3 Aquatic Food Production ====

<div id="h3-13-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Seafood production in Europe provides jobs for &gt;250,000 people, predominantly in SEU ( [[#Carvalho--2017|Carvalho et al., 2017]] ). Marine fisheries contribute 80% to European aquatic food production, while marine aquaculture provides 18% and freshwater production 3% ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). The Russian Federation provides 25% of seafood production in Europe ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Climate change has impacted European marine food production ( ''high confidence'' ); however, extraction is still the major impact on commercially important fish stocks in Europe ( [[#Mullon--2016|Mullon et al., 2016]] ), with 69% of stocks overfished and 51% outside safe biological limits ( [[#Froese--2018|Froese et al., 2018]] ). The North Sea, the Iberian Coastal Sea and the Celtic Sea–Biscay Shelf are globally among the areas most negatively affected by warming with losses of 15–35% in maximum sustainable yields (MSY) during recent decades ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ). Warming has caused ongoing northward movement and range expansion of Northeast Atlantic fish stocks ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; [[#Baudron--2020|Baudron et al., 2020]] ). In the North Sea, cuttlefish ( [[#van%20der%20Kooij--2016|van der Kooij et al., 2016]] ; [[#Oesterwind--2020|Oesterwind et al., 2020]] ) and tuna ( [[#Bennema--2018|Bennema, 2018]] ; [[#Faillettaz--2019|Faillettaz et al., 2019]] ) have become new target species ( ''medium confidence'' ). In SEU, warm-water species increasingly dominate fisheries landings ( [[#Fortibuoni--2015|Fortibuoni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Teixeira--2016|Teixeira et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vasilakopoulos--2017|Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017]] ).

European countries are assessed to be globally among the least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries-related food security risks ( ''high confidence'' ) due to low levels of exposure to climate hazards, low dependency of economies on fisheries and a high adaptive capacity ( [[#Barange--2014|Barange et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ). European freshwater production is suggested to be less vulnerable than marine sectors and marine production vulnerability increases with latitude ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). In the aquaculture sector, Norway is highly vulnerable due to the high sensitivity of salmon farming to warming and high per-capita production ( [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ). In the fisheries sector, vulnerability for fishing communities is highest in SEU and the UK (Figure 13.9A; [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ), while for aquaculture sectors, it is highest in SEU and some NEU and WCE countries (Figure 13.9B, 2020).

Future vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities are projected to strongly vary regionally and between major fisheries and aquaculture species (Figure 13.13 c,d; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ). Assuming MSY management, projections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks in European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between 1.5°C and 4.0°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.13; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ). In response to 4°C GWL, higher trophic-level biomass is projected to increase in the SEUS mainly due to increases in small pelagic and thermophilic, often exotic, species ( [[#Moullec--2019|Moullec et al., 2019]] ).

<div id="_idContainer041" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:74a6b365e399cdab41088836030882a5 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_013.png]]

'''Figure 13.13 |''' '''Future vulnerability and risks for aquatic food production:'''

'''(a)''' vulnerability for fisheries in 105 coastal regions across 26 countries based on biological traits and physiological metrics of 556 resource populations ( [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] );

'''(b)''' vulnerability of major aquaculture species in European countries on physiological attributes, farming methods and economic output ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] );

'''(c,d)''' differences (%) between projected changes for 1.5°C and 4°C GWL ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ), with '''(c)''' changes in abundance of major fish species by region, and '''(d)''' changes in productivity of major aquaculture species by country

Ocean acidification ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk for marine food production in Europe under 4°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ), affecting recruitment of important European fish stocks, such as those of cod in the Western Baltic and Barents Sea, by 8 and 24%, respectively (Swat et al., 2018b; [[#Stiasny--2018|Stiasny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Voss--2019|Voss et al., 2019]] ). Acidification is also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and aquaculture in Europe with 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Fernandes--2017|Fernandes et al., 2017]] ; [[#Narita--2017|Narita and Rehdanz, 2017]] ; [[#Mangi--2018|Mangi et al., 2018]] ).

