Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.5.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks ===

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==== 13.5.1.1 Crop Production ====

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Agriculture is the primary user of land in Europe. In 2013, Europe provided 28% of cereals, 59% of sugar beet and 60% of wine produced globally, as well as being part of a globalised food system with a third of the commodities produced and consumed in Europe traded internationally ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro-climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Warming and precipitation changes since 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and barley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Ray--2015|Ray et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2017|Ceglar et al., 2017]] ). Heat stress has increased in SEU in spring, in summer throughout Central and Southern Europe, and recently expanded into the southern boreal zone ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Drought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and heat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause economic losses in forest productivity ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), annual and permanent crops, and livestock farming ( [[#Stahl--2016|Stahl et al., 2016]] ), including losses in wheat production in the EU ( [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ) and EEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ivanov--2016|Ivanov et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loboda--2017|Loboda et al., 2017]] ), with the severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over the past 50 years ( [[#Brás--2021|Brás et al., 2021]] ). Meteorological extremes due to compound effects of cold winters, excessive autumn and spring precipitation, and summer drought caused production losses (up to 30% relative to trend expectations) in 2012, 2016 and 2018 ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ; [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zscheischler--2018|Zscheischler et al., 2018]] ; [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ) that were exceptional compared with recent decades ( [[#Webber--2020|Webber et al., 2020]] ). Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of field-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes and cucumbers ( [[#Potopová--2017|Potopová et al., 2017]] ) and earlier flowering of olive trees ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Garcia-Mozo--2015|Garcia-Mozo et al., 2015]] ). Delayed harvest, due to both wet conditions and earlier harvests in Central Europe in response to warming, has impacted wine quality ( [[#Cook--2016|Cook and Wolkovich, 2016]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2016|van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016]] ; [[#Di%20Lena--2019|Di Lena et al., 2019]] ).

Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is increasing since AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Donatelli--2015|Donatelli et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ). At 1.5°C GWL, compound events which led to recent large wheat losses are projected to become 12% more frequent ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ). Growing regions will shift northward or expand for melons ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 under 1.5°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hannah--2013|Hannah et al., 2013]] ; [[#Litskas--2019|Litskas et al., 2019]] ), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese cabbage and French beans ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ) ( ''medium confidence'' ). In response to 2°C GWL, agro-climatic zones in Europe are expected to move northward 25–135 km per decade, fastest in EEU ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Negative impacts of warming and drought are counterbalanced by CO 2 fertilisation for crops such as winter wheat ( ''medium confidence, medium agreement'' ), resulting in some regional yield increases with climate change ( [[#Zhao--2017|Zhao et al., 2017]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ).

Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4°C GWL, with lower losses or gains in the north ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.5; [[#Trnka--2014|Trnka et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2016|Webber et al., 2016]] ; [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ). The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ) with yield losses across Europe of 10–25% at 1.5°C–2°C GWL and 50–100% at 4°C GWL ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ).

Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Siebert--2017|Siebert et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Irrigation can reduces projected heat and drought stress, for example, for wheat and maize ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ), but use is limited by water availability (KR3, [[#13.10.2|Section 13.10.2]] ). The advantages of a longer growing season in NEU and EEU are outbalanced by the increased risk of early spring and summer heatwaves ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ).

Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association of pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Caffarra--2012|Caffarra et al., 2012]] ; [[#Pushnya--2015|Pushnya and Shirinyan, 2015]] ; [[#Latchininsky--2017|Latchininsky, 2017]] ) with high risk for contamination of cereals ( [[#Moretti--2019|Moretti et al., 2019]] ). Regionally predicted reduction in rainfall ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) can lead to carryover of herbicides ( [[#Karkanis--2018|Karkanis et al., 2018]] ).

Net yield losses will reduce economic output from agriculture in the EU, reaching a reduction of 7% for the EU and the UK combined, and 10% in SEU at 4°C GWL ( [[#Naumann--2021|Naumann et al., 2021]] ). Farmland values are projected to decrease by 5–9% per degree of warming in SEU ( [[#Van%20Passel--2017|Van Passel et al., 2017]] ). Increased heat and drought stress, and reduced irrigation water availability, will decrease profitability and cause abandonment of farmland in SEU ( ''limited evidence, low confidence'' ) ( [[#Holman--2017|Holman et al., 2017]] ).

