Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-7 (section)

===== Projected Risks and Vulnerabilities =====

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'''A significant increase in ill health and premature deaths from climate-sensitive diseases and conditions is projected due to climate change''' '''''(''''' ''high confidence'' ''''')''''' '''.''' An excess of 250,000 deaths yr –1 by 2050 attributable to climate change is projected due to heat, undernutrition, malaria and diarrhoeal disease, with more than half of this excess mortality projected for Africa (compared to a 1961–1991 baseline period for a mid-range emissions scenario) ''(high confidence)'' . Risks for heat-related morbidity and mortality, ozone-related mortality, malaria, diseases carried by ''Aedes'' sp. mosquitoes, Lyme disease and West Nile fever, as well as the temperatures at which risk transitions occur (i.e. from moderate to high to very high), are contingent on future development pathways ''(high confidence)'' {7.3.1} .

'''Climate change is projected to significantly increase population exposure to heatwaves (''' ''very high confidence'' ''') and heat-related morbidity and mortality''' '''''(''''' ''high confidence'' ''''').''''' Models suggest exposure increases 16 times under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and 36 times under RCP8.5, with the impact of warming amplified under development pathways that do not foster sustainable development ''.'' Globally, the impact of projected climate change on temperature-related mortality is expected to be a net increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation ( ''high confidence).'' Heat related cardiovascular disease mortality is projected to increase by the end of this century ''(high confidence).'' Strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality are projected to emerge later this century, mainly driven by population growth and aging in regions with tropical and subtropical climates ''(very high confidence)'' {7.3.1} .

'''The burdens of several climate-sensitive food-borne, waterborne, and vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are projected to increase under climate change, assuming no additional adaptation''' '''''(''''' ''very high confidence'' ''''')''''' . The distribution and intensity of transmission of malaria is expected to decrease in some areas and increase in others, with increases projected mainly along the current edges of its geographic distribution in endemic areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and South America ''(high confidence)'' . Dengue risk will increase, with a larger spatio-temporal distribution in Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, potentially putting another 2.25 billion people at risk ''(high confidence).'' Higher incidence rates are projected for Lyme disease in the Northern Hemisphere ''(high confidence)'' and for transmission of ''Schistosoma mansoni'' in eastern Africa ''(high confidence)'' {7.3.1; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2} .

'''Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and climate change are projected to increase diet-related risk factors and related non-communicable diseasess globally and increase undernutrition, stunting and related childhood mortality particularly in Africa and Asia, with outcomes depending on the extent of mitigation and adaptation''' '''''(''''' ''high confidence'' ''''')''''' '''.''' These projected changes are expected to slow progress towards eradication of child undernutrition and malnutrition ''(high confidence)'' . Higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce the nutritional quality of wheat, rice and other major crops, potentially affecting millions of people at a doubling of carbon dioxide ''(very high confidence)'' {7.3.1} .

'''Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on well-being and to further threaten mental health (''' ''very high confidence'' ''').''' Children and adolescents, particularly girls, elderly people, and people with existing mental, physical and medical challenges are particularly at risk. Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to high temperatures, extreme weather events, displacement, malnutrition, conflict, climate-related economic and social losses, and anxiety and distress associated with worry about climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ) {7.3.1.11} .

'''Future climate-related migration is expected to vary by region and over time, according to future climatic drivers, patterns of population growth, adaptive capacity of exposed populations and international development and migration policies (''' ''high confidence'' ''').''' The wide range of potential outcomes is reflected in model projections of population displacements by 2050 in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia due to climate change, which vary from 31 million to 143 million people, depending on assumptions about future GHG emissions and socioeconomic development trajectories ''(high confidence)'' . With every additional one degree Celsius of warming, the global risks of involuntary displacement due to flood events are projected to rise by approximately 50% ''(high confidence)'' . High emissions/low development scenarios raise the potential for higher levels of migration and involuntary displacement ''(high confidence)'' and increase the need for planned relocations and support for people exposed to climate extremes but lacking the means to move ( ''high confidence'' ) {7.3.2; Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7} .

'''Climate change may increase susceptibility to violent conflict, primarily intra-state conflicts, by strengthening climate-sensitive drivers of conflict''' ''(medium confidence)'' . Future violent conflict risk is highly mediated by socioeconomic development trajectories ( ''high confidence'' ) and so trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk ''(medium confidence)'' . Future climate change may exceed adaptation limits and generate new causal pathways not observed under current climate variability ''(medium confidence).'' Economic shocks are not included in many models of conflict risks currently used, and some projections do not incorporate known socioeconomic predictors of conflict ''(medium confidence)'' . As such, future increases in conflict-related deaths with climate change have been estimated, but results are inconclusive ''(medium confidence)'' .

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