Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Sustainable development, equity and justice ===

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'''TS.E.1 Climate resilient development implements greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation options to support sustainable development. With accelerated warming and the intensification of cascading impacts and compounded risks above 1.5°C warming, there is a sharply increasing demand for adaptation and climate resilient development linked to achieving SDGs and equity and balancing societal priorities. There is only limited opportunity to widen the remaining solution space and take advantage of many potentially effective, yet unimplemented, options for reducing society and ecosystem vulnerability (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). (''' Figure TS.2, Figure TS.9 URBAN, Figure TS.11a, Figure TS.13) { 1.2.3, 1.5.1, 1.5.2, 1.5.3, 2.6.7, 3.6.5, 4.8, Box 4.7, 7.1.5, 7.4.6, 13.10.2, 13.11, 17.2.1, 18.1, CCB COVID, CCB FINANCE, CCB HEALTH, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.1.1 Prevailing development pathways do not advance climate resilient development (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). Societal choices in the near term will determine future pathways.''' There is no single pathway or climate that represents climate resilient development for all nations, actors or scales, as well as globally, and many solutions will emerge locally and regionally. Global trends including rising income inequality, urbanisation, migration, continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, human displacement and reversals of long-term trends toward increased life expectancy run counter to the SDGs as well as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate. With progressive climate change, enabling conditions will diminish, and opportunities for successfully transitioning systems for both mitigation and adaptation will become more limited ( ''high confidence'' ). Investments in economic recovery from COVID-19 offer opportunities to promote climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.13) { 16.6.1, 17.2.1, 18.2, 18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4 CCP5.4.4] , CCB COVID }

'''TS.''' '''E.1.2 System transitions can enable climate resilient de''' '''velop''' '''ment when accompanied by appropriate enabling conditio''' '''ns a''' '''nd inclusive arenas of engagement (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Fi ve sy stem transitions are considered: energy, industry, urban and inf rastructure, land and ecosystems, and society. Advancing climate resilient development in specific contexts may necessitate simultaneous progress on all five transitions. Collectively, these system transitions can widen the solution space and accelerate and deepen the implementation of sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation actions by equipping actors and decision makers with more effective options ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, urban ecological infrastructure linked to an appropriate land use mix, street connectivity, open and green spaces and job-housing proximity provides adaptation and mitigation benefits that can aid urban transformation ( ''medium confidence'' ). These system transitions are necessary precursors for more fundamental climate and sustainable-development transformations but can simultaneously be outcomes of transformative actions. Enhancing equity and agency are cross-cutting considerations for all five transitions. Such transitions can generate benefits across different sectors and regions, provided they are facilitated by appropriate enabling conditions, including effective governance, policy implementation, innovation and climate and development finance, which are currently insufficient ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.4, 15.7, 18.3, 18.4, Table 18.5, CCB FEASIB, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.E.1.3 System transitions are highly feasible. For energy system transitions, there is''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''in the high feasibility of resilient infrastructure and efficient water use for power plants and''' '''''high confidence''''' '''in the synergies of this option with mitigation.''' For coastal ecosystem transitions, there is ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' that ecosystem conservation and biodiversity management are increasing adaptive and ecological capacity with socioeconomic co-benefits and positive synergies with carbon sequestration. However, opportunity costs can be a barrier. For land ecosystem transitions, there is ''high confidence'' in the role of agroforestry to increase ecological and adaptive capacity, once economic and cultural barriers and potential land use change trade-offs are overcome. There is ''high confidence'' in improved cropland management and its economic feasibility due to improved productivity. For efficient livestock systems, there is ''medium confidence'' in the high technological and ecological feasibility. (Figure TS.11a) { CCB FEASIB }

'''TS.E.1.4 For urban and infrastructure system transitions, there is''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''for sustainable land use and urban planning.''' There is ''high confidence'' in the economic and ecological feasibility of green infrastructure and ecosystem services, as well as sustainable urban water management, once institutional barriers in the form of limited social and political acceptability are overcome. Social safety nets, disaster risk management and climate services and population health and health systems are considered overarching adaptation options due to their applicability across all system transitions. There is ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' in the high feasibility of disaster risk management and the use of demand-driven and context-specific climate services as well as in the socioeconomic feasibility of social safety nets. Improving health systems through enhancing access to medical services and developing or strengthening surveillance systems can have high feasibility when there is a robust institutional and regulatory framework ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH, Figure TS.9 URBAN, Figure TS.11a, Figure TS.13) { 6.3, CCB FEASIB }

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'''Figure TS.13 |''' '''Climate resilient development is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development.''' This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting climate resilient pathways) by describing how climate resilient development pathways are the result of cumulative societal choices and actions within multiple arenas.

