Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

== Box 5.3 Republic of Vanuatu – National Planning for Development and Climate Resilience ==

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The Republic of Vanuatu is leading Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to develop a nationally coordinated plan for climate-resilient development in the context of high exposure to hazard risk (MoCC, 2016; UNU-EHS, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r373|373]]</sup> . The majority of the population depends on subsistence, rain-fed agriculture and coastal fisheries for food security (Sovacool et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r374|374]]</sup> . Sea level rise, increased prolonged drought, water shortages, intense storms, cyclone events and degraded coral reef environments threaten human security in a 1.5°C warmer world (see Chapter 3, Box 3.5) (SPC, 2015; Aipira et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r375|375]]</sup> . Given Vanuatu’s long history of climate hazards and disasters, local adaptive capacity is relatively high, despite barriers to the use of local knowledge and technology, and low rates of literacy and women’s participation (McNamara and Prasad, 2014; Aipira et al., 2017; Granderson, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r376|376]]</sup> . However, the adaptive capacity of Vanuatu and other SIDS is increasingly constrained due to more frequent severe weather events (see Chapter 3, Box 3.5, Chapter 4, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 4) (Gero et al., 2013; Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; SPC, 2015; Sovacool et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r377|377]]</sup> .

Vanuatu has developed a national sustainable development plan for 2016–2030: the People’s Plan (Republic of Vanuatu, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r378|378]]</sup> . This coordinated, inclusive plan of action on economy, environment and society aims to strengthen adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change and disasters. It emphasizes rights of all Ni-Vanuatu, including women, youth, the elderly and vulnerable groups (Nalau et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r379|379]]</sup> . Vanuatu has also developed a Coastal Adaptation Plan (Republic of Vanuatu, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r380|380]]</sup> , an integrated Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policy (2016–2030) (SPC, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r381|381]]</sup> and the first South Pacific National Advisory Board on Climate Change &amp; Disaster Risk Reduction (SPC, 2015; UNDP, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r382|382]]</sup> .

Vanuatu aims to integrate planning at multiple scales, and increase climate resilience by supporting local coping capacities and iterative processes of planning for sustainable development and integrated risk assessment (Aipira et al., 2017; Eriksson et al., 2017; Granderson, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r383|383]]</sup> . Climate-resilient development is also supported by non-state partnerships, for example, the ‘Yumi stap redi long climate change’–the Vanuatu non-governmental organization Climate Change Adaptation Program (Maclellan, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r384|384]]</sup> . This programme focuses on equitable governance, with particular attention to supporting women’s voices in decision-making through allied programmes addressing domestic violence, and rights-based education to reduce social marginalization; alongside institutional reforms for greater transparency, accountability and community participation in decision-making (Davies, 2015; Maclellan, 2015; Sterrett, 2015; Ensor, 2016; UN Women, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r385|385]]</sup> .

Power imbalances embedded in the political economy of development (Nunn et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r386|386]]</sup> , gender discrimination (Aipira et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r387|387]]</sup> and the priorities of climate finance (Cabezon et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r388|388]]</sup> may marginalize the priorities of local communities and influence how local risks are understood, prioritised and managed (Kuruppu and Willie, 2015; Baldacchino, 2017; Sovacool et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r389|389]]</sup> . However, the experience of the low death toll after Cyclone Pam suggests effective use of local knowledge in planning and early warning may support resilience at least in the absence of storm surge flooding (Handmer and Iveson, 2017; Nalau et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r390|390]]</sup> . Nevertheless, the very severe infrastructure damage of Cyclone Pam 2015 highlights the limits of individual Pacific SIDS efforts and the need for global and regional responses to a 1.5°C warmer world (see Chapter 3, Box 3.5, Chapter 4, Box 4.3) (Dilling et al., 2015; Ensor, 2016; Shultz et al., 2016; Rey et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r391|391]]</sup> .

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Communities, towns and cities also contribute to low-carbon pathways, sustainable development and fair and equitable climate resilience, often focused on processes of power, learning and contestation as entry points to more localised CRDPs ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) (Cross-Chapter Box 13 in this chapter, Box 5.2). In the Scottish Borders Climate Resilient Communities Project (United Kingdom), local flood management is linked with national policies to foster cross-scalar and inclusive governance, with attention to systemic disadvantages, shocks and stressors, capacity building, learning for change and climate narratives to inspire hope and action, all of which are essential for community resilience in a 1.5°C warmer world (Fazey et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r392|392]]</sup> . Narratives and storytelling are vital for realizing place-based 1.5°C futures as they create space for agency, deliberation, co-constructing meaning, imagination and desirable and dignified pathways (Veland et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r393|393]]</sup> . Engagement with possible futures, identity and self-reliance is also documented for Alaska, where warming has already exceeded 1.5°C and indigenous communities invest in renewable energy, greenhouses for food security and new fishing practices to overcome loss of sea ice, flooding and erosion (Chapin et al., 2016; Fazey et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r394|394]]</sup> . The Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network facilitates shared learning dialogues, risk-to-resilience workshops, and iterative, consultative planning in flood-prone cities in India; vulnerable communities, municipal governmental agents, entrepreneurs and technical experts negotiate different visions, trade-offs and local politics to identify desirable pathways (Harris et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r395|395]]</sup> .

Transforming our societies and systems to limit global warming to 1.5 ''°'' C and ensuring equity and well-being for human populations and ecosystems in a 1.5 ''°'' C warmer world would require ambitious and well-integrated adaptation–mitigation–development pathways that deviate fundamentally from high-carbon, business-as-usual futures (Okereke and Coventry, 2016; Arts, 2017; Gupta and Arts, 2017; Sealey-Huggins, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r396|396]]</sup> . Identifying and negotiating socially acceptable, inclusive and equitable pathways towards climate-resilient futures is a challenging, yet important, endeavour, fraught with complex moral, practical and political difficulties and inevitable trade-offs ( ''very high confidence'' ). The ultimate questions are: what futures do we want (Bai et al., 2016; Tàbara et al., 2017; Klinsky and Winkler, 2018; O’Brien, 2018; Veland et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r397|397]]</sup> , whose resilience matters, for what, where, when and why (Meerow and Newell, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r398|398]]</sup> , and ‘whose vision … is being pursued and along which pathways’ (Gillard et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r399|399]]</sup> .

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