Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.3.5.2 Integrated response options based on value chain management ====

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In this section, the impacts on food security of integrated response options based on value chain management are assessed.

''Integrated response options based on value chain management through demand management''

Dietary change can free up agricultural land for additional production (Bajželj et al. 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r672|672]]</sup> ; Stehfest et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r673|673]]</sup> ; Tilman and Clark 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r674|674]]</sup> ) and reduce the risk of some diseases (Tilman and Clark 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r675|675]]</sup> ; Aleksandrowicz et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r676|676]]</sup> ), with large positive impacts on food security (Table 6.50).

Kummu et al. (2012) <sup>[[#fn:r1273|1273]]</sup> estimate that an additional billion people could be fed if food waste was halved globally. This includes both post- harvest losses and retail and consumer waste. Measures such as improved food transport and distribution could also contribute to this waste reduction (Table 6.50).

While no studies quantified the effect of material substitution on food security, the effects are expected to be similar to reforestation and afforestation if the amount of material substitution leads to an increase in forest area.

Table 6.50 summarises the impact on food security of demand management options, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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'''Table 6.50'''

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Integrated response options based on value chain management through supply management

Since 810 million people are undernourished (FAO 2018b <sup>[[#fn:r677|677]]</sup> ), this sets the maximum number of those who could potentially benefit from sustainable sourcing or better management of supply chains. Currently, however, only 1 million people are estimated to benefit from sustainable sourcing (Tayleur et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r678|678]]</sup> ). For the others, food price spikes affect food security and health; there are clearly documented effects of stunting among young children as a result of the 2007/2008 food supply crisis (de Brauw 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r679|679]]</sup> ; Arndt et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r680|680]]</sup> ; Brinkman et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r681|681]]</sup> ; Darnton-Hill and Cogill 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r682|682]]</sup> ) with a 10% increase in wasting attributed to the crisis in South Asia (Vellakkal et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r683|683]]</sup> ). There is conflicting evidence on the impacts of different food price stability options for supply chains, and little quantification (Byerlee et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r684|684]]</sup> ; del Ninno et al. 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r685|685]]</sup> ; Alderman 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r686|686]]</sup> ; Braun et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r687|687]]</sup> ). Reduction in staple food prices due to price stabilisation resulted in more expenditure on other foods and increased nutrition (e.g., oils, animal products), leading to a 10% reduction in malnutrition among children in one study (Torlesse et al. 2003 <sup>[[#fn:r688|688]]</sup> ). Comparison of two African countries shows that protectionist policies (food price controls) and safety nets to reduce price instability resulted in a 20% decrease in risk of malnutrition (Nandy et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r689|689]]</sup> ). Models using policies for food aid and domestic food reserves to achieve food supply and price stability showed the most effectiveness of all options in achieving climate mitigation and food security goals (e.g., more effective than carbon taxes) as they did not exacerbate food insecurity and did not reduce ambitions for achieving temperature goals (Fujimori et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r690|690]]</sup> ).

For urban food systems, increased food production in cities, combined with governance systems for distribution and access can improve food security, with a potential to produce 30% of food consumed in cities. The urban population in 2018 was 4.2 billion people, so 30% represents 1230 million people who could benefit in terms of food security from improved urban food systems (Table 6.51).

It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farmers depend on agricultural businesses in developing countries (World Bank 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r691|691]]</sup> ), which sets the maximum number of people who could benefit from improved efficiency and sustainability of food processing, retail and agri-food industries.

Up to 2500 million people could benefit from increased energy efficiency in agriculture, based on the estimated number of people worldwide lacking access to clean energy and instead relying on biomass fuels for their household energy needs (IEA 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r692|692]]</sup> ).

Table 6.51 summarises the impact on food security of supply management options, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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