'''Panel''' '''(a)''' Societal choices towards higher climate resilient development (green cog) or lower climate resilient development (red cog) result from interacting decisions and actions by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors, in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, mitigation and development actions in political, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from local to international levels. Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world.

'''Panel''' '''(b)''' Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways towards higher (green) or lower (red) climate resilient development. Past conditions (past emissions, climate change and development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher climate resilient development (dashed green line).

'''Panel''' '''(c)''' Higher climate resilient development is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.4) { 2.6, 3.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 Table SPM.2, SR1.5 Figure SPM.1 } .

'''Panel''' '''(d)''' Appropriate choices for fostering climate resilient development pathways involve considering the portfolio of risks, the potential for adaptations to satisfactorily reduce risks and not exacerbate others, the potential for mitigation measures to interact with risks and adaptations within and across sectors, and how and whether adaptations can be enabled. The graphic table illustrates a possible assembly (not exhaustive) of these considerations for four sectors (agriculture, water, built environments, ecosystems) in the region Africa, showing (i) ''top panel'' : the potential for cascading and compounding effects amongst risks within sectors, between sectors and across boundaries and the possible constraints for adaptation (at what global warming level might risks become too great for adaptation – cell colour) and the adaptation gap to be filled (cell border) (risks are grouped by Representative Key Risks); (ii) ''second panel'' : the potential for adaptations to reduce risks, including their feasibility (cell border), their interaction with other adaptations addressing the same or interacting risks, and whether they are limited by global warming level (cell colour) (possible adaptations are identified for Representative Key Risks); (iii) ''third panel'' : the mitigation measures grouped into categories that might interact with risks and adaptations, including showing their importance (cell border) and whether the interaction would be potentially positive, negative or a mixture of both (cell colour) (note: ‘carbon’ refers to carbon sequestration); (iv) ''bottom panel'' : Enabling conditions for sectors grouped into categories of enablers common across many sectors, showing their importance (cell border) and how they may be suitable across a number of sectors, along with an assessment of the gap in the enabler for satisfactory adaptation (cell colour). Confidence levels on each cell are indicated as *= ''low confidence'' , ** = ''medium confidence'' , *** = ''high confidence.'' (see also SMTS.4, Table SMTS.5) { 16.5.2, Table SM16.4 }

'''TS.E.1.5 There are multiple possible pathways by which communities, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development. Moving towards different pathways involves confronting complex synergies and trade-offs between development pathways and the options, contested values and interests that underpin climate mitigation and adaptation choices (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate resilient development pathways are trajectories for the pursuit of climate resilient development and navigating its complexities. Different actors, the private sector and civil society, influenced by science, local and Indigenous knowledges, and the media, are both active and passive in designing and navigating climate resilient development pathways. Increasing levels of warming may narrow the options and choices available for local survival and sustainable development for human societies and ecosystems. Limiting warming to Paris Agreement goals will reduce the magnitude of climate risks to which people, places, the economy and ecosystems will have to adapt. Reconciling the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development interventions and how they are distributed among different populations and geographies is essential and challenging but also creates the potential to pursue synergies that benefit human and ecological well-being ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.2.1, 18.1, 18.4 }

