Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.3.4.3 Integrated response options based on risk management ====

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In this section, the impacts on land degradation of integrated response options based on risk management are assessed.

Urban expansion has been identified as a major culprit in soil degradation in some countries; for example, urban expansion in China has now affected 0.2 Mkm2, or almost one-sixth of the cultivated land

total, causing an annual grain yield loss of up to 10 Mt, or around 5–6% of cropland production. Cropland production losses of 8–10% by 2030 are expected under model scenarios of urban expansion (Bren d’Amour et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r589|589]]</sup> ). Pollution from urban development has included water and soil pollution from industry, and wastes and sewage, as well as acid deposition from increasing energy use in cities (Chen 2007) <sup>[[#fn:r590|590]]</sup> , all resulting in major losses to Nature’s Contributions to People from urban conversion (Song and Deng 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r591|591]]</sup> ). Soil sealing from urban expansion is a major loss of soil productivity across many areas. The World Bank has estimated that new city dwellers in developing countries will require 160–500 m2 per capita, converted from non-urban to urban land (Barbero-Sierra et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r592|592]]</sup> ; Angel et al. 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r593|593]]</sup> ).

Degradation can be a driver leading to livelihood diversification (Batterbury 2001 <sup>[[#fn:r594|594]]</sup> ; Lestrelin and Giordano 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r595|595]]</sup> ). Diversification has the potential to deliver some reversal of land degradation, if diversification involves adding non-traditional crops or trees that may reduce the need for tillage (Antwi-Agyei et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r596|596]]</sup> ). China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program has had livelihood diversification benefits and is said to have prevented degradation of 93,000 km2 of land (Liu et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r597|597]]</sup> ). However, Warren (2002) <sup>[[#fn:r598|598]]</sup> provides conflicting evidence that more diverse-income households had increased degradation on their lands in Niger. Palacios et al. (2013) associate landscape fragmentation with increased livelihood diversification in Mexico.

Use of local seeds may play a role in addressing land degradation due to the likelihood of local seeds being less dependent on inputs such as chemical fertilisers or mechanical tillage; for example, in India, local legumes are retained in seed networks while commercial crops like sorghum and rice dominate food markets (Reisman 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r599|599]]</sup> ). However, there are no global figures.

Disaster Risk Management systems can have some positive impacts on prevention and reversal of land degradation, such as the Global Drought Early Warning System (Pozzi et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r600|600]]</sup> ) (Section 6.3.3.3).

Risk-sharing instruments could have benefits for reduced degradation, but there are no global estimates. Commercial crop insurance is likely to deliver no co-benefits for prevention and reversal of degradation. One study found a 1% increase in farm receipts generated from subsidised farm programmes (including crop insurance and others) increased soil erosion by 0.3 t ha–1 (Goodwin and Smith 2003 <sup>[[#fn:r601|601]]</sup> ). Wright and Wimberly (2013) <sup>[[#fn:r602|602]]</sup> found a 5310 km2 decline in grasslands in the Upper Midwest of the USA during 2006–2010, due to crop conversion driven by higher prices and access to insurance.

Table 6.44 summarises the impact on land degradation of risk management options, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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