Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

=== Observed Trends and Projections in Regional Climate ===

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'''Most land areas have warmed faster than the global average (''' ''high confidence'' ''') and''' ''very likely'' '''by at least 0.1°C per decade since 1960. A surface temperature change signal has''' ''likely'' '''emerged over all land areas. Many areas''' ''very likely'' '''warmed faster since the 1980s, including areas of northern, eastern and south-western Africa, Australia, Central America, Amazonia and West Antarctica (0.2°C–0.3°C per decade), the Arabian Peninsula, Central and East Asia and Europe (0.3°C–0.5°C per decade), and Arctic and near-Arctic land regions (up to 1°C per decade, or more in a few areas).''' { Figure Atlas.11, Interactive Atlas, [[#Atlas.3.1|Atlas.3.1]] , [[#Atlas.4.2|Atlas.4.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.1.2|Atlas.5.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.2.2|Atlas.5.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.2|Atlas.5.3.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.4.2|Atlas.5.4.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.5.2|Atlas.5.5.2]] , [[#Atlas.6.1.2|Atlas.6.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.6.2.2|Atlas.6.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.7.2|Atlas.7.2]] , [[#Atlas.8.2|Atlas.8.2]] , [[#Atlas.9.2|Atlas.9.2]] , [[#Atlas.10.2|Atlas.10.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.1.2|Atlas.11.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.2|Atlas.11.2.2]] }

'''Significant positive trends in precipitation have been observed in most of North Asia, parts of West Central Asia, South-Eastern South America, Northern Europe, Eastern North America, Western Antarctica and the Arctic (''' ''medium confidence'' '''). Significant negative trends have been observed in the Horn of Africa and south-west of the state of Western Australia (''' ''high confidence'' '''), parts of the Russian Far East, some parts of the Mediterranean and of the Caribbean, south-east and north-east Brazil, and southern Africa (''' ''medium confidence'' '''), with the trend in southern Africa attributed to anthropogenic (human-caused) warming of the Indian Ocean.''' In many other land areas there are no significant trends in annual precipitation over the period 1960–2015 though increases in average precipitation intensity have been observed in the Sahel and South East Asia ( ''medium confidence'' ). { Figure Atlas.11, Interactive Atlas, [[#Atlas.3.1|Atlas.3.1]] , [[#Atlas.4.2|Atlas.4.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.1.2|Atlas.5.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.2.2|Atlas.5.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.2|Atlas.5.3.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.4.2|Atlas.5.4.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.5.2|Atlas.5.5.2]] , [[#Atlas.6.1.2|Atlas.6.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.6.2.2|Atlas.6.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.7.2|Atlas.7.2]] , [[#Atlas.8.2|Atlas.8.2]] , [[#Atlas.9.2|Atlas.9.2]] , [[#Atlas.10.2|Atlas.10.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.1.2|Atlas.11.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.2|Atlas.11.2.2]] }

'''The observed warming trends are projected to continue over the 21st century (''' ''high confidence'' ''') and over most land regions at a rate higher than the global average. At a global warming level of 4°C (i.e., relative to an 1850–1900 baseline) it is''' ''likely'' '''that most land areas will experience a further warming (from a 1995–2014 baseline) of at least 3°C and in some areas significantly more, including increases of 4°C–6°C in the Sahara/Sahel; South West, Central and North Asia; Northern South America and Amazonia; Western and Central, and Eastern Europe; and Western, Central and Eastern North America; and up to 8°C or more in some Arctic regions.''' Across each of the continents, higher warming is ''likely'' to occur in northern Africa, the central interior of southern and Western Africa; in North Asia; in Central Australia; in Amazonia; in Northern Europe and northern North America ( ''high confidence'' ). Ranges of regional warming for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C, and for other time periods and emissions scenarios are available in the Interactive Atlas from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) projections. { Figure Atlas.12, Interactive Atlas, [[#Atlas.4.4|Atlas.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.1.4|Atlas.5.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.2.4|Atlas.5.2.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.4|Atlas.5.3.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.4.4|Atlas.5.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.5.4|Atlas.5.5.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.4|Atlas.6.4]] , [[#Atlas.7|Atlas.7.4]] , [[#Atlas.8.4|Atlas.8.4]] , [[#Atlas.9.4|Atlas.9.4]] , [[#Atlas.10.4|Atlas.10.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.4|Atlas.11.4]] }

'''For given global warming levels, model projections from CMIP6 show future regional warming and precipitation changes that are similar to those projected by CMIP5. However, the larger climate sensitivity in some CMIP6 models and differences in the model forcings lead to a wider range of and higher projected regional warming in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 projections for given time periods and emissions scenarios.''' { Figure Atlas.1 3, [[#Atlas.4.4|Atlas.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.1.4|Atlas.5.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.2.4|Atlas.5.2.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.4|Atlas.5.3.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.4.4|Atlas.5.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.5.4|Atlas.5.5.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.1|Atlas.6.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.2|Atlas.6.2.4]] , [[#Atlas.7|Atlas.7.4]] , [[#Atlas.8.4|Atlas.8.4]] , [[#Atlas.9.4|Atlas.9.4]] , [[#Atlas.10.4|Atlas.10.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.1.4|Atlas.11.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.4|Atlas.11.2.4]] }

'''Precipitation will change in most regions, either through changes in mean values or the characteristics of rainy seasons or daily precipitation statistics (''' ''high confidence'' '''). Regions where annual precipitation is''' ''likely'' '''to increase include the Ethiopian Highlands; East, South and North Asia; South-Eastern South America; Northern Europe; northern and Eastern North America and the polar regions. Regions where annual precipitation is''' ''likely'' '''to decrease include northern and south-western southern Africa, Indonesia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, south-western Australia, Central America, South-Western South America and southern Europe.''' Changes in monsoons are ''likely'' to result in increased precipitation in eastern and northern China and in South Asia in summer ( ''high confidence'' ). Precipitation intensity will increase in many areas, including in some where annual mean reductions are ''likely'' (e.g., southern Africa) ( ''high confidence'' ). Ranges of regional mean precipitation change for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C, and for other time periods and emissions scenarios are available in the Interactive Atlas from CMIP5, CORDEX and CMIP6 projections. { Figure Atlas.1 3, Interactive Atlas, [[#Atlas.4.4|Atlas.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.1.4|Atlas.5.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.2.4|Atlas.5.2.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.4|Atlas.5.3.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.4.4|Atlas.5.4.4]] , [[#Atlas.5.5.4|Atlas.5.5.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.1|Atlas.6.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.2|Atlas.6.2.4]] , [[#Atlas.7|Atlas.7.4]] , [[#Atlas.8.4|Atlas.8.4]] , [[#Atlas.9.4|Atlas.9.4]] , [[#Atlas.10.4|Atlas.10.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.1.4|Atlas.11.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.4|Atlas.11.2.4]] }

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