Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.4.5.1 Observed Impacts ====

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There remains a paucity of data for observed climate-change impacts on Asian agriculture and food systems since the release of IPCC AR5. Most of these impacts have been associated with drought, monsoon rain and oceanic oscillations, the frequency and severity of which have been linked with the changing climate ( [[#Heino--2018|Heino et al., 2018]] ; [[#Heino--2020|Heino et al., 2020]] ). In general, major impacts to agricultural production, such as those observed by the farmers in the Philippines and Indonesia, include among others delays in crop harvesting, declining crop yields and quality of produce, increasing incidence of pests and diseases, stunted growth, livestock mortality and low farm income ( [[#Stevenson--2013|Stevenson et al., 2013]] ). In South Asia, the series of monsoon floods from 2005 to 2015 contributed to a high level of loss in agricultural production with peaks in 2008 and 2015 ( [[#FAO--2018a|FAO, 2018a]] ). Similarly, in Pakistan, farmers are experiencing a decline in crop yields and increasing incidence of crop diseases as a result of climate extremes, particularly floods, droughts and heatwaves ( [[#Fahad--2018|Fahad and Wang, 2018]] ; [[#Ahmad--2019|Ahmad et al., 2019]] ).

Limited studies have quantified the actual impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and the economy. In a study in the Mun River basin, northeast Thailand, yield losses of rice due to past climate trends covering the period 1984–2013 was determined to be in the range of &lt; 50 kg ha –1 per decade or 3% of actual average yields with a high possibility of more serious yield losses in the future ( [[#Prabnakorn--2018|Prabnakorn et al., 2018]] ). Likewise, in China, an economic loss of 595–858 million USD for the corn and soybean sectors was computed from 2000 to 2009 ( [[#Chen--2016b|Chen et al., 2016b]] ). On the other hand, the intensive wheat–maize system in China seems to have benefited from climate change with the northward expansion of the northern limits of maize and multi-cropping systems brought about by the rising temperatures ( [[#Li--2014|Li and Li, 2014]] ).

There is ''high agreement'' in more recent studies that linked the frequency and extent of the El Niño phenomenon with global warming ( [[#Thirumalai--2017|Thirumalai et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wang--2017a|Wang et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ) that can trigger substantial loss in crop and fishery production. The 2004 El Niño caused the Philippines an 18% production loss during the dry season and a 32% production loss during the wet season ( [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz et al., 2017]] ). In the 2015 El Niño event, the Indian oil sardine fishery declined by more than 50% of previous years ( [[#Kripa--2018|Kripa et al., 2018]] ) severely impacting coastal livelihoods and economies ( [[#Shyam--2017|Shyam et al., 2017]] ). The 2015–2016 El Niño also inflicted adverse impacts on agricultural productivity and food security, especially affecting the rural poor in middle- and lower-income countries in Southeast and South Asia ( [[#UNDP%20ESCAP%20OCHA%20RIMES%20APCC--2017|UNDP ESCAP OCHA RIMES APCC, 2017]] ).

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