Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

== TS.E Climate Resilient Development ==

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=== Sustainable development, equity and justice ===

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'''TS.E.1 Climate resilient development implements greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustainable development. With accelerated warming and the intensification of cascading impacts and compounded risks above 1.5°C warming, there is a sharply increasing demand for adaptation and climate resilient development linked to achieving SDGs and equity and balancing societal priorities. There is only limited opportunity to widen the remaining solution space and take advantage of many potentially effective, yet unimplemented, options for reducing society and ecosystem vulnerability (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). (''' Figure TS.2, Figure TS.9 URBAN, Figure TS.11a, Figure TS.13) { 1.2.3, 1.5.1, 1.5.2, 1.5.3, 2.6.7, 3.6.5, 4.8, Box 4.7, 7.1.5, 7.4.6, 13.10.2, 13.11, 17.2.1, 18.1, CCB COVID, CCB FINANCE, CCB HEALTH, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.1.1 Prevailing development pathways do not advance climate resilient development (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). Societal choices in the near term will determine future pathways.''' There is no single pathway or climate that represents climate resilient development for all nations, actors or scales, as well as globally, and many solutions will emerge locally and regionally. Global trends including rising income inequality, urbanisation, migration, continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, human displacement and reversals of long-term trends toward increased life expectancy run counter to the SDGs as well as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate. With progressive climate change, enabling conditions will diminish, and opportunities for successfully transitioning systems for both mitigation and adaptation will become more limited ( ''high confidence'' ). Investments in economic recovery from COVID-19 offer opportunities to promote climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.13) { 16.6.1, 17.2.1, 18.2, 18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4 CCP5.4.4] , CCB COVID }

'''TS.''' '''E.1.2 System transitions can enable climate resilient de''' '''velop''' '''ment when accompanied by appropriate enabling conditio''' '''ns a''' '''nd inclusive arenas of engagement (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Fi ve sy stem transitions are considered: energy, industry, urban and inf rastructure, land and ecosystems, and society. Advancing climate resilient development in specific contexts may necessitate simultaneous progress on all five transitions. Collectively, these system transitions can widen the solution space and accelerate and deepen the implementation of sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation actions by equipping actors and decision makers with more effective options ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, urban ecological infrastructure linked to an appropriate land use mix, street connectivity, open and green spaces and job-housing proximity provides adaptation and mitigation benefits that can aid urban transformation ( ''medium confidence'' ). These system transitions are necessary precursors for more fundamental climate and sustainable-development transformations but can simultaneously be outcomes of transformative actions. Enhancing equity and agency are cross-cutting considerations for all five transitions. Such transitions can generate benefits across different sectors and regions, provided they are facilitated by appropriate enabling conditions, including effective governance, policy implementation, innovation and climate and development finance, which are currently insufficient ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.4, 15.7, 18.3, 18.4, Table 18.5, CCB FEASIB, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.E.1.3 System transitions are highly feasible. For energy system transitions, there is''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''in the high feasibility of resilient infrastructure and efficient water use for power plants and''' '''''high confidence''''' '''in the synergies of this option with mitigation.''' For coastal ecosystem transitions, there is ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' that ecosystem conservation and biodiversity management are increasing adaptive and ecological capacity with socioeconomic co-benefits and positive synergies with carbon sequestration. However, opportunity costs can be a barrier. For land ecosystem transitions, there is ''high confidence'' in the role of agroforestry to increase ecological and adaptive capacity, once economic and cultural barriers and potential land use change trade-offs are overcome. There is ''high confidence'' in improved cropland management and its economic feasibility due to improved productivity. For efficient livestock systems, there is ''medium confidence'' in the high technological and ecological feasibility. (Figure TS.11a) { CCB FEASIB }

'''TS.E.1.4 For urban and infrastructure system transitions, there is''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''for sustainable land use and urban planning.''' There is ''high confidence'' in the economic and ecological feasibility of green infrastructure and ecosystem services, as well as sustainable urban water management, once institutional barriers in the form of limited social and political acceptability are overcome. Social safety nets, disaster risk management and climate services and population health and health systems are considered overarching adaptation options due to their applicability across all system transitions. There is ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' in the high feasibility of disaster risk management and the use of demand-driven and context-specific climate services as well as in the socioeconomic feasibility of social safety nets. Improving health systems through enhancing access to medical services and developing or strengthening surveillance systems can have high feasibility when there is a robust institutional and regulatory framework ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH, Figure TS.9 URBAN, Figure TS.11a, Figure TS.13) { 6.3, CCB FEASIB }

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'''Figure TS.13 |''' '''Climate resilient development is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development.''' This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting climate resilient pathways) by describing how climate resilient development pathways are the result of cumulative societal choices and actions within multiple arenas.