'''TS.E.1.6. Economic sectors and global regions are exposed to different opportunities and challenges in facilitating climate resilient development, suggesting adaptation and mitigation options should be aligned to local and regional context and development pathways (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Given their current state of development, some regions may prioritise poverty and inequality reduction and economic development over the near term as a means of building capacity for climate action and low-carbon development over the long term. In contrast, developed economies with mature economies and high levels of resilience may prioritise climate action to transition their energy systems and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Some interventions may be robust in that they are relevant to a broad range of potential development trajectories and could be deployed in a flexible manner. However, other types of interventions, such as those that are dependent upon emerging technologies, may require a specific set of enhanced enabling conditions or factors, including infrastructure, supply chains, international cooperation and education and training that currently limit their implementation to certain settings. Notwithstanding national and regional differences, development practices that are aligned to people, prosperity, partnerships, peace and the planet as defined in Agenda 2030 could enable more climate resilient development. ( ''high confidence'' ) { 18.5, Figure 18.1 }

'''TS.E.1.7 Pursuing climate resilient development involves considering a broader range of sustainable development priorities, policies and practices, as well as enabling societal choices to accelerate and deepen their implementation (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Scientific assessments of climate change have traditionally framed solutions around the implementation of specific adaptation and mitigation options as mechanisms for reducing climate-related risks. They have given less attention to a fuller set of societal priorities and the role of non-climate policies, social norms, lifestyles, power relationships and worldviews in enabling climate action and sustainable development. Because climate resilient development involves different actors pursuing plural development trajectories in diverse contexts, the pursuit of solutions that are equitable for all requires opening the space for engagement and action to a diversity of people, institutions, forms of knowledge and worldviews. Through inclusive modes of engagement that enhance knowledge sharing and realise the productive potential of diverse perspectives and worldviews, societies could alter institutional structures and arrangements, development processes, choices and actions that have precipitated dangerous climate change, constrained the achievement of SDGs and thus limited pathways to achieving climate resilient development. The current decade is critical to charting climate resilient development pathways that catalyse the transformation of prevailing development practices and offer the greatest promise and potential for human well-being and planetary health ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 18.4, Box 18.1 }

'''TS.E.2 Climate action and sustainable development are interdependent. Pursued in an inclusive and integrated manner, they enhance human and ecological well-being. Sustainable development is fundamental to capacity for climate action, including reductions in greenhouse gas emissions as well as enhancing social and ecological resilience to climate change. Increasing social and gender equity is an integral part of the technological and social transitions and transformation towards climate resilient development. Such transitions in societal systems reduce poverty and enable greater equity and agency in decision-making. They often require rights-based approaches to protect the livelihoods, priorities and survival of marginalised groups including Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities and children (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 2.6.7, 4.8, 6.3.7, 6.4, 6.4.7, 18.2, 18.4, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.E.2.1 Conditions enabling rapid increases and innovative climate responses include experience of extreme events or climate education influencing perceptions of urgency, together with the actions of catalysing agents such as social movements and technological entrepreneurs.''' People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to implement risk management measures ( ''high confidence'' ). Autonomous adaptation is very common in locations where people are more exposed to extreme events and have the resources and the temporal capacity to act on their own, for example in remote communities ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.5.2, 4.2.1, 4.6, 4.7.1, 6.4.7, 8.5.2, 9.4.5, 17.4.5, 18.5 }

'''TS.E.2.2 A range of policies, practices and enabling conditions accelerate efforts towards climate resilient development. Diverse actors including youth, women, Indigenous communities and business leaders are the agents of societal changes and transformations that enable climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Greater attention to which actors benefit, fail to benefit or are directly harmed by different types of interventions could significantly advance efforts to pursue climate resilient development. ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). { 4.6, 4.7.1, 5.13, 5.14, 6.4.7, 8.4.5, 9.4.5, 17.4, 18.5 }

