Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/SPM (section)

=== Observed Impacts from Climate Change ===

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'''B.1 Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability. Across sectors and regions the most vulnerable people and systems are observed to be disproportionately affected. The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt. ( '''''high confidence''''' )   Expand [[#figure-spm-2|Figure SPM.2]] Links to chapters TS B.1, Figure TS.5, 1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 5.2, 5.12, 6.2, 7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 9.8, 9.10, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5, 15.3, 16.2, CCP1.2, CCP3.2, CCP4.1, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MIGRATE, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR'''
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'''B.1.1''' Widespread, pervasive impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure have resulted from observed increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including hot extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events, drought and fire weather ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasingly since AR5, these observed impacts have been attributed [[#footnote-022|28]] to human-induced climate change particularly through increased frequency and severity of extreme events. These include increased heat-related human mortality ( ''medium confidence'' ), warm-water coral bleaching and mortality ( ''high confidence'' ), and increased drought-related tree mortality ( ''high confidence'' ). Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires have been attributed to human-induced climate change in some regions ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). Adverse impacts from tropical cyclones, with related losses and damages 19 , have increased due to sea level rise and the increase in heavy precipitation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Impacts in natural and human systems from slow-onset processes [[#footnote-021|29]] such as ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been attributed to human induced climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 5.2, 5.4, 5.6, 5.12, 7.2, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.11, 11.3, Box 11.1, Box 11.2, Table 11.9, 12.3, 12.4, 13.3, 13.5, 13.10, 14.2, 14.5, 15.7, 15.8, 16.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.1 CCP5.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.3 CCP7.3] , CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREME, CCB ILLNESS, WGI AR6 SPM.3, WGI AR6 9, WGI AR6 11.3–11.8, SROCC Chapter 4 }

'''B.1.2''' Climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ). The extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments ( ''high confidence'' ). Widespread deterioration of ecosystem structure and function, resilience and natural adaptive capacity, as well as shifts in seasonal timing have occurred due to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ), with adverse socioeconomic consequences ( ''high confidence'' ). Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards or, on land, also to higher elevations ( ''very high confidence'' ). Hundreds of local losses of species have been driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes ( ''high confidence'' ), as well as mass mortality events on land and in the ocean ( ''very high confidence'' ) and loss of kelp forests ( ''high confidence'' ). Some losses are already irreversible, such as the first species extinctions driven by climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). Other impacts are approaching irreversibility such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or the changes in some mountain ( ''medium confidence'' ) and Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost thaw ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.2a). { TS B.1, Figure TS.5, 2.3, 2.4, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 9.6, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.8, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6, 15.3, 16.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.2 CCP3.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.1 CCP4.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , Figure [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.1 CCP6.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.2 CCP7.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.3 CCP7.3] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB NATURAL, CCB PALEO, CCB SLR, SROCC 2.3 }

'''B.1.3''' Climate change including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes have reduced food and water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals ( ''high confidence'' ). Although overall agricultural productivity has increased, climate change has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally ( ''medium confidence'' ), related negative impacts were mainly in mid- and low latitude regions but positive impacts occurred in some high latitude regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Ocean warming and ocean acidification have adversely affected food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries in some oceanic regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity [[#footnote-020|30]] and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ). Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have increased malnutrition in many communities ( ''high confidence'' ), especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale food producers and low-income households ( ''high confidence'' ), with children, elderly people and pregnant women particularly impacted ( ''high confidence'' ). Roughly half of the world’s population currently experience severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and non-climatic drivers ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.2b) { 3.5, 4.3, 4.4, Box 4.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.12, 7.1, 7.2, 9.8, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.5, 14.4, 14.5, 15.3, 16.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] }

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'''Figure SPM.2 |''' '''Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change.''' Confidence levels reflect uncertainty in attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be assessed with higher confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts across an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular.

'''(a)''' Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts evident at regional and local scales where there is sufficient literature to make an assessment. Impacts are evident on ecosystem structure, species geographic ranges and timing of seasonal life cycles (phenology) (for methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.1).