<div id="13.5.1.4" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="forestry-and-forest-products"></span>
==== 13.5.1.4 Forestry and Forest Products ====

<div id="h3-14-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Climate change is altering the structure and function of European forests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , as well as through interaction with pests and fire ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ; [[#Moreno--2018|Moreno et al., 2018]] ; [[#Morin--2018|Morin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ; [[#Orlova-Bienkowskaja--2020|Orlova-Bienkowskaja et al., 2020]] ). Species-specific responses of trees to drier summers ( [[#Vitali--2018|Vitali et al., 2018]] ) shape regional variability in European forest productivity in response to water and nutrient availability, heatwave and evaporative demand ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kellomäki--2018|Kellomäki et al., 2018]] ). While warming and extended growing seasons have positive impacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU ( [[#Pretzsch--2014|Pretzsch et al., 2014]] ; [[#Matskovsky--2020|Matskovsky et al., 2020]] ), EEU ( [[#Tei--2017|Tei et al., 2017]] ) and higher altitude ( [[#Sedmáková--2019|Sedmáková et al., 2019]] ), drought stress across Europe has been increasing ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Primicia--2015|Primicia et al., 2015]] ; [[#Marqués--2018|Marqués et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ruiz-Pérez--2020|Ruiz-Pérez and Vico, 2020]] ). Combined with land use, climate change has increased large-scale forest mortality since the 1980s ( [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ). Extreme events, such as the 2018 drought in WCE, caused widespread leaf shedding and tree mortality ( [[#Buras--2020|Buras et al., 2020]] ) with carryovers into 2019 ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), as well as bark beetle outbreaks ( [[#Netherer--2019|Netherer et al., 2019]] ) resulting in felling and cutting of more than 1 million ha of spruce forest and disrupting timber markets ( [[#Mauser--2021|Mauser, 2021]] ).

In response to 3°C GWL, forest productivity is projected to increase in NEU and altitudes, show mixed trends in WCE and decrease in SEU ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). This trend is driven by increases in productivity of pine and spruce, and decreases of beech and oak, and excludes disturbances and management options ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of fire and other natural disturbances ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ), resulting in forest productivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO 2 ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Seidl--2014|Seidl et al., 2014]] ; [[#Reyer--2017|Reyer et al., 2017]] ). In response to 1.7°C GLW, managed forest and unmanaged woodland areas are projected to decrease only minimally, while at GWL &gt;2.5°C losses are increasing for managed forest and unmanaged woodland ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ). Reducing warming from 4°C GLW to below 1.7°C GLW would reduce the Europe-wide impacts on managed forest by 34% ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

<div id="13.5.2" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="solution-space-and-adaptation-options-3"></span>
=== 13.5.2 Solution Space and Adaptation Options ===

<div id="h2-15-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

The solution space for climate-change adaption for food and timber includes production-related options (Sections 13.5.2.1–13.5.2.3) and market-based changes to consumer demand and trade ( [[#13.5.2.4|Section 13.5.2.4]] ). The assessment of effectiveness and feasibility of options in the food system is summarised in Figure 13.14.

<div id="_idContainer043" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:7c11d76ab967cee3f78846e176af3a29 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_014.png]]

'''Figure 13.14 |''' '''Effectiveness and feasibility of the main adaptation options for food systems in Europe''' (Section SM13.9, Table SM13.5)

<div id="13.5.2.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="crops-and-livestock"></span>
==== 13.5.2.1 Crops and Livestock ====

<div id="h3-15-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Farm management adaptation options to climate change include changing sowing and harvest dates, changes in cultivars and irrigation, and selecting alternative crops (Figures 13.14, 13.15; [[#Donatelli--2015|Donatelli et al., 2015]] ). Irrigation is effective at reducing yield loss from heat stress and drought, for example, for wheat and maize (Figures 13.14, 13.15), but it increases demand for water withdrawals ( [[#Siebert--2017|Siebert et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Where sufficient water and infrastructure is available, irrigation of wheat reverses yield losses across Europe at 2°C GWL to become gains, while yield losses in maize in SEU are reduced from as much as 80 to 11% ( [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Extensive droughts during the past two decades have caused many irrigated systems in SEU to cease production ( [[#Stahl--2016|Stahl et al., 2016]] ) indicating limited adaptive capacity to heat and drought ( ''medium confidence'' ). Water management for food production on land is becoming increasingly complex due to the need to satisfy other social and environmental water demands (KR3, [[#13.10|Section 13.10]] ) and is limited by costs and institutional coordination ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ). Agricultural water management adaptation practices include irrigation, reallocating water to other crops, improving use efficiency and soil water conservation practices ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ). In-season forecasts of climate impacts on yield were successfully used for European wheat during the 2018 drought ( [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ).