'''Panel''' '''(a)''' Societal choices towards higher climate resilient development (green cog) or lower climate resilient development (red cog) result from interacting decisions and actions by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors, in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, mitigation and development actions in political, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from local to international levels. Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world.

'''Panel''' '''(b)''' Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways towards higher (green) or lower (red) climate resilient development. Past conditions (past emissions, climate change and development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher climate resilient development (dashed green line).

'''Panel''' '''(c)''' Higher climate resilient development is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.4) { 2.6, 3.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 Table SPM.2, SR1.5 Figure SPM.1 } .

'''Panel''' '''(d)''' Appropriate choices for fostering climate resilient development pathways involve considering the portfolio of risks, the potential for adaptations to satisfactorily reduce risks and not exacerbate others, the potential for mitigation measures to interact with risks and adaptations within and across sectors, and how and whether adaptations can be enabled. The graphic table illustrates a possible assembly (not exhaustive) of these considerations for four sectors (agriculture, water, built environments, ecosystems) in the region Africa, showing (i) ''top panel'' : the potential for cascading and compounding effects amongst risks within sectors, between sectors and across boundaries and the possible constraints for adaptation (at what global warming level might risks become too great for adaptation – cell colour) and the adaptation gap to be filled (cell border) (risks are grouped by Representative Key Risks); (ii) ''second panel'' : the potential for adaptations to reduce risks, including their feasibility (cell border), their interaction with other adaptations addressing the same or interacting risks, and whether they are limited by global warming level (cell colour) (possible adaptations are identified for Representative Key Risks); (iii) ''third panel'' : the mitigation measures grouped into categories that might interact with risks and adaptations, including showing their importance (cell border) and whether the interaction would be potentially positive, negative or a mixture of both (cell colour) (note: ‘carbon’ refers to carbon sequestration); (iv) ''bottom panel'' : Enabling conditions for sectors grouped into categories of enablers common across many sectors, showing their importance (cell border) and how they may be suitable across a number of sectors, along with an assessment of the gap in the enabler for satisfactory adaptation (cell colour). Confidence levels on each cell are indicated as *= ''low confidence'' , ** = ''medium confidence'' , *** = ''high confidence.'' (see also SMTS.4, Table SMTS.5) { 16.5.2, Table SM16.4 }

'''TS.E.1.5 There are multiple possible pathways by which communities, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development. Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate resilient development pathways are trajectories for the pursuit of climate resilient development and navigating its complexities. Different actors, the private sector and civil society, influenced by science, local and Indigenous knowledges, and the media, are both active and passive in designing and navigating climate resilient development pathways. Increasing levels of warming may narrow the options and choices available for local survival and sustainable development for human societies and ecosystems. Limiting warming to Paris Agreement goals will reduce the magnitude of climate risks to which people, places, the economy and ecosystems will have to adapt. Reconciling the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development interventions and how they are distributed among different populations and geographies is essential and challenging but also creates the potential to pursue synergies that benefit human and ecological well-being ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.2.1, 18.1, 18.4 }

'''TS.E.1.6. Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating climate resilient development, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Given their current state of development, some regions may prioritise poverty and inequality reduction and economic development over the near term as a means of building capacity for climate action and low-carbon development over the long term. In contrast, developed economies with mature economies and high levels of resilience may prioritise climate action to transition their energy systems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some interventions may be robust in that they are relevant to a broad range of potential development trajectories and could be deployed in a flexible manner. However, other types of interventions, such as those that are dependent upon emerging technologies, may require a specific set of enhanced enabling conditions or factors, including infrastructure, supply chains, international cooperation and education and training that currently limit their implementation to certain settings. Notwithstanding national and regional differences, development practices that are aligned to people, prosperity, partnerships, peace and the planet as defined in Agenda 2030 could enable more climate resilient development. ( ''high confidence'' ) { 18.5, Figure 18.1 }

'''TS.E.1.7 Pursuing climate resilient development involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Scientific assessments of climate change have traditionally framed solutions around the implementation of specific adaptation and mitigation options as mechanisms for reducing climate-related risks. They have given less attention to a fuller set of societal priorities and the role of non-climate policies, social norms, lifestyles, power relationships and worldviews in enabling climate action and sustainable development. Because climate resilient development involves different actors pursuing plural development trajectories in diverse contexts, the pursuit of solutions that are equitable for all requires opening the space for engagement and action to a diversity of people, institutions, forms of knowledge and worldviews. Through inclusive modes of engagement that enhance knowledge sharing and realise the productive potential of diverse perspectives and worldviews, societies could alter institutional structures and arrangements, development processes, choices and actions that have precipitated dangerous climate change, constrained the achievement of SDGs and thus limited pathways to achieving climate resilient development. The current decade is critical to charting climate resilient development pathways that catalyse the transformation of prevailing development practices and offer the greatest promise and potential for human well-being and planetary health ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 18.4, Box 18.1 }

