Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

===== 3.2.4.1.1 Arctic =====

Arctic fisheries are important economically and societally. Large commercial fisheries exist off the coasts of Greenland and in the Barents and Bering Seas (Holsman et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r835|835]]</sup> ; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r836|836]]</sup> ). First-wholesale value for commercial harvest of all species in 2017 in the Eastern Bering Sea was 2.68 billion USD, and for the Barents Sea around 1 billion USD to Norwegian fishers alone. The target species for these commercial fisheries include gadoids, flatfish, herring, red fish ( ''Sebastes'' sp.), salmonids, and capelin. Fisheries in other Arctic regions are relatively small-scale, locally operated, and target a limited number of species (Reist, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r837|837]]</sup> ). Still, these fisheries are of considerable cultural, economic and subsistence importance to local communities (Section 3.5.2.1).

Climate change will affect the spatial distribution and productivity of some commercially important marine fish and shellfish under most RCPs (Section 3.2.3.1) with associated impacts on the distribution and economic viability of commercial fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ). Past performance suggests that high latitude fisheries have been resilient to changing environmental and market drivers. For example, the Norwegian cod fishery has exported dried cod over an unbroken period of more than a thousand years (Barrett et al., 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r838|838]]</sup> ), reflecting the resilience of the northern Norwegian cod fisheries to historic climate variability (Eide, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r839|839]]</sup> ). Also, model projections indicate that expansions in suitable habitat for subarctic species and increased production of planktonic prey due to increasing temperatures and ice retreat, will continue to support commercially important fisheries (Lam et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r840|840]]</sup> ; Eide, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r841|841]]</sup> ; Haug et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r842|842]]</sup> ; Peck and Pinnegar, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r843|843]]</sup> ) (Section 3.2.3.1.3, Box 3.4) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

However, recent studies in the Bering Sea suggest that future fish production will also depend on how climate change and ocean acidification will alter the quality, quantity and availability of suitable prey; the thermal stress and metabolic demands of resident fish; and species interactions (Section 3.2.3.1.3), suggesting that the future of commercial fisheries in Arctic regions is uncertain (Holsman et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r844|844]]</sup> ). It is also uncertain whether future autumn and winter ocean conditions will be conducive to the establishment of resident overwintering spawning populations that are large enough to support sustainable commercial fishing operations at higher latitude Arctic shelf regions (Section 3.2.3.1) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Projecting the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries is inextricably intertwined with response scenarios regarding risk tolerance in future management of marine resources, advancements in fish capture technology, and markets drivers (e.g., local and global demand, emerging product lines, competition, processing efficiencies and energy costs) (Groeneveld et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r845|845]]</sup> ). Seasonal and interannual variability in ocean conditions influences product quality and costs of fish capture (Haynie and Pfeiffer, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r846|846]]</sup> ) (Table 3.4). Further, past experience suggests that barriers to diversification may limit the portfolio of viable target fisheries available to small-scale fisheries (Ward et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r847|847]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ).

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