'''(b)''' Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and – symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a – denoting an increasing adverse impact and a ± denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have been observed (e.g., adverse impacts in one area or food item may occur with positive impacts in another area or food item). Globally, ‘–’ denotes an overall adverse impact; ‘Water scarcity’ considers, e.g., water availability in general, groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production; ‘Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity’ considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality; ‘Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production’ includes marine and freshwater fisheries/production; ‘Infectious diseases’ include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; ‘Heat, malnutrition and other’ considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; ‘Mental health’ includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events; ‘Displacement’ assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; ‘Inland flooding and associated damages’ considers, e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding; ‘Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas’ include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions (for methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.2).

'''B.1.4''' Climate change has adversely affected physical health of people globally ( ''very high confidence)'' and mental health of people in the assessed regions ( ''very high confidence'' ). Climate change impacts on health are mediated through natural and human systems, including economic and social conditions and disruptions ( ''high confidence'' ). In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity ( ''very high confidence'' ). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased ( ''very high confidence'' ). The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors ( ''high confidence'' ). Animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are emerging in new areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Water and food-borne disease risks have increased regionally from climate-sensitive aquatic pathogens, including ''Vibrio'' spp. ( ''high confidence'' ), and from toxic substances from harmful freshwater cyanobacteria ( ''medium confidence'' ). Although diarrheal diseases have decreased globally, higher temperatures, increased rain and flooding have increased the occurrence of diarrheal diseases, including cholera ( ''very high confidence'' ) and other gastrointestinal infections ( ''high confidence'' ). In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures ( ''high confidence'' ), trauma from weather and climate extreme events ( ''very high confidence'' ), and loss of livelihoods and culture ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated with climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress ( ''high confidence'' ). Health services have been disrupted by extreme events such as floods ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3, 5.12, 7.2, Box 7.3, 8.2, 8.3, Box 8.6, Figure 8.10, 9.10, Figure 9.33, Figure 9.34, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.7, 14.4, 14.5, Figure 14.8, 15.3, 16.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.1 CCP5.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , Figure [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , Table CCB ILLNESS.1 }

'''B.1.5''' In urban settings, observed climate change has caused impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ). Multiple climate and non-climate hazards impact cities, settlements and infrastructure and sometimes coincide, magnifying damage ( ''high confidence'' ). Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities ( ''high'' ''confidence'' ), where they have also aggravated air pollution events ( ''medium confidence'' ) and limited functioning of key infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ). Observed impacts are concentrated amongst the economically and socially marginalized urban residents, e.g., in informal settlements ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and impacts to well-being ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3, 6.2, 7.1, 7.2, 9.9, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.6, 14.5, 15.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.2 CCP4.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] }

'''B.1.6''' Overall adverse economic impacts attributable to climate change, including slow-onset and extreme weather events, have been increasingly identified ( ''medium confidence'' ). Some positive economic effects have been identified in regions that have benefited from lower energy demand as well as comparative advantages in agricultural markets and tourism ( ''high confidence'' ). Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism ( ''high confidence'' ), and through outdoor labour productivity ( ''high confidence'' ). Some extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have reduced economic growth in the short-term ( ''high confidence'' ). Non-climatic factors including some patterns of settlement, and siting of infrastructure have contributed to the exposure of more assets to extreme climate hazards increasing the magnitude of the losses ( ''high confidence'' ). Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, with adverse effects on gender and social equity ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.5, 4.2, 5.12, 6.2, 7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 10.4, 13.10, 14.5, Box 14.6, 16.2, Table 16.5, 18.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB GENDER, CWGB ECONOMICS }

'''B.1.7''' Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all regions ( ''high confidence'' ), with Small Island States disproportionately affected ( ''high confidence'' ). Flood and drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa ( ''high confidence'' ) and Central and South America ( ''high confidence'' ). While non-climatic factors are the dominant drivers of existing intrastate violent conflicts, in some assessed regions extreme weather and climate events have had a small, adverse impact on their length, severity or frequency, but the statistical association is weak ( ''medium confidence'' ). Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events, climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.2, 4.3, 5.4, 7.2, 9.8, Box 9.9, Box 10.4, 12.3, 12.5, 16.2, CCB DISASTER, CCB MIGRATE }

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