'''TS.E.2 Climate action and sustainable development are interdependent. Pursued in an inclusive and integrated manner, they enhance human and ecological well-being. Sustainable development is fundamental to capacity for climate action, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as well as enhancing social and ecological resilience to climate change. Increasing social and gender equity is an integral part of the technological and social transitions and transformation towards climate resilient development. Such transitions in societal systems reduce poverty and enable greater equity and agency in decision-making. They often require rights-based approaches to protect the livelihoods, priorities and survival of marginalised groups including Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities and children (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 2.6.7, 4.8, 6.3.7, 6.4, 6.4.7, 18.2, 18.4, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.2.1 Conditions enabling rapid increases and innovative climate responses include experience of extreme events or climate education influencing perceptions of urgency, together with the actions of catalysing agents such as social movements and technological entrepreneurs.''' People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to implement risk management measures ( ''high confidence'' ). Autonomous adaptation is very common in locations where people are more exposed to extreme events and have the resources and the temporal capacity to act on their own, for example in remote communities ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.5.2, 4.2.1, 4.6, 4.7.1, 6.4.7, 8.5.2, 9.4.5, 17.4.5, 18.5 }

'''TS.E.2.2 A range of policies, practices and enabling conditions accelerate efforts towards climate resilient development. Diverse actors including youth, women, Indigenous communities and business leaders are the agents of societal changes and transformations that enable climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Greater attention to which actors benefit, fail to benefit or are directly harmed by different types of interventions could significantly advance efforts to pursue climate resilient development. ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). { 4.6, 4.7.1, 5.13, 5.14, 6.4.7, 8.4.5, 9.4.5, 17.4, 18.5 }

'''TS.E.2.3 Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDG 5 on gender equality ensures that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society (e.g., leading to maladaptation practices) (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Adaptation actions do not automatically have positive outcomes for gender equality. Understanding the positive and negative links of adaptation actions with gender equality goals (i.e., SDG 5) is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not exacerbate existing gender-based and other social inequalities. Efforts are needed to change unequal power dynamics and to foster inclusive decision-making for climate adaptation to have a positive impact for gender equality ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' There are very few examples of successful integration of gender and other social inequities in climate policies to address climate change vulnerabilities and questions of social justice ( ''very high confidence'' ). Yet inequities in climate change literacy compounds women’s vulnerability to climate change through its negative effect on climate risk perception { 4.8.3, 9.4.5, 16.1.4, 17.5.1, CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.2.4 Gender-sensitive, equity- and justice-based adaptation approaches, integration of Indigenous knowledge systems within legal frameworks and the promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights reduce vulnerability and increase resilience (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Integrating adaptation into social protection programmes can build long-term resilience to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Nevertheless, social protection programmes can increase resilience to climate related shocks, even if they do not specifically address climate risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDGs is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society, leading to maladaptation practices ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.4, 4.8.3, 4.8.4, 9.4.5, Box 9.1, Box 9.2, Box 9.7, Box 9.8, Box 9.9, Box 9.10, Box 9.11, 14.4, Box 14.1, 17.5.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.2.5 Water can be either an enabler or a hindrance to successful adaptation and sustainable development. Central to equity issues about water is that it remains a public good (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Overcoming institutional and financial constraints (governance, institutions, policies), including path dependency, is among the most important requirements enabling effective adaptation in the water sector ( ''high confidence'' ). Water-related challenges, despite reported adaptation efforts, indicate limits of adaptation in the absence of water neutral mitigation action ( ''medium confidence'' ). For some regions, such as small island states, coastal areas and mountainous regions, water availability already has the potential to become a hard limit on adaptation ( ''limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) ''.'' (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.5, 4.8, 4.6, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.6, 6.4 case study 6.1, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] }

'''TS.E.2.6 Procedural and distributional justice and flexible institutions facilitate successful adaptation and minimise maladaptive outcomes.''' Reorienting existing institutions to become more flexible (e.g., through capacity building and institutional reform) and inclusive is key to building adaptive governance systems that are equipped to take long-term decisions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Enhancing climate governance, institutional capacity and differentiated policies and regulation from the local to global scale enables and accelerates climate resilient development. Transforming financial systems to deliver the SDGs, while accelerating system transitions and addressing physical and transition risks, is a precondition. Changes in lifestyles, human behaviour and preferences can have a significant impact on adaptation implementation, demand and hence emissions and decision-making around climate action ( ''high confidence'' ). Additionally, the use of customary and traditional justice systems, such as those of Indigenous peoples, can enhance the equity of adaptation policy processes ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.8, 4.6,8, 5.2.3, 13.8, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, 17.1, 18.4 }