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==== 13.5.1.2 Livestock Production ====

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Heat and humidity affect livestock, such as dairy cows and goats, directly exposed in open barns and outdoors ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bernabucci--2014|Bernabucci et al., 2014]] ; [[#Silanikove--2015|Silanikove and Koluman, 2015]] ), and cold-adapted husbandry ( ''high confidence'' ) (see Box 13.2; [[#13.8.3|Section 13.8.3]] ). Heat impacts animal health ( [[#Sanker--2013|Sanker et al., 2013]] ; [[#Lambertz--2014|Lambertz et al., 2014]] ), nutrition, behaviour and welfare ( [[#Heinicke--2019|Heinicke et al., 2019]] ), performance and product quality ( [[#Gauly--2020|Gauly and Ammer, 2020]] ). Climate change also impacts grassland production, fodder composition and quality, particularly in SEU ( [[#Dumont--2015|Dumont et al., 2015]] ) and EEU ( [[#Bezuglova--2020|Bezuglova et al., 2020]] ), as well as alters the prevalence, distribution and load of pathogens and their vectors ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.4.2.7.3|Section 2.4.2.7.3]] ; [[#Morgan--2013|Morgan et al., 2013]] ; [[#Charlier--2016|Charlier et al., 2016]] ). Projected impacts on poultry and pigs are low due to temperature control in large parts of Europe, but are greater in SEU where open systems prevail (Chapter 5).

Warming increases the pasture growing season and farming period in NEU and at higher altitudes ( [[#Fuhrer--2014|Fuhrer et al., 2014]] ), while longer drought periods and thunderstorms can influence abandonment of remote Alpine pastures, reducing cultural and landscape ecosystem services and losing traditional farming practices ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#13.8.3|Section 13.8.3]] ; [[#Herzog--2018|Herzog and Seidl, 2018]] ). At 2–4°C GWL grassland biomass production for forage-fed animals will increase in NEU and the northern Alps, while forage production will decrease in SEU and the southern Alps due to heat and water scarcity ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ; [[#Jäger--2020|Jäger et al., 2020]] ), causing regional reductions of cow milk production in WCE and SEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Silanikove--2015|Silanikove and Koluman, 2015]] ).

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==== 13.5.1.3 Aquatic Food Production ====

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Seafood production in Europe provides jobs for &gt;250,000 people, predominantly in SEU ( [[#Carvalho--2017|Carvalho et al., 2017]] ). Marine fisheries contribute 80% to European aquatic food production, while marine aquaculture provides 18% and freshwater production 3% ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). The Russian Federation provides 25% of seafood production in Europe ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Climate change has impacted European marine food production ( ''high confidence'' ); however, extraction is still the major impact on commercially important fish stocks in Europe ( [[#Mullon--2016|Mullon et al., 2016]] ), with 69% of stocks overfished and 51% outside safe biological limits ( [[#Froese--2018|Froese et al., 2018]] ). The North Sea, the Iberian Coastal Sea and the Celtic Sea–Biscay Shelf are globally among the areas most negatively affected by warming with losses of 15–35% in maximum sustainable yields (MSY) during recent decades ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ). Warming has caused ongoing northward movement and range expansion of Northeast Atlantic fish stocks ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; [[#Baudron--2020|Baudron et al., 2020]] ). In the North Sea, cuttlefish ( [[#van%20der%20Kooij--2016|van der Kooij et al., 2016]] ; [[#Oesterwind--2020|Oesterwind et al., 2020]] ) and tuna ( [[#Bennema--2018|Bennema, 2018]] ; [[#Faillettaz--2019|Faillettaz et al., 2019]] ) have become new target species ( ''medium confidence'' ). In SEU, warm-water species increasingly dominate fisheries landings ( [[#Fortibuoni--2015|Fortibuoni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Teixeira--2016|Teixeira et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vasilakopoulos--2017|Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017]] ).

European countries are assessed to be globally among the least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries-related food security risks ( ''high confidence'' ) due to low levels of exposure to climate hazards, low dependency of economies on fisheries and a high adaptive capacity ( [[#Barange--2014|Barange et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ). European freshwater production is suggested to be less vulnerable than marine sectors and marine production vulnerability increases with latitude ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). In the aquaculture sector, Norway is highly vulnerable due to the high sensitivity of salmon farming to warming and high per-capita production ( [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ). In the fisheries sector, vulnerability for fishing communities is highest in SEU and the UK (Figure 13.9A; [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ), while for aquaculture sectors, it is highest in SEU and some NEU and WCE countries (Figure 13.9B, 2020).

