Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

===== Observed impacts =====

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'''The impacts of changes in climate-related systems have been identified in a wide range of natural, human and managed systems (''' '''''very high confidence''''' [[#footnote-002|1]] ''').''' Compared with the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), there is more evidence for impacts of long-term changes in climate-related systems (including the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere) on socioeconomic indicators and ''high confidence'' in the sensitivity of societies to weather conditions. There is also stronger evidence for impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems, including the observed widespread mortality of warm water corals, far reaching shifts in phenology in marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the expansion of tropical species into the ranges of temperate species, and boreal species moving into Arctic regions ( ''high confidence'' ). {16.2.3, 16.2.3.1}

'''Increased rainfall intensity associated with tropical cyclones and rising sea levels have contributed to observed damages in local coastal systems (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' However, while the impact is expected to be widespread, formal attribution of damages to long-term changes in the climate-related systems is still limited by restricted knowledge about changes in exposure and vulnerability and the missing quantification of the contribution of sea level rise to the extent of flooded areas. {16.2.3.3}

'''Due to complex interactions with socioeconomic conditions, evidence on the impact of long-term climate change on crop prices and malnutrition is largely lacking''' , while the sensitivity of malnutrition to weather conditions has become more evident in some regions, particularly Africa ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). A negative impact of long-term climate change on crop yields has been identified in some regions (e.g., wheat yields in Europe) ( ''medium confidence'' ), while studies are still inconsistent in other regions. {16.2.3.4}

'''Climate change has increased observed heat-related mortality (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') and contributed to the observed latitudinal or altitudinal range expansion of vector-borne diseases into previously colder areas (''' '''''medium''''' '''to''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), while evidence on the impact of long-term climate change on water-borne diseases is largely lacking.''' Overall, there is extensive observational evidence that extreme ambient temperatures increase human mortality ( ''high confidence'' ) and that the occurrence of water- and vector-borne diseases is sensitive to weather conditions ( ''high confidence'' ). {16.2.3.5, 16.2.3.6, 16.2.3.7}

'''Extreme weather events not only cause substantial direct economic damage (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), but also reduce economic growth in the short term (year of, and year after event) (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') as well as in the long term (up to 15 years after the event) (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), with more severe impacts in developing than in industrialised economies (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Evidence has increased for all of these conclusions; however, evidence for impacts of long-term climate change is still limited. {16.2.3.7}

'''Climate variability and extremes are associated with increased prevalence of conflict, with more consistent evidence for low-intensity organised violence than for major armed conflict (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Compared with other socioeconomic drivers, the link is relatively weak ( ''medium confidence'' ) and conditional on high population size, low socioeconomic development, high political marginalisation and high agricultural dependence ( ''medium confidence'' ). Literature also suggests a larger climate-related influence on the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict outbreak ( ''low confidence'' ). There is insufficient evidence at present to attribute armed conflict to climate change. {16.2.3.8}

'''There is''' '''''high confidence''''' '''that anthropogenic climate forcing has had an impact on internal displacement, given the observed impact of anthropogenic climate forcing on the occurrence of weather extremes (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''', Table SM16.21) and the strong contribution of weather extremes to observed displacement (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' However, the link between long-term changes in the climate-related systems has not been demonstrated systematically, and so far there is no attribution of observed trends in displacement to long-term changes in the climate-related systems. Links between weather fluctuations (including extreme events) and human mobility are complex and conditional on socioeconomic situations; for example, poor populations may more often be involuntarily displaced or ‘trapped’ and not be able to migrate. {16.2.3.9}

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