'''TS.E.2.7 Enabling environments for adaptation that support equitable sustainable development are essential for those with climate-sensitive livelihoods who are often least able to adapt and influence decision-making (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Enabling environments share common governance characteristics, including the meaningful involvement of multiple actors and assets, alongside multiple centres of power at different levels that are well integrated, vertically and horizontally ( ''high confidence'' ). Enabling conditions harness synergies, address moral and ethical choices and divergent values and interests and support just approaches to livelihood transitions that do not undermine human well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate solutions for health, well-being and the changing structure of communities are complex and closely interconnected and call for new approaches to sustainable development that consider interactions between climate, human and socioecological systems to generate climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). To address regionally specific adaptation and developmental needs, five key dimensions of climate resilient development are identified for Africa: climate finance, governance, cross-sectoral and transboundary solutions, adaptation law and climate services and climate change literacy ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.6, 4.8, 6.4.7, 7.1.7, 8.5.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.3, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.3, 9.4.4, 9.4.5, 17.4 }

'''TS.E.2.8 Prevailing ideologies or worldviews, institutions and sociopolitical relations influence development trajectories by framing climate narratives and possibilities for action (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The interplay between worldviews and ethics, sociopolitical relations, institutions and human behaviour influence public engagement by individuals and communities. These open up opportunities for meaningful engagement and co-production of pathways towards climate resilient development. The urgency of climate action is a potential enabler of climate decision-making ( ''medium confidence'' ). Perceptions of urgency encourage communities, businesses and leaders to undertake climate adaptation and mitigation measures more quickly and to prioritise climate action ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.1.3, 6.4.3, 17.1, 17.4.5, 18.5 }

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=== Enablers of societal resilience ===

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'''TS.E.3 A focus on climate risk alone does not enable effective climate resilience (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The integration of consideration of non-climatic drivers into adaptation pathways can reduce climate impacts across food systems, human settlements, health, water, economies and livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Strengthened health, education and basic social services are vital for improving population well-being and supporting climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The use of climate-smart agriculture technologies that strengthen synergies among productivity and mitigation is growing as an important adaptation strategy (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Pertinent information for farmers provided by climate information services is helping them to understand the role of climate compared with other drivers in perceived productivity changes (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Index insurance builds resilience and contributes to adaptation both by protecting farmers’ assets in the face of major climate shocks, by promoting access to credit and by adopting improved farm technologies and practices (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 3.6.4, 4.6, 4.7.1, 7.4.6, Box 9.1, Box 9.7, Box 9.8, Box 9.9, Box 9.10, Box 9.11, 12.5.4 }

