Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-18 (section)

=== 18.1.1 Understanding Climate Resilient Development ===

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Past IPCC Assessment Reports have consistently examined extensive literature on the links between climate change, adaptation and sustainable development ( [[#Smit--2001|Smit et al., 2001]] ; [[#Klein--2007|Klein et al., 2007]] ; [[#Yohe--2007|Yohe et al., 2007]] ). However, studies that explicitly refer to CRD as a concept or a guide for policy and practice remain modest ( ''very high confidence'' ). The concept of CRD appeared in scholarly literature and development program documents over a decade ago ( [[#Kamal%20Uddin--2006|Kamal Uddin et al., 2006]] ; [[#Garg--2007|Garg and Halsnæs, 2007]] ) and has been used in more recent IPCC assessment reports and special reports (e.g., [[#Denton--2014|Denton et al., 2014]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). Similarly, the use of the term climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) dates to 2009 ( [[#Ayers--2009|Ayers and Huq, 2009]] ), but its use accelerated after appearing in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) publications around the launch of the Green Climate Fund ( [[#UNFCCC--2011|UNFCCC, 2011]] ). While this chapter prioritises the CRD literature, it also recognises that a broad range of literature, disciplinary expertise and development practice is relevant to the concept of CRD.

Much of this literature is assessed in recent IPCC Special Reports ( [[#Rogelj--2018|Rogelj et al., 2018]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hurlbert--2019|Hurlbert et al., 2019]] ; [[#Oppenheimer--2019|Oppenheimer et al., 2019]] ), but new studies have continued to emerge. More specific uses of CRD found in the literature describe development that seeks to achieve poverty reduction and adaptation to climate change simultaneously without explicit mention of mitigation ( [[#USAID--2014|USAID, 2014]] ), as well as mitigation and poverty reduction, described as ‘low-carbon development’, without explicit mention of adaptation ( [[#Alam--2011|Alam et al., 2011]] ; [[#Fankhauser--2016|Fankhauser and McDermott, 2016]] ). Other similar terms include ‘climate safe’, ‘climate compatible’ and ‘climate smart’ development ( [[#Huxham--2015|Huxham et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kim--2017b|Kim et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Ficklin--2018|Ficklin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mcleod--2018|Mcleod et al., 2018]] ), each with varying nuances. Climate compatible development, coined by [[#Mitchell--2010|Mitchell and Maxwell (2010)]] , specifically describes a ‘triple win’ of adaptation, mitigation and development ( [[#Antwi-Agyei--2017|Antwi-Agyei et al., 2017]] ; [[#Favretto--2018|Favretto et al., 2018]] ) (see also [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.6|Section 8.6]] ). In this spirit, AR5 specifically referred to CRD as ‘ ''development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development'' ’ ( [[#Denton--2014|Denton et al., 2014]] ). This chapter builds on the AR5 and, for the purposes of assessment, formally defines CRD as ''a process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development for all.'' This extension of the earlier definition reflects the emphasis in recent literature on equity as a core element of sustainable development as well as the objective of the SDGs to ‘ ''create conditions for sustainable, inclusive and sustained economic growth, shared prosperity and decent work for all, taking into account different levels of national development and capacities'' ’ ( [[#United%20Nations--2015|United Nations, 2015]] : 3/35).

Past, present and future concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the direct result of both natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which are, in turn, a function of past and current patterns of human and economic development ( ''very high confidence'' , WGI SPM [ [[#IPCC--2021b|IPCC, 2021b]] ]). This includes development processes that drive land use change, extractive industries, manufacturing and trade, energy production, food production, infrastructure development and transportation. These patterns of development are therefore drivers of current and future climate risk to specific sectors, regions and populations ( [[#Byers--2018|Byers et al., 2018]] ), as well as the demand for both mitigation and adaptation as a means of preventing climate change from undermining development goals. The SDGs represent targets for supporting human and ecological well-being in a sustainable manner. Yet, while progress is being made towards a number of the SDGs, success in achieving all of the SDGs by 2030 across all global regions remains uncertain ( ''high agreement'' , ''medium evidence'' ) ( [[#United%20Nations--2021|]] [[#United%20Nations--2021|United Nations, 2021]] ). Moreover, current commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not yet consistent with limiting changes in global mean temperature elevation to well-below 2°C or 1.5°C ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2018a|IPCC, 2018a]] ) (see also [[#18.2|Section 18.2]] ).

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are just one of a number of planetary boundaries which define safe operating spaces for humanity and therefore opportunities for achieving sustainable and CRD. Exceeding these boundaries poses increased risk of large-scale abrupt or irreversible environmental changes that would threaten human and ecological well-being ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Rockström--2009a|Rockström et al., 2009a]] ; [[#Rockström--2009b|Rockström et al., 2009b]] ; [[#Butler--2017|Butler, 2017]] ; [[#Schleussner--2021|Schleussner et al., 2021]] ). Other planetary boundaries reported in the literature such as biodiversity loss, changes in land systems and freshwater use are also directly influenced by patterns of development as well as climate change (Sections 18.2, 18.5). Current rates of species extinction, conversion of land for crop production and exploitation of water resources exceed planetary boundaries, thereby undermining CRD. Moreover, studies indicate that achievement of the SDGs, while consistent with maintaining some planetary boundaries, could undermine others ( [[#O’Neill--2018|O’Neill et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hickel--2019|Hickel, 2019]] ; [[#Randers--2019|Randers et al., 2019]] ) ( [[#18.2|Section 18.2]] ), suggesting significant shifts in current patterns of development are necessary to maintain development within planetary boundaries.

Exceedance of planetary boundaries contributes to human and ecological vulnerability to climate change and other shocks and stressors. People and regions that already face high rates of natural resource use, ecosystem degradation and poverty are more vulnerable to climate change impacts, compounding existing development challenges in regions that are already strained ( [[#IPCC--2014a|IPCC, 2014a]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). The International Monetary Fund, for example, found that for a medium- and low-income developing country with an annual average temperature of 25°C, the effect of a 1°C increase in temperature is a reduction in economic growth by 1.2% ( [[#Acevedo--2018|Acevedo et al., 2018]] ). Countries whose economies are projected to be hard hit by an increase in temperature account for only about 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016, but are home to nearly 60% of the global population. This is expected to rise to more than 75% by the end of the century. These economic impacts are a function of the underlying vulnerability of low- and middle-income developing economies to the impacts of climate change ( [[#18.5|Section 18.5]] ). Such vulnerability was also evidenced and enhanced by the COVID-19 pandemic which slowed progress on the SDGs in multiple nations ( [[#Naidoo--2020|Naidoo and Fisher, 2020]] ; Srivastava et al., 2020; [[#Bherwani--2021|Bherwani et al., 2021]] ).

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