Changes to cultivars and sowing dates can reduce yield losses (Figure 13.15) but are insufficient to fully ameliorate losses projected &gt;3°C GWL, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops growing later in the season such as maize and wheat ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Adaptations for early maturing reduce yield loss by moving the cycle towards a cooler part of year, and also constrains the increases in irrigation water demands, but reduce the period for photosynthesis and grain filling ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holzkämper--2020|Holzkämper, 2020]] ). Crop breeding for drought and heat tolerance can improve sustainability of agricultural production under future climate ( [[#Costa--2019|Costa et al., 2019]] ), particularly in SEU where drought-tolerant varieties provide 30% higher yields than drought-sensitive varieties at 3°C GWL ( [[#Senapati--2019|Senapati et al., 2019]] ). Soil management practices, such as crop residue retention or improved crop rotations, generally undertaken as a mitigation option to increase soil carbon sequestration, are not commonly evaluated for adaptation in European agriculture ( [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ).

<div id="_idContainer045" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:d3b1790d433b39e0d9dfca347211c14c IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_015.png]]

'''Figure 13.15 |''' '''Projected yield changes with climate change for 1.''' '''5°C (RCP2.6), 1.7°C (RCP4.5) and 2°C GWL (RCP8.5).''' Altered crop management and associated water demand shows:

'''(a)''' relative yield changes under climate change and elevated CO 2 for current production systems (i.e., rain-fed and irrigated simulations weighted by current the share of rain-fed and irrigated areas);

'''(b)''' yield increase if current predominantly rain-fed areas are fully irrigated;

'''(c)''' additional yield increases for irrigated production systems if new varieties are used to avoid losses associated with faster development and earlier maturity under climate change; and

'''(d)''' water demand for irrigated systems with current varieties in currently rain-fed areas ( [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ). Relative yield changes to a period centred on 2055 relative to a baseline period centred on 1995. Box plots are Europe’s aggregate results considering current production areas (a) or current rain-fed areas (b,c), showing uncertainty across crop models and general circulation models. The maps are for the crop model median for RCP4.5 (1.7°C GWL) with GFDL-CM3.

Adaptation practices for livestock systems on European farms commonly focus on controlling cooling, shade provision and management of feeding times ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ). These options are used in indoors-reared species ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ) but are limited in mountain pastures ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ). Response options to insufficient amounts and quality of fodder include changing feeding strategies ( [[#Kaufman--2017|Kaufman et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ammer--2018|Ammer et al., 2018]] ), feed additives ( [[#Ghizzi--2018|Ghizzi et al., 2018]] ), relocating livestock linked to improved pasture management, organic farming ( [[#Rojas-Downing--2017|Rojas-Downing et al., 2017]] ; [[#EEA--2019c|EEA, 2019c]] ), importing fodder and reducing stock ( [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ). Dairy systems that maximise the use of grazed pasture are considered more environmentally sustainable but are not fully supported by policy and markets ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Hennessy--2020|Hennessy et al., 2020]] ). Genetic adaptation of crops, pasture and animals could be a long-term adaptation strategy ( [[#Anzures-Olvera--2019|Anzures-Olvera et al., 2019]] ; [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ). Control strategies for pathogens and vectors include indoor or outdoor rearing and applying new diagnostic tools or drugs ( [[#Bett--2017|Bett et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vercruysse--2018|Vercruysse et al., 2018]] ), and regulations to ensure safe trade and reduce the risk of introducing or spreading pests (European Comission, 2016).

Agroecological systems provide adaptation options that rely on ecological process (e.g., soil organic matter recycling and functional diversification) to lower inputs without impacting productivity (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; [[#Aguilera--2020|Aguilera et al., 2020]] ). High-frequency rotational grazing and mixed livestock systems are agroecological strategies to control pathogens ( [[#Aguilera--2020|Aguilera et al., 2020]] ). Agroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock (silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience to climate change (Chapter 5), but implementation in Europe needs improved training programmes and policy support ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hernández-Morcillo--2018|Hernández-Morcillo et al., 2018]] ).

