Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.6.2 Exposure ====

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Higher temperatures and SLR, changes in rainfall patterns, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events could generate risks to the energy and infrastructure sectors and to the mining and metals industry. In the River Plate basin, urban floods have become more frequent, causing infrastructure damage and sometimes substantial mortality ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Barros--2015|Barros et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zambrano--2017|Zambrano et al., 2017]] ; [[#Nagy--2019|Nagy et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mettler-Grove--2020|Mettler-Grove, 2020]] ; [[#Morales-Yokobori--2021|Morales-Yokobori, 2021]] ; [[#Oyedotun--2021|Oyedotun and Ally, 2021]] ). A large increase in landslides and flash floods is also predicted for the Brazilian portion of SES, where they are responsible for the majority of deaths related to disasters in the country ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Debortoli--2017|Debortoli et al., 2017]] ; [[#Haque--2019|Haque et al., 2019]] ; [[#Saito--2019|Saito et al., 2019]] ; [[#Marengo--2020d|Marengo et al., 2020d]] ; [[#da%20Fonseca%20Aguiar--2021|da Fonseca Aguiar and Cataldi, 2021]] ). Due to uncontrolled urban growth, 21.5 million people living in the large Brazilian cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE [2020]]) are expected to be exposed to water scarcity, despite widespread water availability in the region ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) ( [[#Marengo--2017|Marengo et al., 2017]] , [[#Marengo--2020b|Marengo et al., 2020b]] ; Lima and Magaña Rueda, 2018).

The expected increase in temperature will also expose the populations in large cities to extreme heat. Urban heat islands are already a reality in large cities in the region, such as Buenos Aires ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Wong--2013|Wong et al., 2013]] ; [[#Sarricolea--2019|Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019]] ; [[#Wu--2019|Wu et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mettler-Grove--2020|Mettler-Grove, 2020]] ), Rio de Janeiro ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ceccherini--2016|Ceccherini et al., 2016]] ; [[#Neiva--2017|Neiva et al., 2017]] ; [[#Geirinhas--2018|Geirinhas et al., 2018]] ; Peres et al., 2018; [[#Sarricolea--2019|Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019]] ; [[#Wu--2019|Wu et al., 2019]] ; [[#de%20Farias--2021|de Farias et al., 2021]] ) and São Paulo ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Mishra--2015|Mishra et al., 2015]] ; [[#Barros--2016|Barros and Lombardo, 2016]] ; [[#Ceccherini--2016|Ceccherini et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vemado--2016|Vemado and Pereira Filho, 2016]] ; [[#de%20Azevedo--2018|de Azevedo et al., 2018]] ; Lima and Magaña Rueda, 2018; [[#Ferreira--2019|Ferreira and Duarte, 2019]] ; [[#Lapola--2019a|Lapola et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Sarricolea--2019|Sarricolea and Meseguer-Ruiz, 2019]] ; [[#Wu--2019|Wu et al., 2019]] ), with reported impact on human health in the latter ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) (e.g., Araujo et al. 2015; Son et al. 2016; Diniz et al. 2020). These cities alone represent 22 million people exposed to increased heat (estimate for 2019 fromIBGE [2020]] and from INDEC [2010]).

The sub-region presents a high frequency of occurrence of intense severe convection events ( [[#12.3.6.1|Section 12.3.6.1]] ). Because of this situation, strong winds from the south or southeast and high water levels affect the whole Argentine coast, as well as the River Plate shores, Uruguay and southern Brazil ( [[#Isla--2009|Isla and Schnack, 2009]] ). The coast of the River Plate is subject to flooding when there are strong winds from the southeast (sudestadas). As sea level rises as a result of global climate change, storm surge floods will become more frequent in this densely populated area, particularly in low-lying areas ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 12.8) ( [[#D’Onofrio--2008|D’Onofrio et al., 2008]] ; [[#Nagy--2014a|Nagy et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Santamaria-Aguilar--2017|Santamaria-Aguilar et al., 2017]] ; [[#Nagy--2019|Nagy et al., 2019]] impacts and adaptation in Central and South America coastal areas; [[#Cerón--2021|Cerón et al., 2021]] ).

The region’s natural systems are also exposed to climate change. The SES region is home to two important biodiversity hotspots, with high levels of species endemism: the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest, where about 72% of Brazil’s threatened species can be found ( [[#PBMC--2014|PBMC, 2014]] ).

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