'''TS.E.3.1 Societal resilience is strengthened by improving the management of environmental resources and ecosystem health, boosting adaptive capabilities of individuals and communities to anticipate future risks and minimise them and removing drivers of vulnerability to bring together gender justice, equity, Indigenous and local knowledge systems and adaptation planning (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Societal resilience is founded on strengthening local democracy, empowering citizens to shape societal choices to support gender and equity inclusive climate resilient development ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 7.4.1, 7.4.2, 7.4.3, 7.4.4, 7.4.5, 7.4.6, 9.4.5, 13.11.3, 14.4, Box 14.1, 15.5.5, 17.5.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.3.2 Some communities/regions are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of adaptation practices and the scale of action needed (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Among island communities, greater insights into which drivers weaken local communities and Indigenous Peoples’ resilience, together with recognition of the sociopolitical contexts within which communities operate, can assist in identifying opportunities at all scales to enhance climate adaptation and enable action towards climate resilient development pathways ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Adaptation responses to climate-driven impacts in mountain regions vary significantly in terms of goals and priorities, scope, depth and speed of implementation, governance and modes of decision-making and the extent of financial and other resources to implement them ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing risks for present-day global warming, but their efficacy at future warming levels is largely unknown ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' In Australia and New Zealand, a range of incremental and transformative adaptation options and pathways is available as long as enablers are in place to implement them ( ''high confidence'' ). Several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience ( ''high confidence'' ), including better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data; inclusion of Indigenous knowledge; and integrating cultural resources into decision-making ( ''high confidence'' ). { 9.3, 9.6.4, 9.8.3, 9.11.4, 11.7.3, 14.4, Box 14.1, 15.6.1, 15.6.5, 15.7, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.4 CCP5.2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.3.3 Identifying and advancing synergies and co-benefits of mitigation, adaptation and SDGs has occurred slowly and unevenly (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' One area of sustained effort is community-based adaptation planning actions that have potential to be better integrated to enhance well-being and create synergies with the SDG ambitions of leaving no one behind ( ''high confidence'' ). Complex trade-offs and gaps in alignment between mitigation and adaptation over scale and across policy areas where sustainable development is hindered or reversed also remain ( ''medium confidence'' ). Globally, decisions about key infrastructure systems and urban expansion drive risk creation and potential action on climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.7.6, 6.4.1, 6.4.3, 6.4.4, 6.1, 6.2, 6.2.3, 6.3, 6.3.5.1, 6.4, 7.4.7, 9.3.2, CCB HEALTH, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''TS.E.3.4 Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge are crucial for social-ecological system resilience (''' '''''high confi''''' '''''dence''''' ''').''' Indigenous Peoples have been faced with adaptation challenges for centuries and have developed strategies for resilience in changing environments that can enrich and strengthen other adaptation efforts ( ''high confidence'' ). Supporting indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples’ rights and supporting Indigenous knowledge-based adaptation can accelerate effective robust climate resilient development pathways ( ''very high confidence'' ). Indigenous knowledge underpins successful understanding of, responses to and governance of climate change risks ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, Indigenous knowledge contains resource-use practices and ecosystem stewardship strategies that conserve and enhance both wild and domestic biodiversity, resulting in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and species that are often less degraded in Indigenous managed lands in other lands ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' Valuing Indigenous knowledge systems is a key component of climate justice ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.6.5, 2.6.7, 4.8.3, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 4.8.4, 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 7.4.7, Box 7.1, Box 9.2, 12.5.1, 12.5.8, 12.6.2, 13.2.2, 13.8, 13.11, 14.4, 14.7.3, Box 14.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.6 CCP5.2.6] , CP5.4.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.3.5 Ecosystem-based adaptation reduces climate risk across sectors, providing social, economic, health and environmental co-benefits (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Direct human dependence on ecosystem services, ecosystem health, and ecosystem protection and restoration, conservation agriculture, sustainable land management and integrated catchment management support climate resilience. Inclusion of interdisciplinary scientific information, Indigenous knowledge and practical expertise is essential to effective ecosystem-based adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ), and there is a large risk of maladaptation where this does not happen ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 1.4.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.5. 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 4.6.6, Box 4.6, 5.14.2, 7.4.2, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.9, 9.10, 9.11, 9.12, CCP1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , CCB NATURAL }

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=== Ecosystem health and resilience ===

