Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.5.1.1 Crop Production ====

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Agriculture is the primary user of land in Europe. In 2013, Europe provided 28% of cereals, 59% of sugar beet and 60% of wine produced globally, as well as being part of a globalised food system with a third of the commodities produced and consumed in Europe traded internationally ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Observed climate change has led to a northward movement of agro-climatic zones in Europe and earlier onset of the growing season ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Warming and precipitation changes since 1990 explain continent-wide reductions in yield of wheat and barley, as well as increases in maize and sugar beet ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Ray--2015|Ray et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2017|Ceglar et al., 2017]] ). Heat stress has increased in SEU in spring, in summer throughout Central and Southern Europe, and recently expanded into the southern boreal zone ( [[#Fontana--2015|Fontana et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Drought, excessive rain and the compound hazards of drought and heat (Sections 13.2.1, 13.3.1, 13.10.2) have increased costs and cause economic losses in forest productivity ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), annual and permanent crops, and livestock farming ( [[#Stahl--2016|Stahl et al., 2016]] ), including losses in wheat production in the EU ( [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ) and EEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ivanov--2016|Ivanov et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loboda--2017|Loboda et al., 2017]] ), with the severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over the past 50 years ( [[#Brás--2021|Brás et al., 2021]] ). Meteorological extremes due to compound effects of cold winters, excessive autumn and spring precipitation, and summer drought caused production losses (up to 30% relative to trend expectations) in 2012, 2016 and 2018 ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ; [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zscheischler--2018|Zscheischler et al., 2018]] ; [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ) that were exceptional compared with recent decades ( [[#Webber--2020|Webber et al., 2020]] ). Regionally, warming caused increases in yields of field-grown fruiting vegetables, decreases in root vegetables, tomatoes and cucumbers ( [[#Potopová--2017|Potopová et al., 2017]] ) and earlier flowering of olive trees ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Garcia-Mozo--2015|Garcia-Mozo et al., 2015]] ). Delayed harvest, due to both wet conditions and earlier harvests in Central Europe in response to warming, has impacted wine quality ( [[#Cook--2016|Cook and Wolkovich, 2016]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2016|van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016]] ; [[#Di%20Lena--2019|Di Lena et al., 2019]] ).

Evidence for growing regional differences of projected climate risks is increasing since AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Donatelli--2015|Donatelli et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moore--2015|Moore and Lobell, 2015]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ). At 1.5°C GWL, compound events which led to recent large wheat losses are projected to become 12% more frequent ( [[#Ben-Ari--2018|Ben-Ari et al., 2018]] ). Growing regions will shift northward or expand for melons ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ), tomatoes and grapevines reaching NEU and EEU in 2050 under 1.5°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hannah--2013|Hannah et al., 2013]] ; [[#Litskas--2019|Litskas et al., 2019]] ), while warming would increase yields of onions, Chinese cabbage and French beans ( [[#Bisbis--2019|Bisbis et al., 2019]] ) ( ''medium confidence'' ). In response to 2°C GWL, agro-climatic zones in Europe are expected to move northward 25–135 km per decade, fastest in EEU ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Negative impacts of warming and drought are counterbalanced by CO 2 fertilisation for crops such as winter wheat ( ''medium confidence, medium agreement'' ), resulting in some regional yield increases with climate change ( [[#Zhao--2017|Zhao et al., 2017]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ).

Reductions in agricultural yields will be higher in the south at 4°C GWL, with lower losses or gains in the north ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.5; [[#Trnka--2014|Trnka et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2016|Webber et al., 2016]] ; [[#Szewczyk--2018|Szewczyk et al., 2018]] ). The largest impacts of warming are projected for maize in SEU ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Knox--2016|Knox et al., 2016]] ) with yield losses across Europe of 10–25% at 1.5°C–2°C GWL and 50–100% at 4°C GWL ( [[#Deryng--2014|Deryng et al., 2014]] ; [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ).

Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Siebert--2017|Siebert et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ). Irrigation can reduces projected heat and drought stress, for example, for wheat and maize ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ), but use is limited by water availability (KR3, [[#13.10.2|Section 13.10.2]] ). The advantages of a longer growing season in NEU and EEU are outbalanced by the increased risk of early spring and summer heatwaves ( [[#Ceglar--2019|Ceglar et al., 2019]] ).

Warming causes range expansion and alters host pathogen association of pests, diseases and weeds affecting the health of European crops ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Caffarra--2012|Caffarra et al., 2012]] ; [[#Pushnya--2015|Pushnya and Shirinyan, 2015]] ; [[#Latchininsky--2017|Latchininsky, 2017]] ) with high risk for contamination of cereals ( [[#Moretti--2019|Moretti et al., 2019]] ). Regionally predicted reduction in rainfall ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) can lead to carryover of herbicides ( [[#Karkanis--2018|Karkanis et al., 2018]] ).

Net yield losses will reduce economic output from agriculture in the EU, reaching a reduction of 7% for the EU and the UK combined, and 10% in SEU at 4°C GWL ( [[#Naumann--2021|Naumann et al., 2021]] ). Farmland values are projected to decrease by 5–9% per degree of warming in SEU ( [[#Van%20Passel--2017|Van Passel et al., 2017]] ). Increased heat and drought stress, and reduced irrigation water availability, will decrease profitability and cause abandonment of farmland in SEU ( ''limited evidence, low confidence'' ) ( [[#Holman--2017|Holman et al., 2017]] ).

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