Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.2.3.3 Cancer ====

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''Climate change is'' likely ''to increase the risk of several malignancies (high confidence), though the degree to which risks may increase remains unclear.'' Cancers, also known as malignant neoplasms, include a heterogeneous collection of diseases with various causal pathways, many with environmental influences. Malignant neoplasms impose a substantial burden of disease globally and are responsible for slightly more than 10 million deaths and 251 million DALYs globally in 2019 (Vos et al., 2020). Climatic hazards affect exposure pathways for several different chemical hazards associated with carcinogenesis ( [[#Portier--2010|Portier et al., 2010]] ). Most relevant literature has focused on elaborating potential pathways and producing qualitative or quantitative estimates of effect, though there is limited literature on current and projected impacts.

The vast majority of elaborated pathways point to increased risk; for example, there is concern that climate change may alter the fate and transport of carcinogenic polyaromatic hydrocarbons ( [[#Domínguez-Morueco--2019|Domínguez-Morueco et al., 2019]] ) and increase mobilisation of carcinogens such as bromide ( [[#Regli--2015|Regli et al., 2015]] ), persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including polychlorinated-biphenyls that have accumulated in areas contaminated by industrial runoff ( [[#Miner--2018|Miner et al., 2018]] ) and radioactive material ( [[#Evangeliou--2014|Evangeliou et al., 2014]] ). Exposure to these known carcinogens can occur through multiple environmental media and can be increased by climate change, for example through increased flooding related to extreme precipitation events and mobilisation of sediment where carcinogens have accumulated ( [[#León--2017|León et al., 2017]] ; [[#Santiago--2012|Santiago and Rivas, 2012]] ). In addition, there is concern that changes in ultraviolet light exposure related to shifts in precipitation may increase the incidence of malignant melanoma, particularly for outdoor workers ( [[#Modenese--2018|Modenese et al., 2018]] ). Other harmful pathways include migration of and increased exposure to liver flukes, which cause hepatobiliary cancer ( [[#Prueksapanich--2018|Prueksapanich et al., 2018]] ) and the introduction of infectious diseases such as schistosomiasis that increase cancer risk due to climate-related migration ( [[#Ahmed--2014|Ahmed et al., 2014]] ). Increased exposure to carcinogenic toxins via multiple pathways is also a concern. Aflatoxin exposure, for example, is expected to increase in Europe ( [[#Moretti--2019|Moretti et al., 2019]] ), India ( [[#Shekhar--2018|Shekhar et al., 2018]] ), Africa ( [[#Gnonlonfin--2013|Gnonlonfin et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bandyopadhyay--2016|Bandyopadhyay et al., 2016]] ) and North America ( [[#Wu--2011|Wu et al., 2011]] ). Other carcinogenic toxins originate from cyanobacteria blooms ( [[#Lee--2017a|Lee et al., 2017a]] ), which are projected to increase in frequency and distribution with climate change ( [[#Wells--2015|Wells et al., 2015]] ; [[#Paerl--2016|Paerl et al., 2016]] ; [[#Chapra--2017|Chapra et al., 2017]] ).

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