Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-4 (section)

=== 4.3.5 Overarching Adaptation Options Supporting Adaptation Transitions ===

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This section assesses overarching adaptation options –specific solutions from which actors can choose and make decisions to reduce climate vulnerability and build resilience. We examine their feasibility in the context of transitions of energy, land and ecosystem, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems here, and further in Section 4.5. These options can contribute to creating an enabling environment for adaptation (see Table 4.4 and Section 4.4).

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==== 4.3.5.1 Disaster risk management (DRM) ====

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DRM is a process for designing, implementing and evaluating strategies, policies and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, and promoting improvement in disaster preparedness, response and recovery (IPCC, 2012) <sup>[[#fn:r451|451]]</sup> . There is increased demand to integrate DRM and adaptation (Howes et al., 2015; Kelman et al., 2015; Serrao-Neumann et al., 2015; Archer, 2016; Rose, 2016; van der Keur et al., 2016; Kelman, 2017; Wallace, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r452|452]]</sup> to reduce vulnerability, but institutional, technical and financial capacity challenges in frontline agencies constitute constraints ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) (Eakin et al., 2015; Kita, 2017; Wallace, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r453|453]]</sup> .

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==== 4.3.5.2 Risk sharing and spreading ====

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Risks associated with 1.5ºC warming (Chapter 3, Section 3.4) may increase the demand for options that share and spread financial burdens. Formal, market-based (re)insurance spreads risk and provides a financial buffer against the impacts of climate hazards (Linnerooth-Bayer and Hochrainer-Stigler, 2015; Wolfrom and Yokoi-Arai, 2015; O’Hare et al., 2016; Glaas et al., 2017; Patel et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r454|454]]</sup> . As an alternative to traditional indemnity-based insurance, index-based micro-crop and livestock insurance programmes have been rolled out in regions with less developed insurance markets (Akter et al., 2016, 2017; Jensen and Barrett, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r455|455]]</sup> . There is ''medium evidence'' and ''medium agreement'' on the feasibility of insurance for adaptation, with financial, social, and institutional barriers to implementation and uptake, especially in low-income nations (García Romero and Molina, 2015; Joyette et al., 2015; Lashley and Warner, 2015; Jin et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r456|456]]</sup> . Social protection programmes include cash and in-kind transfers to protect poor and vulnerable households from the impact of economic shocks, natural disasters and other crises (World Bank, 2017b) <sup>[[#fn:r457|457]]</sup> , and can build generic adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability when combined with a comprehensive climate risk management approach ( ''medium evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) (Devereux, 2016; Lemos et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r458|458]]</sup> .

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==== 4.3.5.3 Education and learning ====

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Educational adaptation options motivate adaptation through building awareness (Butler et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r459|459]]</sup> , leveraging multiple knowledge systems (Pearce et al., 2015; Janif et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r460|460]]</sup> , developing participatory action research and social learning processes (Butler and Adamowski, 2015; Ensor and Harvey, 2015; Butler et al., 2016; Thi Hong Phuong et al., 2017; Ford et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r461|461]]</sup> , strengthening extension services, and building mechanisms for learning and knowledge sharing through community-based platforms, international conferences and knowledge networks (Vinke-de Kruijf and Pahl-Wostl, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r462|462]]</sup> ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ).

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==== 4.3.5.4 Population health and health system adaptation options ====

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Climate change will exacerbate existing health challenges (Chapter 3, Section 3.4.7). Options for enhancing current health services include providing access to safe water and improved sanitation, enhancing access to essential services such as vaccination, and developing or strengthening integrated surveillance systems (WHO, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r463|463]]</sup> . Combining these with iterative management can facilitate effective adaptation ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ).

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==== 4.3.5.5 Indigenous knowledge ====

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There is ''medium evidence'' and ''high agreement'' that indigenous knowledge is critical for adaptation, underpinning adaptive capacity through the diversity of indigenous agro-ecological and forest management systems, collective social memory, repository of accumulated experience and social networks (Hiwasaki et al., 2015; Pearce et al., 2015; Mapfumo et al., 2016; Sherman et al., 2016; Ingty, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r464|464]]</sup> (Box 4.3). Indigenous knowledge is threatened by acculturation, dispossession of land rights and land grabbing, rapid environmental changes, colonization and social change, resulting in increasing vulnerability to climate change – which climate policy can exacerbate if based on limited understanding of indigenous worldviews (Thornton and Manasfi, 2010; Ford, 2012; Nakashima et al., 2012; McNamara and Prasad, 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r465|465]]</sup> . Many scholars argue that recognition of indigenous rights, governance systems and laws is central to adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development (Magni, 2017; Thornton and Comberti, 2017; Pearce, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r466|466]]</sup> .

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==== 4.3.5.6 Human migration ====

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Human migration, whether planned, forced or voluntary, is increasingly gaining attention as a response, particularly where climatic risks are becoming severe (Chapter 3, Section 3.4.10.2). There is ''medium'' ''evidence'' and ''low agreement'' as to whether migration is adaptive, in relation to cost effectiveness concerns (Grecequet et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r467|467]]</sup> and scalability (Brzoska and Fröhlich, 2016; Gemenne and Blocher, 2017; Grecequet et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r468|468]]</sup> . Migrating can have mixed outcomes on reducing socio-economic vulnerability (Birk and Rasmussen, 2014; Kothari, 2014; Adger et al., 2015; Betzold, 2015; Kelman, 2015; Grecequet et al., 2017; Melde et al., 2017; World Bank, 2017a; Kumari Rigaud et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r469|469]]</sup> and its feasibility is constrained by low political and legal acceptability and inadequate institutional capacity (Betzold, 2015; Methmann and Oels, 2015; Brzoska and Fröhlich, 2016; Gemenne and Blocher, 2017; Grecequet et al., 2017; Yamamoto et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r470|470]]</sup> .

