Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-2 (section)

===== 2.4.2.7.2 Changes in geographic distribution and connectivity patterns of pathogens =====

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As species’ geographic ranges and migration patterns are modified by climate change ( [[#2.4.2.1|Section 2.4.2.1]] , Table 2.2), pathogens accompany them. Diverse vectors and associated parasites, pests and pathogens of plants and animals are being recorded at higher latitudes and elevations in conjunction with regional temperature increases and precipitation changes ( ''robust evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ), although analysis of realised disease incidence often lacks the inclusion of non-climatic versus climate drivers, compromising attribution ( [[#Ollerenshaw--1959|Ollerenshaw and Rowlands, 1959]] ; [[#Purse--2005|Purse et al., 2005]] ; [[#Laaksonen--2010|Laaksonen et al., 2010]] ; [[#van%20Dijk--2010|van Dijk et al., 2010]] ; [[#Alonso--2011|Alonso et al., 2011]] ; [[#Genchi--2011|Genchi et al., 2011]] ; [[#Pinault--2011|Pinault and Hunter, 2011]] ; [[#Jaenson--2012|Jaenson et al., 2012]] ; [[#Loiseau--2012|Loiseau et al., 2012]] ; [[#Kweka--2013|Kweka et al., 2013]] ; [[#Medlock--2013|Medlock et al., 2013]] ; [[#Dhimal--2014a|Dhimal et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Dhimal--2014b|Dhimal et al., 2014b]] seasonal; [[#Siraj--2014|Siraj et al., 2014]] ; [[#Khatchikian--2015|Khatchikian et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hotez--2016a|Hotez, 2016a]] ; [[#Hotez--2016b|Hotez, 2016b]] ; [[#Bett--2017|Bett et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2017|Mallory and Boyce, 2017]] ; [[#Strutz--2017|Strutz, 2017]] ; [[#Booth--2018|Booth, 2018]] ; [[#Dumic--2018|Dumic and Severnini, 2018]] ; [[#Carignan--2019|Carignan et al., 2019]] ; [[#Gorris--2019|Gorris et al., 2019]] ; [[#Le--2019|Le et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stensgaard--2019b|Stensgaard et al., 2019b]] snails and; [[#Brugueras--2020|Brugueras et al., 2020]] ; [[#Gilbert--2021|Gilbert, 2021]] ).

At least six major VBDs affected by climate drivers have recently emerged in Nepal and are now considered endemic, with climate change implicated as a primary driver as LULCC has been assessed to have a minimal influence on these diseases ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table SM2.1). There is ''increasing evidence'' that climate warming has extended the elevational distribution of ''Anopheles'' , ''Culex'' and ''Aedes'' mosquito vectors above 2000 m in Nepal ( ''limited evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#Dahal--2008|Dahal, 2008]] ; [[#Dhimal--2014a|Dhimal et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Dhimal--2014b|Dhimal et al., 2014b]] ; [[#Dhimal--2015|Dhimal et al., 2015]] ), with similar trends being recorded in neighbouring Himalayan regions ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#Phuyal--2020|Phuyal et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dhimal--2021|Dhimal et al., 2021]] ). Host animals in novel areas may be immunologically naive, and therefore more vulnerable to severe illness ( [[#Bradley--2005|Bradley et al., 2005]] ; [[#Hall--2016|Hall et al., 2016]] ).

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