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'''TS.E.4 Maintaining planetary health is essential for human and societal health and a pre-condition for climate resilient development (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' '''Effective ecosystem conservation on approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including all remaining areas with a high degree of naturalness and ecosystem integrity, will help protect biodiversity, build ecosystem resilience and ensure essential ecosystem services (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). In addition to this protection, sustainable management of the rest of the planet is also important. The protected area required to maintain ecosystem integrity varies by ecosystem type and region, and their placement will determine the quality and ecological representativeness of the resulting network. Ecosystem services that are under threat from a combination of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures include climate change mitigation, flood-risk management and water supply (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). (''' Figure TS.12) { 2.5.4, 2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, 3.6.5, 13.3.2, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.4.1 Species conservation is an internationally recognised objective in its own right and is also important for human life and well-being: there is a strong positive association between species diversity and ecosystem health that is essential for providing critical regulating services, including climate regulation, water provisioning, pest and disease control and crop pollination (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The loss of species also lowers the resilience of the ecosystem as a whole, including its capacity to persist through climate change and recover from extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Species extinction levels that are more than 1000 times natural background rates as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and climate change will increasingly exacerbate this ( ''high confidence'' ). Conservation efforts are more effective when integrated into local spatial plans inclusive of adaptation responses, alongside sustainable food and fiber production systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Strong inclusive governance systems and participatory planning processes that support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes, are gender sensitive and reduce intergroup conflict are required for enhanced ecosystem protection and restoration ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.2, 2.5.2, 2.5.3, 2.5.4, 2.6.1-3, 2.6.5, 2.6.7, Table 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 5.8.4, 5.13.5, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, 7.4.7, CCP1, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB ILLNESS, CCB INDIG, , CCB MIGRATE, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.4.2 Solutions that support biodiversity and the integrity of ecosystems deliver essential co-benefits for people including livelihoods, food and water security and human health and well-being (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Limiting warming to 2°C and protecting 30% of high-biodiversity regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America is estimated to reduce the risk of species extinctions by half ( ''high confidence'' ). Meeting the increasing needs of the human population for food and fibre production requires transformation in management regimes to recognise dependencies on local healthy ecosystems, with greater sustainability, including through increased use of agroecological farming approaches and adaptation to the changing climate ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' People with higher levels of contact with nature have been found to be significantly happier, healthier and more satisfied with their lives ( ''high confidence'' ). Participatory, inclusive governance approaches such as adaptive co-management or community-based planning, which integrate those groups who rely on these ecosystems (e.g., Indigenous Peoples, local communities), support equitable and effective adaptation outcomes ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.5.4, 2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 5.8.4, 5.13.5, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, 17.3.1, 17.3.2, 17.6, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.4.3 Protecting and building the resilience of ecosystems through restoration, in ways which are consistent with sustainable development, are essential for effective climate change mitigation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Degradation and loss of ecosystems is a major cause of greenhouse gas emissions, which is increasingly exacerbated by climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ) ''.'' Globally, there is a 38% overlap between areas of high carbon storage and high intact biodiversity, but only 12% of that is protected ( ''high confidence'' ). Addressing this gap will require an approach which takes account of human needs, particularly food security. Tropical rainforests and global peatlands are particularly important carbon stores but are highly threatened by human disturbance, land conversion and fire. Climate resilient development will require strategies for land-based climate change mitigation to be integrated with adaptation, biodiversity and sustainable development objectives; there is good potential for positive synergies, but also the potential for conflict, including with afforestation and bioenergy crops, when these objectives are pursued in isolation ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.5.3, 2.6.3, 2.6.5-7, 2.6.7, Box 2.2, 3.4.2, 3.5.5, Box 3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.3.2 CCP7.3.2] , CCB NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''TS.E.4.4 Adaptive management in response to ecosystem change is increasingly necessary, and more so under higher emissions scenarios (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Feedback from monitoring and assessments of the changing state of planetary conditions and local ecosystems enables proactive adaptation to manage risks and minimise impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ). Integrated sectoral approaches promoting climate resilience, particularly for addressing the impacts of extreme events, are key to effective climate resilient development ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 2.6.2, 2.6.3, 2.6.6, 2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, 3.6.5, Box 3.4, 17.3.2, 17.6, CCB EXTREMES, SR1.5, SRCCL, SROCC }

'''TS.E.4.5 Adaptation cannot prevent all risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptation of conservation strategies, by building resilience and planning for unavoidable change, can reduce harm but will not be possible in all systems, for example, fragile ecosystems that reach critical thresholds or tipping points such as coral reefs, some forests, sea ice and permafrost systems. Conservation and restoration will alone be insufficient to protect coral reefs beyond 2030 ( ''high confidence'' ) and to protect mangroves beyond the 2040s ( ''high confidence'' ). Deep cuts in emissions will be necessary to minimise irreversible loss and damage ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.4, 2.6.1, 2.6.6, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, Figure 3.26, Table SM3.5, Table SM3.6 }

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=== Governance ===

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'''TS.E.5 Governance arrangements and practices are presently ineffective to reduce risks, reverse path dependencies and maladaptation and facilitate climate resilient development (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). Governance for climate resilient development involves diverse societal actors, including the most vulnerable, who can work collectively, drawing upon local and Indigenous knowledges and science, and are supported by strong political will and climate change leadership (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Governance practices will work best when they are coordinated within and between multiple scales and levels (institutional, geographical and temporal) and sectors, with supporting financial resources, are tailored for local conditions, are gender-responsive and gender-inclusive and are founded upon enduring institutional and social learning capabilities to address the complexity, dynamism, uncertainty and contestation that characterise escalating climate risk (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' { 1.4.2, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 4.8, 4.8.1, 4.8.2, 4.8.3, 4.8.4, 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 4.8.7, 6.4.3, 6.4.4, 9.4.5, 17.4, 17.6 }

'''TS.E.5.1 Prevailing governance efforts have not closed the adaptation gap (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), in part due to the complex interconnections between climate and non-climate risk and the limits of the predominant development and governance practices (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Institutional fragmentation, under- resourcing of services, inadequate adaptation funding, uneven capability to manage uncertainties and conflicting values and reactive governance across competing policy domains collectively lock in existing exposures and vulnerabilities, creating barriers and limits to adaptation, and undermine climate resilient development prospects ( ''high confidence'' ). This is amplified by inequity, poverty, population growth and high population density, land use change, especially deforestation, soil degradation, biodiversity loss, high dependence of national and local economies on natural resources for production of commodities, weak governance, unequal access to safe water and sanitation services and a lack of infrastructure and financing, which reduce adaptation capacity and deepen vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.3, 3.6.5, 6.4.3, Figure 6.5, 9.4.1, 11.7, Table 11.14, Table 11.16, 12.1.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2 }