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==== 4.3.5.7 Climate services ====

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There is ''medium evidence'' and ''high agreement'' that climate services can play a critical role in aiding adaptation decision-making (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Wood et al., 2014; Lourenço et al., 2016; Trenberth et al., 2016; Singh et al., 2017; Vaughan et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r471|471]]</sup> . The higher uptake of short-term climate information such as weather advisories and daily forecasts contrast with lesser use of longer-term information such as seasonal forecasts and multi-decadal projections (Singh et al., 2017; Vaughan et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r472|472]]</sup> . Climate service interventions have met challenges with scaling up due to low capacity, inadequate institutions, and difficulties in maintaining systems beyond pilot project stage (Sivakumar et al., 2014; Tall et al., 2014; Gebru et al., 2015; Singh et al., 2016b) <sup>[[#fn:r473|473]]</sup> , and technical, institutional, design, financial and capacity barriers to the application of climate information for better decision-making remain (Briley et al., 2015; WMO, 2015; L. Jones et al., 2016; Lourenço et al., 2016; Snow et al., 2016; Harjanne, 2017; Singh et al., 2017; C.J. White et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r474|474]]</sup> .

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'''Table 4.4'''

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'''Assessment of overarching adaptation options in relation to enabling conditions. For more details, see Supplementary Material 4.SM.2.'''

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{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Option
! Enabling Conditions
! Examples
|-
| Disaster risk management (DRM)
| Governance and institutional capacity: supports post-disaster recovery and reconstruction (Kelman et al., 2015; Kull et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r475|475]]</sup> .
| Early warning systems (Anacona et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r476|476]]</sup> , and monitoring of dangerous lakes and surrounding slopes (including using remote sensing) offer DRM opportunities<br />
(Emmer et al., 2016; Milner et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r477|477]]</sup> .
|-
| Risk sharing and spreading: insurance
| Institutional capacity and finance: buffers climate risk (Wolfrom and Yokoi-Arai, 2015; O’Hare et al., 2016; Glaas et al., 2017; Jenkins et al., 2017; Patel et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r478|478]]</sup> .
| In 2007, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility was formed to pool risk from tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and excess rainfalls (Murphy et al., 2012; CCRIF, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r479|479]]</sup> .
|-
| Social safety nets
| Institutional capacity and finance: builds generic adaptive capacity and reduces social vulnerability (Weldegebriel and Prowse, 2013; Eakin et al., 2014; Lemos et al., 2016; Schwan and Yu, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r480|480]]</sup> .
| In sub-Saharan Africa, cash transfer programmes targeting poor communities have proven successful in smoothing household welfare and food security during droughts, strengthening community ties, and reducing debt levels (del Ninno et al., 2016; Asfaw et al., 2017; Asfaw and Davis, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r481|481]]</sup> .
|-
| Education and learning
| Behavioural change and institutional capacity: social learning strengthens adaptation and affects longer-term change (Clemens et al., 2015; Ensor and Harvey, 2015; Henly-Shepard et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r482|482]]</sup> .
| Participatory scenario planning is a process by which multiple stakeholders work together<br />
to envision future scenarios under a range of climatic conditions (Oteros-Rozas et al.,<br />
2015; Butler et al., 2016; Flynn et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r483|483]]</sup> .
|-
| Population health and health system
| Institutional capacity: 1.5°C warming will primarily exacerbate existing health challenges (K.R. Smith et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r484|484]]</sup> , which can be targeted by enhancing health services.
| Heatwave early warning and response systems coordinate the implementation of multiple measures in response to predicted extreme temperatures (e.g., public announcements, opening public cooling shelters, distributing information on heat stress symptoms) (Knowlton et al., 2014; Takahashi et al., 2015; Nitschke et al., 2016, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r485|485]]</sup> .
|-
| Indigenous knowledge
| Institutional capacity and behavioural change: knowledge of environmental conditions helps communities detect and monitor change (Johnson et al., 2015; Mistry and Berardi, 2016; Williams et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r486|486]]</sup> .
| Options such as integration of indigenous knowledge into resource management systems and school curricula, are identified as potential adaptations (Cunsolo Willox et al., 2013; McNamara and Prasad, 2014; MacDonald et al., 2015; Pearce et al., 2015; Chambers et al., 2017; Inamara and Thomas, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r487|487]]</sup> .
|-
| Human migration
| Governance: revising and adopting migration issues in national disaster risk management policies, National Adaptation Plans and NDCs (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; Yamamoto et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r488|488]]</sup> .
| In dryland India, populations in rural regions already experiencing 1.5°C warming are migrating to cities (Gajjar et al., 2018)  <sup>[[#fn:r489|489]]</sup> but are inadequately covered by existing policies (Bhagat, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r490|490]]</sup> .
|-
| Climate services
| Technological innovation: rapid technical development (due to increased financial inputs and growing demand) is improving quality of climate information provided (Rogers and Tsirkunov, 2010; Clements et al., 2013; Perrels et al., 2013; Gasc et al., 2014; WMO, 2015; Roudier et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r491|491]]</sup> .
| Climate services are seeing wide application in sectors such as agriculture, health, disaster management and insurance (Lourenço et al., 2016; Vaughan et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r492|492]]</sup> , with implications for adaptation decision-making (Singh et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r493|493]]</sup> .
|}
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