Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== Projected Impacts ===

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'''Climate change will make some current food production areas unsuitable (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Current global crop and livestock areas will increasingly become climatically unsuitable under a high-emission scenario ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., 10% by 2050, over 30% by 2100 under SSP-8.5 versus below 8% by 2100 under SSP1-2.6). Increased, potentially concurrent climate extremes will periodically increase simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in this chapter, &lt;a class='section-link' data-title='Projected Impacts on Food Security' href='/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-5#5.12.4'&gt;Section 5.12.4&lt;/a&gt;; WGI Section 11.8}

'''Impacts on food availability and nutritional quality will increase the number of people at risk of hunger, malnutrition and diet-related mortality (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will increase the number of people at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., between 8 million under SSP1-6.0 and 80 million people under SSP3-6.0). Increased CO 2 concentrations will reduce nutrient density of some crops ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change will increase loss of years of full health [[#footnote-002|3]] by 10% in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 because of undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.4.3, 5.12.1.2, 5.12.4; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}

'''Climate change will increasingly expose outdoor workers and animals to heat stress, reducing labour capacity, animal health, and dairy and meat production''' ( ''high confidence'' ). The number of days with climatically stressful conditions for outdoor workers will increase by up to 250 workdays per year by century’s end in some parts of South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and South America under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, with negative consequences such as reduced food productivity, higher costs and prices ( ''medium confidence'' ). From early- to end-century, cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72–136 additional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity under SSP5-8.5. Meat and milk productivity will be reduced ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.5.3.4; 5.12.4}

'''Climate change will further increase pressures on terrestrial ecosystem services supporting global food systems (''' '''''high''''' '''co''' '''''nfidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Greenhouse-gas emissions will negatively impact air, soil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields ( ''high'' co ''nfidence)'' . {5.4.3, Box 5.3, Box 5.4, 5.5.3.4; 5.7.1, 5.7.4, 5.10.3}

'''Climate change will significantly alter aquatic food provisioning services and water security with regional variances (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will reduce marine fisheries and aquaculture productivity, altering the species that will be fished or cultured, and reducing aquaculture habitat in tropical and subtropical areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Global ocean animal biomass will decrease by 5–17% under RCP2.6 and 8.5, respectively, from 1970 to 2100 with an average decline of 5% for every 1°C of warming, affecting food provisioning, revenue value and distribution ( ''medium confidence'' ). Global marine aquaculture will decline under warming and acidification from 2020 to 2100, with potential short-term gains for temperate finfish and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture from habitat reduction (50–100% for some countries in the Northern Hemisphere) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Changes in precipitation, sea level, temperature and extreme climate events will affect food provisioning from inland and coastal aquatic systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Sea level rise and altered precipitation will increase coastal inundation and water conflicts between water-dependent sectors, such as rice production, direct human use and hydropower ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.8.3, 5.9.3, 5.13, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}

'''The occurrence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, including zoonoses, in agricultural, forest and food systems (terrestrial and aquatic) will be altered, and their control will become costlier (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Changes in the rates of reproduction and distribution of weeds, insect pests, pathogens and disease vectors will increase biotic stress on crops, forests and livestock, and will increase the risk of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). Risks will increase for climate-driven emerging zoonoses ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). {5.4.1.3, 5.9.4, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}

'''Forest production systems will have variable responses to climate change across regions, with negative effects being more predominant in tropical forests (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' In temperate and boreal regions, some productivity gains are projected, but tree mortality will increase in some areas ( ''high confidence'' ). In tropical forests, change in species composition and forest structure will lower production ''(medium confidence'' ). Some models project a possible increase in global wood supply and lowering of average wood prices, but they do not account for the negative impacts of extreme events and thus possibly overestimate the wood supply ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.6.2}

'''Climate change will negatively impact food safety (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Higher temperatures and humidity will favour toxigenic fungi, plant and animal-based pathogens, and harmful algal blooms (HABs) ( ''high confidence'' ). More frequent and intense flood events and increased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination ( ''high confidence'' ). Incidence and severity of HABs and water-borne diseases will increase, as will indirect effects from infrastructure damage during extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.4.3, 5.5.2.3, 5.8.1, 5.8.2, 5.8.3, 5.9.1, 5.11.1, 5.11.3, 5.12.3; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2}

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