Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

===== 3.2.4.1.2 Southern Ocean =====

This section examines climate change impacts on Southern Ocean fisheries for Antarctic krill and finfish. Management of these fisheries by CCAMLR and responses to climate change are discussed in Section 3.5.2.1. The main Antarctic fisheries are for Antarctic krill, and for Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish; in 2016 the reported catches for these species were approximately 260 thousand tons for krill (CCAMLR, 2017b <sup>[[#fn:r848|848]]</sup> ) and 11 thousand tons for Antarctic and Patagonian toothfish combined (CCAMLR, 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r850|850]]</sup> ). The mean annual wholesale value of the Antarctic krill fishery was 69.5 USD million yr -1 for the period from 2011 to 2015, and 206.7 million USD yr -1 for toothfish fisheries (combined) over the same period (CCAMLR, 2016b). The fishery for Antarctic krill in the southern Atlantic Sector and the northern West Antarctic Peninsula (together the current area of focus for the fishery) has become increasingly concentrated in space over recent decades, which has raised concern regarding localised impacts on krill predators (Hinke et al., 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r851|851]]</sup> ). The krill fishery has also changed its peak season of operation. In the early years of the fishery, most krill were taken in summer and autumn, with lowest catches being taken in spring. In recent years the lowest catches have occurred over summer, catches have peaked in late autumn, and very little fishing activity has occurred in spring (Nicol and Foster, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r852|852]]</sup> ). Some of these temporal and spatial shifts in the fishery over time have been attributed to reductions in winter sea ice extent in the region (Kawaguchi et al., 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r853|853]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ). Recent increases in the use of krill catch to produce krill oil (as a human health supplement) has also led to vessels concentrating on fishing in autumn and winter when krill are richest in lipids (Nicol and Foster, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r854|854]]</sup> ). Available evidence regarding future changes to Antarctic krill populations (Section 3.2.3.2.1) indicates that the impacts of climate change will be most pronounced in the areas that are currently most important for the Antarctic krill fishery: the Scotia Sea and the northern tip of the AP. Major future changes in the krill fishery itself are expected to be driven by global issues external to the Southern Ocean, including conservation decision making and socioeconomic drivers.

There is limited understanding of the consequences of climate change for Southern Ocean finfish fisheries. Lack of recovery of mackerel icefish ( ''Champsocephalus gunnari'' ) after cessation of fishing in 1995 has been related to anomalous water temperatures (~2 ° C increase related to a strong El Niño) in the subantarctic Indian Ocean and to availability of krill prey in the Atlantic region (Mintenbeck, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r855|855]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ). Differences in temperature tolerance of Patagonian and Antarctic toothfish described in Section 3.2.3.2.3 may have implications for future fisheries of these two species.

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