Technological innovations, including ‘smart farming’ and knowledge training, can strengthen farmers’ responses to climate impacts ( [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kernecker--2019|Kernecker et al., 2019]] ), although strong belief in ‘technosalvation’ by farmers ( [[#Ricart--2019|Ricart et al., 2019]] ) can reduce the solution space and timing of adaptation options. Agricultural policy, market prices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more important role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate-change impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Juhola--2016|Juhola et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ).

Effective policy guidance is needed to increase the climate resilience of agriculture ( [[#Spinoni--2018|Spinoni et al., 2018]] ; [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ). Financial measures include simplifying procedures for obtaining subsidies, and insurance premiums and interest rates that incentivise adoption of climate-friendly agricultural methods ( [[#Garrote--2015|Garrote et al., 2015]] ; [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ; [[#Zakharov--2017|Zakharov and Sharipova, 2017]] ; [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ; [[#Wiréhn--2018|Wiréhn, 2018]] ). The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy has increasingly focused on environmental outcomes ( [[#Alliance%20Environnement--2018|Alliance Environnement, 2018]] ) but does not sufficiently provide for adaptation measures ( [[#Leventon--2017|Leventon et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pe’er--2020|Pe’er et al., 2020]] ). Limits to European farm-level adaptation include lack of resources for investment, political urgency to adapt, institutional capacity, access to adaptation knowledge and information from other countries ( [[#EEA--2019c|EEA, 2019c]] ).

<div id="13.5.2.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="aquatic-food"></span>
==== 13.5.2.2 Aquatic Food ====

<div id="h3-16-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Climate-resilient fish production in Europe is the goal of the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) rebuilding fish stocks to MSY levels, but success has been variable ( [[#Froese--2018|Froese et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stecf--2019|Stecf, 2019]] ). Adaptation is largely ignored in related EU policy frameworks such as the CFP, the MSFD and the ‘Strategic guidelines for the sustainable development of EU aquaculture’. ( [[#Pham--2021|Pham et al., 2021]] ). A major governance challenge for adaptation will be the redistribution of the fixed allocation scheme for total allowable catches ( [[#Harte--2019|Harte et al., 2019]] ; [[#Baudron--2020|Baudron et al., 2020]] ). Inflexible and non-adaptive allocation schemes can result in conflicts among European countries ( ''medium confidence'' ), as demonstrated by the case of the Northeast Atlantic mackerel ( [[#Spijkers--2017|Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017]] ).

The development of adaptation strategies for seafood production since the Paris Agreement is insufficient in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Kalikoski--2018|Kalikoski et al., 2018]] ; [[#Pham--2021|Pham et al., 2021]] ). Concrete plans for adaptation planning towards climate-ready fisheries and aquaculture are lacking in all parts of Europe (European Comission, 2018), especially accounting for the expected reduced landings of traditional target species and in preparation for a new portfolio of resource species ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ).

Recent scientific progress towards adaptation in European fisheries and aquaculture include conceptual guidance and demonstration cases on climate adaptation planning ( [[#Pham--2021|Pham et al., 2021]] ) and climate vulnerability assessments ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ). Sociopolitical scenarios for European aquatic resources have been developed and have the potential to inform adaptation planning by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors ( [[#Kreiss--2020|Kreiss et al., 2020]] ; [[#Hamon--2021|Hamon et al., 2021]] ; [[#Pinnegar--2021|Pinnegar et al., 2021]] ).

<div id="13.5.2.3" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="forests"></span>
==== 13.5.2.3 Forests ====

<div id="h3-17-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Forest management has been adopted as a frequent strategy to cope with drought, reduce fire risk, and maintain biodiverse landscapes and rural jobs ( [[#Hlásny--2014|Hlásny et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fernández-Manjarrés--2018|Fernández-Manjarrés et al., 2018]] ). Successful adaptation strategies include altering the tree species composition to enhance the resilience of European forests ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Schelhaas--2015|Schelhaas et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zubizarreta-Gerendiain--2017|Zubizarreta-Gerendiain et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pukkala--2018|Pukkala, 2018]] ). Greater diversity of tree species reduces vulnerability to pests and pathogens ( [[#Felton--2016|Felton et al., 2016]] ), and increases resistance to natural disturbances ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Jactel--2017|Jactel et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pukkala--2018|Pukkala, 2018]] ; [[#Pardos--2021|Pardos et al., 2021]] ). Depending on forest successional history ( [[#Sheil--2020|Sheil and Bongers, 2020]] ), tree composition change can increase carbon sequestration ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Liang--2016|Liang et al., 2016]] ), biodiversity and water quality ( [[#Felton--2016|Felton et al., 2016]] ). Conservation areas can also help climate-change adaptation by keeping the forest cover intact, creating favourable microclimates and protecting biodiversity ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Jantke--2016|Jantke et al., 2016]] ).

