Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.2.4.1 Fisheries ====

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===== 3.2.4.1.1 Arctic =====

Arctic fisheries are important economically and societally. Large commercial fisheries exist off the coasts of Greenland and in the Barents and Bering Seas (Holsman et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r835|835]]</sup> ; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r836|836]]</sup> ). First-wholesale value for commercial harvest of all species in 2017 in the Eastern Bering Sea was 2.68 billion USD, and for the Barents Sea around 1 billion USD to Norwegian fishers alone. The target species for these commercial fisheries include gadoids, flatfish, herring, red fish ( ''Sebastes'' sp.), salmonids, and capelin. Fisheries in other Arctic regions are relatively small-scale, locally operated, and target a limited number of species (Reist, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r837|837]]</sup> ). Still, these fisheries are of considerable cultural, economic and subsistence importance to local communities (Section 3.5.2.1).

Climate change will affect the spatial distribution and productivity of some commercially important marine fish and shellfish under most RCPs (Section 3.2.3.1) with associated impacts on the distribution and economic viability of commercial fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ). Past performance suggests that high latitude fisheries have been resilient to changing environmental and market drivers. For example, the Norwegian cod fishery has exported dried cod over an unbroken period of more than a thousand years (Barrett et al., 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r838|838]]</sup> ), reflecting the resilience of the northern Norwegian cod fisheries to historic climate variability (Eide, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r839|839]]</sup> ). Also, model projections indicate that expansions in suitable habitat for subarctic species and increased production of planktonic prey due to increasing temperatures and ice retreat, will continue to support commercially important fisheries (Lam et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r840|840]]</sup> ; Eide, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r841|841]]</sup> ; Haug et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r842|842]]</sup> ; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r843|843]]</sup> ) (Section 3.2.3.1.3, Box 3.4) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

However, recent studies in the Bering Sea suggest that future fish production will also depend on how climate change and ocean acidification will alter the quality, quantity and availability of suitable prey; the thermal stress and metabolic demands of resident fish; and species interactions (Section 3.2.3.1.3), suggesting that the future of commercial fisheries in Arctic regions is uncertain (Holsman et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r844|844]]</sup> ). It is also uncertain whether future autumn and winter ocean conditions will be conducive to the establishment of resident overwintering spawning populations that are large enough to support sustainable commercial fishing operations at higher latitude Arctic shelf regions (Section 3.2.3.1) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Projecting the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries is inextricably intertwined with response scenarios regarding risk tolerance in future management of marine resources, advancements in fish capture technology, and markets drivers (e.g., local and global demand, emerging product lines, competition, processing efficiencies and energy costs) (Groeneveld et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r845|845]]</sup> ). Seasonal and interannual variability in ocean conditions influences product quality and costs of fish capture (Haynie and Pfeiffer, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r846|846]]</sup> ) (Table 3.4). Further, past experience suggests that barriers to diversification may limit the portfolio of viable target fisheries available to small-scale fisheries (Ward et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r847|847]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ).

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===== 3.2.4.1.2 Southern Ocean =====

This section examines climate change impacts on Southern Ocean fisheries for Antarctic krill and finfish. Management of these fisheries by CCAMLR and responses to climate change are discussed in Section 3.5.2.1. The main Antarctic fisheries are for Antarctic krill, and for Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish; in 2016 the reported catches for these species were approximately 260 thousand tons for krill (CCAMLR, 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r848|848]]</sup> ) and 11 thousand tons for Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish combined (CCAMLR, 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r850|850]]</sup> ). The mean annual wholesale value of the Antarctic krill fishery was 69.5 USD million yr -1 for the period from 2011 to 2015, and 206.7 million USD yr -1 for toothfish fisheries (combined) over the same period (CCAMLR, 2016b). The fishery for Antarctic krill in the southern Atlantic Sector and the northern West Antarctic Peninsula (together the current area of focus for the fishery) has become increasingly concentrated in space over recent decades, which has raised concern regarding localised impacts on krill predators (Hinke et al., 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r851|851]]</sup> ). The krill fishery has also changed its peak season of operation. In the early years of the fishery, most krill were taken in summer and autumn, with lowest catches being taken in spring. In recent years the lowest catches have occurred over summer, catches have peaked in late autumn, and very little fishing activity has occurred in spring (Nicol and Foster, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r852|852]]</sup> ). Some of these temporal and spatial shifts in the fishery over time have been attributed to reductions in winter sea ice extent in the region (Kawaguchi et al., 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r853|853]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ). Recent increases in the use of krill catch to produce krill oil (as a human health supplement) has also led to vessels concentrating on fishing in autumn and winter when krill are richest in lipids (Nicol and Foster, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r854|854]]</sup> ). Available evidence regarding future changes to Antarctic krill populations (Section 3.2.3.2.1) indicates that the impacts of climate change will be most pronounced in the areas that are currently most important for the Antarctic krill fishery: the Scotia Sea and the northern tip of the AP. Major future changes in the krill fishery itself are expected to be driven by global issues external to the Southern Ocean, including conservation decision making and socioeconomic drivers.

There is limited understanding of the consequences of climate change for Southern Ocean finfish fisheries. Lack of recovery of mackerel icefish ( ''Champsocephalus gunnari'' ) after cessation of fishing in 1995 has been related to anomalous water temperatures (~2 ° C increase related to a strong El Niño) in the subantarctic Indian Ocean and to availability of krill prey in the Atlantic region (Mintenbeck, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r855|855]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ). Differences in temperature tolerance of Patagonian and Antarctic toothfish described in Section 3.2.3.2.3 may have implications for future fisheries of these two species.

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