'''TS.E.2.3 Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDG 5 on gender equality ensures that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society (e.g., leading to maladaptation practices) (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Adaptation actions do not automatically have positive outcomes for gender equality. Understanding the positive and negative links of adaptation actions with gender equality goals (i.e., SDG 5) is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not exacerbate existing gender-based and other social inequalities. Efforts are needed to change unequal power dynamics and to foster inclusive decision-making for climate adaptation to have a positive impact for gender equality ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' There are very few examples of successful integration of gender and other social inequities in climate policies to address climate change vulnerabilities and questions of social justice ( ''very high confidence'' ). Yet inequities in climate change literacy compounds women’s vulnerability to climate change through its negative effect on climate risk perception { 4.8.3, 9.4.5, 16.1.4, 17.5.1, CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.2.4 Gender-sensitive, equity- and justice-based adaptation approaches, integration of Indigenous knowledge systems within legal frameworks and the promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights reduce vulnerability and increase resilience (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Integrating adaptation into social protection programmes can build long-term resilience to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Nevertheless, social protection programmes can increase resilience to climate related shocks, even if they do not specifically address climate risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate adaptation actions are grounded in local realities so understanding links with SDGs is important to ensure that adaptive actions do not worsen existing gender and other inequities within society, leading to maladaptation practices ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.4, 4.8.3, 4.8.4, 9.4.5, Box 9.1, Box 9.2, Box 9.7, Box 9.8, Box 9.9, Box 9.10, Box 9.11, 14.4, Box 14.1, 17.5.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] CCB GENDER }

'''TS.E.2.5 Water can be either an enabler or a hindrance to successful adaptation and sustainable development. Central to equity issues about water is that it remains a public good (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Overcoming institutional and financial constraints (governance, institutions, policies), including path dependency, is among the most important requirements enabling effective adaptation in the water sector ( ''high confidence'' ). Water-related challenges, despite reported adaptation efforts, indicate limits of adaptation in the absence of water neutral mitigation action ( ''medium confidence'' ). For some regions, such as small island states, coastal areas and mountainous regions, water availability already has the potential to become a hard limit on adaptation ( ''limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) ''.'' (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.5, 4.8, 4.6, 4.7.1, 4.7.2, 4.7.6, 6.4 case study 6.1, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] }

'''TS.E.2.6 Procedural and distributional justice and flexible institutions facilitate successful adaptation and minimise maladaptive outcomes.''' Reorienting existing institutions to become more flexible (e.g., through capacity building and institutional reform) and inclusive is key to building adaptive governance systems that are equipped to take long-term decisions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Enhancing climate governance, institutional capacity and differentiated policies and regulation from the local to global scale enables and accelerates climate resilient development. Transforming financial systems to deliver the SDGs, while accelerating system transitions and addressing physical and transition risks, is a precondition. Changes in lifestyles, human behaviour and preferences can have a significant impact on adaptation implementation, demand and hence emissions and decision-making around climate action ( ''high confidence'' ). Additionally, the use of customary and traditional justice systems, such as those of Indigenous peoples, can enhance the equity of adaptation policy processes ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.8, 4.6,8, 5.2.3, 13.8, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5, 17.1, 18.4 }

'''TS.E.2.7 Enabling environments for adaptation that support equitable sustainable development are essential for those with climate-sensitive livelihoods who are often least able to adapt and influence decision-making (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Enabling environments share common governance characteristics, including the meaningful involvement of multiple actors and assets, alongside multiple centres of power at different levels that are well integrated, vertically and horizontally ( ''high confidence'' ). Enabling conditions harness synergies, address moral and ethical choices and divergent values and interests and support just approaches to livelihood transitions that do not undermine human well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate solutions for health, well-being and the changing structure of communities are complex and closely interconnected and call for new approaches to sustainable development that consider interactions between climate, human and socioecological systems to generate climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). To address regionally specific adaptation and developmental needs, five key dimensions of climate resilient development are identified for Africa: climate finance, governance, cross-sectoral and transboundary solutions, adaptation law and climate services and climate change literacy ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.6, 4.8, 6.4.7, 7.1.7, 8.5.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.3, 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.3, 9.4.4, 9.4.5, 17.4 }

'''TS.E.2.8 Prevailing ideologies or worldviews, institutions and sociopolitical relations influence development trajectories by framing climate narratives and possibilities for action (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The interplay between worldviews and ethics, sociopolitical relations, institutions and human behaviour influence public engagement by individuals and communities. These open up opportunities for meaningful engagement and co-production of pathways towards climate resilient development. The urgency of climate action is a potential enabler of climate decision-making ( ''medium confidence'' ). Perceptions of urgency encourage communities, businesses and leaders to undertake climate adaptation and mitigation measures more quickly and to prioritise climate action ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.1.3, 6.4.3, 17.1, 17.4.5, 18.5 }

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