'''TS.E.5.2 Climate governance arrangements and practices are enabled when they are embedded in societal systems that advance human well-being and planetary health (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Collective action and strengthened networked collaboration, more inclusive governance, spatial planning and risk-sensitive infrastructure delivery will contribute to reducing risks ( ''medium confidence'' ). Enablers for climate governance include better practices and legal reforms, improving justice, equity and gender considerations, building human resource capacity, increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms, education and climate change literacy programmes, increased access to climate information, adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.8.7, 9.4.5, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, 17.4, 17.6 }

'''TS.E.5.3 Climate governance will be most effective when it has meaningful and ongoing involvement of all societal actors from local to global levels (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Actors, including individuals and households, communities, governments at all levels, private-sector businesses, non-governmental organisations, Indigenous Peoples, religious groups and social movements, at many scales and in many sectors, are adapting already and can take stronger adaptation and mitigation actions. Many forms of adaptation are more effective, more cost-efficient and more equitable when organised inclusively ( ''high confidence'' ). Greater coordination and engagement across levels of government, business and community serves to move from planning to action and from reactive to proactive adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Inclusion of all societal actors helps to secure credibility, relevance and legitimacy, while fostering commitment and social learning ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ), as well as equity and well-being, and reduces long-term vulnerability across scales ( ''high evidence, medium agreement'' ). Social movements in many cities, including those led by youth, have heightened public awareness about the need for urgent, inclusive adaptation that can enhance well-being, foster formal and informal cooperation and coherence between different institutions and build new adaptive capacities. City and local governments remain key actors facilitating climate change adaptation in cities and settlements ( ''medium confidence'' ). Private and business investment in key infrastructure, housing construction and insurance can drive adaptive action at scale but can exclude the priorities of the poor ( ''medium confidence'' ). Networked community actions can address neighbourhood-scale improvements and vulnerability at scale ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 1.4.2, 3.6.5, 6.1, 6.4, 9.4.5, Box 9.4, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, 14.6.3, Box 14.8, 17.2 }

'''TS.E.5.4 Governance practices for climate resilient development will be most effective when supported by formal (e.g., the law) and informal (e.g., local customs and rituals) institutional arrangements providing for ongoing coordination between and alignment of local to international arrangements across sectors and policy domains (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Aligned national and international legal and policy instruments can support the development and implementation of adaptation and climate risk management ( ''medium confidence'' ) and reduce exposure to key risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Dedicated climate change acts can play a foundational and distinctive role in supporting effective climate governance, and are drivers of subsequent activity in both developing and developed countries ( ''high confidence'' ). The transboundary nature of many climate change risks and species responses will require transboundary solutions through multi-national or regional governance processes on land ( ''medium confidence'' ) and at sea ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.5, Table 3.28, 4.6.2, 4.6, 6.1, 9.4.3, 9.4.4, Box 9.5, 11.7.1, 11.7.3, 17.2.1, 17.3.2, 17.4.2, 17.5.1, 17.6, 18.4.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4.2 CCP5.4.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.E.5.5 Multi-lateral governance efforts can help reconcile contested interests, worldviews and values about how to address climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Policy responses and strategies that localise development and expand the adaptation and mobility options of populations exposed to climatic risks can also reduce risks of climate-related conflict and political instability ( ''high agreement, medium evidence'' ). Formal institutional arrangements for natural resource management can contribute to wider cooperation and peacebuilding ( ''high confidence'' ). Reducing vulnerability depends on the inclusive engagement of the most vulnerable, is gender-responsive and includes key societal actors from civil society, the private sector and government, with an especially important role played by local government in partnership with local communities. Strong governance and gender-sensitive approaches to natural resource management reduce the risk of intergroup conflict in climate-disrupted areas ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 4.8.7, 6.1, 7.4.4, 7.4.5, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG }

