Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.5.2.1 Fisheries and aquaculture =====

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The fisheries and aquaculture production from Asia in 2019 was estimated at 159.67 mmt contributing to 74.7% of the global production ( [[#FAO--2020|FAO, 2020]] ). This sector provides employment to an estimated 50.46 million people where fishing and aquaculture are important socioeconomic activities and fish products are a substantial source of animal protein ( [[#Bogard--2015|Bogard et al., 2015]] ; [[#Azad--2017|Azad, 2017]] ; [[#FAO--2018c|FAO, 2018c]] ). The economic contribution could be as high as 44% of the coastal communities’ GDP as in the case of Sri Lanka ( [[#Sarathchandra--2018|Sarathchandra et al., 2018]] ). Five Asian countries (i.e., China, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and Japan) are in the top ten of global fish producers, representing a cumulative share of 36% in 2018 ( [[#FAO--2020|FAO, 2020]] ). As a top producer with 15% global share, China also remains a top exporter of fish and fish products with 14% global market share.

There is ''high agreement'' in the literature that Asian fisheries and aquaculture, including the local communities depending on them for livelihoods, are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Asia has been impacted by SLR ( [[#Panpeng--2017|Panpeng and Ahmad, 2017]] ), a decrease in precipitation in some parts ( [[#Salik--2015|Salik et al., 2015]] ) and an increase in temperature ( [[#Vivekanandan--2016|Vivekanandan et al., 2016]] ), all of which have drastic effects on fisheries and aquaculture ( [[#FAO--2018c|FAO, 2018c]] ). Its coastal fishing communities is exposed to disasters, which are predicted to increase ( [[#Esham--2018|Esham et al., 2018]] ). Fisheries in most of South Asia and Southeast Asia involve small-scale fishers who are more vulnerable to climate-change impacts compared with commercial fishers (Sönke [[#Kreft--2016|Kreft et al., 2016]] ; [[#Blasiak--2017|Blasiak et al., 2017]] ), although there is a general decreasing trend in the number of small units ( [[#Fernandez-Llamazares--2015|Fernandez-Llamazares et al., 2015]] ; [[#ILO--2015|ILO, 2015]] ). A regional study of South Asia forecast large decreases in potential catch of two key commercial fish species (hilsa shad and Bombay duck) in the Bay of Bengal ( [[#Fernandes--2016|Fernandes et al., 2016]] ), which forms a major fishery and food source for coastal communities. About 69% of the commercially important species of the Indian marine fisheries were found to be impacted by climate change and other anthropogenic factors ( [[#Dineshbabu--2020|Dineshbabu et al., 2020]] ). Likewise, water salinisation brought about by SLR is expected to impact the availability of freshwater fish in southwest coastal Bangladesh with adverse implications to poor communities ( [[#Dasgupta--2017a|Dasgupta et al., 2017a]] ). Analysis of fishery has indicated that there will be a continued decrease in catch impacting the seafood sector in the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia ( [[#Nong--2019|Nong, 2019]] ). Climate change is predicted to decrease total productive fisheries potential in South and Southeast Asia, driven by a temperature increase of approximately 2°C by 2050 ( [[#Barange--2014|Barange et al., 2014]] ).

Like fisheries, Asian aquaculture is highly vulnerable to climate change. Shrimp farmers and fry catchers of Bangladesh are frequently affected by extreme climatic disruptions like cyclones and storm surges that severely damage the entire coastal aquaculture ( [[#Islam--2016a|Islam et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Kais--2018|Kais and Islam, 2018]] ). The majority of shrimp farmers also observed that weather has changed abruptly during the past 5 years and that high temperature is most detrimental because it lowers growth rate, increases susceptibility to diseases, including deformation, and affects production ( [[#Islam--2016a|Islam et al., 2016a]] ). Low production in shrimp farming is also attributed to variation and intensity of rainfall perceived by the majority of farmers as part of climate-change impacts ( [[#Ahmed--2015|Ahmed and Diana, 2015]] ; [[#Islam--2016a|Islam et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Henriksson--2019|Henriksson et al., 2019]] ). In Vietnam, small-scale shrimp farmers are likewise vulnerable to climate change, although those who practise an extensive type of farming with low inputs are more vulnerable compared with those who practise a more intensive type with more capital investment ( [[#Quach--2015|Quach et al., 2015]] ; [[#Quach--2017|Quach et al., 2017]] ). Seaweed farming in Asia is very popular, and the significance of seaweed aquaculture beds in capturing carbon is recognised, but most of the farmed seaweeds are susceptible to climate change ( [[#Chung--2017a|Chung et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Duarte--2017|Duarte et al., 2017]] ).

Marine heatwaves are a new threat to fisheries and aquaculture ( [[#Froehlich--2018|Froehlich et al., 2018]] ; [[#Frölicher--2018|Frölicher and Laufkötter, 2018]] ) including disease spread ( [[#Oliver--2017|Oliver et al., 2017]] ), live feed culture (copepods) ( [[#Doan--2018|Doan et al., 2018]] ) and farming of finfishes like Cobia ( [[#Le--2020|Le et al., 2020]] ). Predicting MHWs is considered a prerequisite for increasing the preparedness of farmers ( [[#Frölicher--2018|Frölicher and Laufkötter, 2018]] ). In Southeast Asian countries more than 30% of aquaculture areas are predicted to become unsuitable for production by 2050–2070 and aquaculture production is predicted to decrease 10–20% by 2050–2070 due to climate change ( [[#Froehlich--2018|Froehlich et al., 2018]] ).

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