Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

===== 11.3.4.3.2 Projected impacts =====

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The projected declines in rainfall in far southwest and far southeast mainland Australia are projected to reduce plantation forest yields ( ''high confidence'' ). Warmer temperatures are projected to reduce forest growth in hotter regions (between 7 and 25%), especially where species are grown at the upper range of their temperature tolerances, and increase plantation forest growth (&gt;15%) in cooler margins like Tasmania and the Victorian highlands (2030, A2); emission scenario A2 creates a warming trajectory slightly higher than the RCP6.0 warming scenario, but less than RCP8.5 ( [[#Rogelj--2012|Rogelj et al., 2012]] ; [[#Battaglia--2017|Battaglia and Bruce, 2017]] ). Elevated CO 2 is projected to increase forest growth if other biophysical factors are not limiting ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Quentin--2015|Quentin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Duan--2018|Duan et al., 2018]] ).

Forestry plantations are projected to be negatively impacted from increases in fire weather (Box 11.1), particularly in southern Australia ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pinkard--2014|Pinkard et al., 2014]] ). Increased pest damage due to temperature increases may reduce eucalyptus and pine plantation growth by as much as 40% in some Australian environments by 2050 ( [[#Pinkard--2014|Pinkard et al., 2014]] ). Increased heat and water stress may enhance insect pest defoliation for ''P. radiata'' in Australia (e.g., ''Sirex noctilio'' , ''Ips grandicollis'' and ''Essigella californica'' ) ( [[#Mead--2013|Mead, 2013]] ; [[#Pinkard--2014|Pinkard et al., 2014]] ).

Combined impacts from heavy rainfall, soil erosion, drought, fire and pest incursions are projected to increase risks to the permanence of carbon offset and removal strategies in New Zealand for meeting its climate change targets ( [[#PCE--2019|PCE, 2019]] ; [[#Watt--2019|Watt et al., 2019]] ; [[#Anderegg--2020|Anderegg et al., 2020]] ; [[#Schenuit--2021|Schenuit et al., 2021]] ). Effective management of the interactions between mitigation and adaptation policies can be achieved through governance and institutions, including Māori tribal organisations and sectoral adaptation, to ensure effective and continued carbon sequestration and storage as the climate changes ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Lawrence--2020b|Lawrence et al., 2020b]] ) (11.4.2) (Box 11.5). The productivity of radiata pine ( ''P. radiata D. Don'' ) in New Zealand due to higher CO 2 is projected to increase by 19% by 2040 and 37% by 2090, but greater wind damage to trees is expected ( [[#Watt--2019|Watt et al., 2019]] ). Changes in the distribution of existing weeds, pests and diseases with potential establishment of new sub-tropical pests and seasonal invasions are projected ( [[#Kean--2015|Kean et al., 2015]] ; [[#Watt--2019|Watt et al., 2019]] ; [[#MfE--2020a|MfE, 2020a]] ). Increased pathogens such as pitch canker, red needle cast and North American bark beetles could damage plantations ( [[#Hauraki%20Gulf%20Forum--2017|Hauraki Gulf Forum, 2017]] ; Lantschner, 2017; [[#Watt--2019|Watt et al., 2019]] ).

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