'''TS.E.5.6 A range of governance processes, practices and tools that are applicable across a range of temporal and spatial scales are available to support inclusive decision-making for adaptation and risk management in diverse settings (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' National guidance and laws, policies and regulations, decision tools that can be tailored to local circumstances, innovative engagement processes and collaborative governance can motivate better understanding of climate risk and build climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). Collaborative networks and institutions, including among local communities and their governing authorities, can help resolve conflicts ( ''high confidence'' ). A combination of robust climate information, adaptive decision-making under uncertainty, land use planning, public engagement and conflict resolution approaches can help to address governance constraints to prepare for climate risks and build adaptive capacity ( ''high confidence'' ). New modelling, monitoring and evaluation approaches, alongside disruptive technologies, can help understand the societal implications of trade-offs and build integrated pathways of low-regret anticipatory options, established jointly across sectors in a timely manner, to avoid locked-in development pathways ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 3.6.4, 3.6.5, 5.14.1, 5.14.4, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, 11.7.1, 11.7.3, Box 11.5, 15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, 17.3.1, 17.3.2, 17.4.2, 17.4.4, 17.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4.3 CCP2.4.3] , CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

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=== Transformation towards climate resilient development ===

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'''TS.E.6 Accelerating climate change and trends in exposure and vulnerability underscore the need for rapid action on the range of transformational approaches to expand the future set of effective, feasible and just solutions (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). Transformation towards climate resilient development is advanced most effectively when actors work in inclusive and enabling ways to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, building on information and knowledge on climate risk and adaptation options derived from different knowledge systems (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Taking action now provides the foundation for adaptation to current and future risks, for large-scale mitigation measures and for effective outcomes for both.''' (Figure TS.13) { 2.6.7, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.5, 7.2.1, 7.3.1, 8.3.3, 8.3.4, 8.4.5, Figure 8.12, 13.3.2, 13.4.2, 13.8, 13.10.2, 18.3.2, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Table 18.5, CCB FEASIB, CCB FINANCE, CCB ILLNESS, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.6.1 Large-scale, transformational adaptation necessitates enabling improved approaches to governance and coordination across sectors and jurisdictions to avoid overwhelming current adaptive capacities and to avoid future maladaptive actions (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Response options in one sector can become response risks that exacerbate impacts in other sectors. A deliberate shift from primarily technological adaptation strategies to those that additionally incorporate behavioural and institutional changes, adaptation finance, equity and environmental justice and that align policy with global sustainability goals will facilitate transformational adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Application and efficacy testing of climate resilient development, or adaptation pathways, show promise for implementing transformational approaches ( ''medium confidence'' ), including expansion of ecosystem-based adaptation approaches. Climate information services that are demand driven and context specific, combined with climate change literacy, have the potential to improve adaptation responses ( ''high confidence'' ). { 5.14.3, 9.4.5, 14.7.2, 14.6, 17.6 }

'''TS.E.6.2 Climate resilient development pathways depend on how contending societal interests, values and worldviews are reconciled through inclusive and participatory interactions between governance actors in these arenas of engagement (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These interactions occur in many different arenas (e.g., governmental, economic and financial, political, knowledge, science and technology, community) that represent the settings, places and spaces in which societal actors interact to influence the nature and course of development. For instance, Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of multi-level adaptation governance, including non-state actors from civil society and the private sector. This implies the need for wider arenas of engagement for diverse actors to collectively solve problems and to unlock the synergies between adaptation and mitigation and sustainable development ( ''high confidence'' ). { 18.4.3 }

'''TS.E.6.3 Managing transition risk is a critical element of transforming society (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). System transitions towards climate resilient development pose potential risks to sectors and regions.''' This implies managing climate risk in the event that greenhouse gas mitigation efforts over- or underperform. In addition, decision makers should be aware of the financial risks associated with stranded assets, technology risks and the risks to social equity or ecosystem health. By acknowledging, assessing and managing such risks, actors will have a greater likelihood of achieving success in making development climate resilient. Opportunities exist to promote synergies between sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation, but trade-offs are likely unavoidable, and managing trade-offs and synergies will be important ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate resilient development risks and opportunities vary by location with uncertainty about global mitigation effort and future climates relevant to local planning ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.7.6, 4.8, 17.4, 17.6, 18.4, 18.5 }

'''TS.E.6.4 Prospects for transformation towards climate resilient development increase when key governance actors work together in inclusive and constructive ways to create a set of appropriate enabling conditions (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These enabling conditions include effective governance and information flow, policy frameworks that incentivise sustainability solutions, adequate financing for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, institutional capacity, science, technology and innovation, monitoring and evaluation of climate resilient development policies, programmes and practices and international cooperation. Investment in social and technological innovation could generate the knowledge and entrepreneurship needed to catalyse system transitions and their transfer. The implementation of policies that incentivise the deployment of low-carbon technologies and practices within specific sectors, such as energy, buildings and agriculture, could accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation and deployment of climate resilient infrastructure in both urban and rural areas. Civic engagement is an important element of building societal consensus and reducing barriers to action on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 18.4 }

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