Future vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities are projected to strongly vary regionally and between major fisheries and aquaculture species (Figure 13.13 c,d; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ). Assuming MSY management, projections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks in European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between 1.5°C and 4.0°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.13; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ). In response to 4°C GWL, higher trophic-level biomass is projected to increase in the SEUS mainly due to increases in small pelagic and thermophilic, often exotic, species ( [[#Moullec--2019|Moullec et al., 2019]] ).

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[[File:74a6b365e399cdab41088836030882a5 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_013.png]]

'''Figure 13.13 |''' '''Future vulnerability and risks for aquatic food production:'''

'''(a)''' vulnerability for fisheries in 105 coastal regions across 26 countries based on biological traits and physiological metrics of 556 resource populations ( [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] );

'''(b)''' vulnerability of major aquaculture species in European countries on physiological attributes, farming methods and economic output ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] );

'''(c,d)''' differences (%) between projected changes for 1.5°C and 4°C GWL ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ), with '''(c)''' changes in abundance of major fish species by region, and '''(d)''' changes in productivity of major aquaculture species by country

Ocean acidification ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk for marine food production in Europe under 4°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ), affecting recruitment of important European fish stocks, such as those of cod in the Western Baltic and Barents Sea, by 8 and 24%, respectively (Swat et al., 2018b; [[#Stiasny--2018|Stiasny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Voss--2019|Voss et al., 2019]] ). Acidification is also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and aquaculture in Europe with 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Fernandes--2017|Fernandes et al., 2017]] ; [[#Narita--2017|Narita and Rehdanz, 2017]] ; [[#Mangi--2018|Mangi et al., 2018]] ).

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==== 13.5.1.4 Forestry and Forest Products ====

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Climate change is altering the structure and function of European forests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , as well as through interaction with pests and fire ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ; [[#Moreno--2018|Moreno et al., 2018]] ; [[#Morin--2018|Morin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ; [[#Orlova-Bienkowskaja--2020|Orlova-Bienkowskaja et al., 2020]] ). Species-specific responses of trees to drier summers ( [[#Vitali--2018|Vitali et al., 2018]] ) shape regional variability in European forest productivity in response to water and nutrient availability, heatwave and evaporative demand ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kellomäki--2018|Kellomäki et al., 2018]] ). While warming and extended growing seasons have positive impacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU ( [[#Pretzsch--2014|Pretzsch et al., 2014]] ; [[#Matskovsky--2020|Matskovsky et al., 2020]] ), EEU ( [[#Tei--2017|Tei et al., 2017]] ) and higher altitude ( [[#Sedmáková--2019|Sedmáková et al., 2019]] ), drought stress across Europe has been increasing ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Primicia--2015|Primicia et al., 2015]] ; [[#Marqués--2018|Marqués et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ruiz-Pérez--2020|Ruiz-Pérez and Vico, 2020]] ). Combined with land use, climate change has increased large-scale forest mortality since the 1980s ( [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ). Extreme events, such as the 2018 drought in WCE, caused widespread leaf shedding and tree mortality ( [[#Buras--2020|Buras et al., 2020]] ) with carryovers into 2019 ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), as well as bark beetle outbreaks ( [[#Netherer--2019|Netherer et al., 2019]] ) resulting in felling and cutting of more than 1 million ha of spruce forest and disrupting timber markets ( [[#Mauser--2021|Mauser, 2021]] ).

In response to 3°C GWL, forest productivity is projected to increase in NEU and altitudes, show mixed trends in WCE and decrease in SEU ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). This trend is driven by increases in productivity of pine and spruce, and decreases of beech and oak, and excludes disturbances and management options ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of fire and other natural disturbances ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ), resulting in forest productivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO 2 ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Seidl--2014|Seidl et al., 2014]] ; [[#Reyer--2017|Reyer et al., 2017]] ). In response to 1.7°C GLW, managed forest and unmanaged woodland areas are projected to decrease only minimally, while at GWL &gt;2.5°C losses are increasing for managed forest and unmanaged woodland ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ). Reducing warming from 4°C GLW to below 1.7°C GLW would reduce the Europe-wide impacts on managed forest by 34% ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

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