Reforestation reduces warming rates ( [[#Zellweger--2020|Zellweger et al., 2020]] ) and extremely warm days (Sonntag et al., 2016) inside forests, reducing natural disturbances and fires ( ''high confidence'' ). Active management approaches can limit the impact of fires ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ) on forest productivity, including fuel reduction management, prescribed burning, changing from conifers to deciduous, less flammable species, and recreating mixed forests ( [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ) and agroforestry ( [[#Damianidis--2020|Damianidis et al., 2020]] ).

<div id="13.5.2.4" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="demand-and-trade"></span>
==== 13.5.2.4 Demand and Trade ====

<div id="h3-18-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

An increasing globalised food system makes European nations sensitive to supply chain disturbances in other parts of the world, but also provides capacity to adapt to production shifts within Europe through changes in international trade ( [[#13.9.1|Section 13.9.1]] ) ( [[#Alexander--2018|Alexander et al., 2018]] ; [[#Challinor--2018|Challinor et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ercin--2021|Ercin et al., 2021]] ). Consumer demand for food and timber products can adapt to productivity changes and be mediated by price (e.g., in response to production changes or policies on food-related taxation), reflect changes in preferences (e.g., towards plant-based foods motivated by environmental, ethical or health concerns) or reductions in food waste ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Alexander--2019|Alexander et al., 2019]] ; [[#Willett--2019|Willett et al., 2019]] ). Although mitigation potentials of dietary changes have received increasing attention, evidence is lacking on potential for adaptation through changes in European food consumption and trade, despite these socioeconomic factors being a strong driver for change ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ; Kebede, 2021). Calls are increasing across Europe for sustainable and resilient agri-food systems acknowledging interdependencies between producers and consumers to deliver healthy, safe and nutritional foods and services ( [[#13.7|Section 13.7]] ) ( [[#Venghaus--2018|Venghaus and Hake, 2018]] ).

<div id="13.5.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="knowledge-gaps-3"></span>
=== 13.5.3 Knowledge Gaps ===

<div id="h2-16-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Aggregated projections of impacts, especially of combined hazards, are still rare despite many physiological papers on species-specific responses to warming in all food sectors ( ''high confidence'' ). This is specifically true for scenarios that consider land-use change and population growth, although Agri SSPs are currently being developed ( [[#Mitter--2019|Mitter et al., 2019]] ). Effectiveness of adaptation options is predominantly qualitatively mentioned but not assessed, and the effectiveness of combinations of measures is rarely assessed ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ewert--2015|Ewert et al., 2015]] ; [[#Holman--2018|Holman et al., 2018]] ; [[#Müller--2020|Müller et al., 2020]] ). Effective adaptation planning would be supported by better modelling and scenario development including improved coupled nature–human interactions (e.g., with more realistic representation of behaviours beyond economic rationality and ‘bottom-up’ autonomous farmer adaptations) as well as greater stakeholder involvement.

Coverage of impacts and adaptation options in Europe are biased towards the EU-28 and have gaps within the eastern part of WCE and EEU, despite dramatic changes in land use over recent decades in Russia and Ukraine ( ''high confidence'' ) which have the potential to increase production and export of agricultural products, especially wheat, meat and milk ( [[#Swinnen--2017|Swinnen et al., 2017]] ).

A bias towards modelling of cereals, specifically wheat and maize, results in gaps in knowledge for fruit and vegetables, especially for temperate regions in Europe ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ). The assessment of irrigation needs and the impact of CO 2 and O 3 tend to focus on individual species and processes hindering upscaling to multiple stressors and mixed production ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Challinor--2016|]] [[#Challinor--2016|Challinor et al., 2016]] ; [[#Webber--2016|Webber et al., 2016]] ).

There is a lack of actionable adaptation strategies for European fisheries and aquaculture. Knowledge gaps include adaptive capacities of local fishing communities to a new mix of target species and consumer acceptance of the product. Increased knowledge on the effects on freshwater fisheries and their resources is also needed.

<div id="13.6" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="cities-settlements-and-key-infrastructures"></span>