Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

===== What Are the Future Risks? =====

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'''Warming in Europe will continue to rise faster than the global mean, widening risk disparities across Europe in the 21st century (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Largely negative impacts are projected for southern regions (e.g., increased cooling needs and water demand, losses in agricultural production and water scarcity) and some short-term benefits are anticipated in the north (e.g., increased crop yields and forest growth) {13.1.4;13.2.1;13.3.1;13.4.1;13.5.1;13.6;13.7.1;13.10.2} .

'''Four key risks (KR) have been identified for Europe, with most becoming more severe at 2''' '''°C global warming levels (GWL) compared with 1.5°C GWL in scenarios with low to medium adaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' From 3°C GWL and even with high adaptation, severe risks remain for many sectors in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ). Key risks are: mortality and morbidity of people and ecosystems disruptions due to heat (KR1: heat); loss in agricultural production due to combined heat and droughts (KR2: agriculture); water scarcity across sectors (KR3: water scarcity); impacts of floods on people, economies and infrastructure (KR4: flooding) {13.10.2} .

'''KR1: The number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two- to threefold at 3''' ° '''C compared with 1.5''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''high confiden''''' '''ce).''' Risk consequences will become severe more rapidly in Southern and Western Central Europe and urban areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Thermal comfort hours during summer will decrease significantly ( ''high confidence'' ), by as much as 74% in Southern Europe at 3°C GWL. Above 3°C GWL, there are limits to the adaptation potential of people and existing health systems, particularly in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and areas where health systems are under pressure ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.6.1;13.6.2;13.7.1;13.7.2;13.8.1;13.10.2.1} .

'''KR1: Warming will decrease suitable habitat space for current terrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their composition, increasing in severity above 2''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''very''''' '''''high''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' Fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, threatening biodiversity and carbon sinks ( ''medium confidence'' ). Adaptation actions (e.g., habitat restoration and protection, fire and forest management, and agroecology) can increase the resilience of ecosystems and their services. Trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation options (e.g., coastal infrastructure and NbS) will result in risks for the integrity and function of ecosystems ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.3.1;13.3.2;13.4.1;13.4.2;13.10.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2} .

'''KR2: Due to a combination of heat and drought, substantive agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains in Northern Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Yield losses for maize will reach 50% in response to 3°C GWL, especially in Southern Europe. Yields of some crops (e.g., wheat) may increase in Northern Europe if warming does not exceed 2°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). While irrigation is an effective adaptation option for agriculture, the ability to adapt using irrigation will be increasingly limited by water availability, especially in response to GWL above 3°C ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.5.1;13.5.2;13.10.2.2} .

'''KR3: Risk of water scarcity will become high at 1.5''' ° '''C and very high at 3''' ° '''C GWL in Southern Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), and increase from moderate to high in Western Central Europe (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' In Southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2°C GWL; under 3°C GWL, this risk will double, and significant economic losses in water- and energy-dependent sectors may arise ( ''medium confidence'' ). For Western Central and Southern Europe, and for many cities, the risk of water scarcity will be strongly increasing under 3°C GWL. Adaptation becomes increasingly difficult at 3°C GWL and above, due to geophysical and technological limits; hard limits are ''likely'' [[#footnote-000|2]] first reached in parts of Southern Europe {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.1;13.10.2.3} .

'''KR4: Due to warming, changes in precipitation and sea level rise (SLR), risks to people and infrastructures from coastal, riverine and pluvial flooding will increase in Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Risks of inundation and extreme flooding will increase with the accelerating pace of SLR along Europe’s coasts ( ''high confidence'' ). Above 3°C GWL, damage costs and people affected by precipitation and river flooding may double. Coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least tenfold by the end of the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and mitigation ( ''high confidence'' ). Sea level rise represents an existential threat for coastal communities and their cultural heritage, particularly beyond 2100 {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.2;13.10.2.4;Box 13.1; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3} .

'''European cities are hotspots for multiple risks of increasing temperatures and extreme heat, floods and droughts (''' '''''high''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' Warming beyond 2°C GWL is projected to result in widespread impacts on infrastructure and businesses ( ''high confidence'' ). These impacts include increased risks for energy supply ( ''high confidence'' ) and transport infrastructure ( ''medium confidence'' ), increases in air conditioning needs ( ''very high confidence'' ) and high water demand ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.10.2} .

'''European regions are affected by multiple key risks, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These risks may co-occur and amplify each other, but there is uncertainty about their interactions and their quantifications. There is ''high confidence'' that consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems will be substantial: the number of people exposed to KRs and economic losses are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ); and increased risks are also projected for biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as carbon regulation. The risks resulting from changes in climatic and non-climatic drivers in many sectors is a key gap in knowledge ( ''high confidence'' ). This gap prevents the precise assessment of systemic risks, socio-ecological tipping points and limits to adaptation {13.10.2;13.10.3;13.10.4} .

'''Climate risks from outside Europe are emerging due to a combination of the position of European countries in the global supply chain and shared resources (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There is emerging evidence that climate risks in Europe may also impact financial markets, food production and marine resources beyond Europe. Exposure of European countries to inter-regional risks can be reduced by international governance and collaboration on adaptation in other regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.5.2;13.9.1;13.9.2;13.11; Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in Chapter16} .

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