Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.5.1.3 Aquatic Food Production ====

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Seafood production in Europe provides jobs for &gt;250,000 people, predominantly in SEU ( [[#Carvalho--2017|Carvalho et al., 2017]] ). Marine fisheries contribute 80% to European aquatic food production, while marine aquaculture provides 18% and freshwater production 3% ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). The Russian Federation provides 25% of seafood production in Europe ( [[#FAOSTAT--2019|FAOSTAT, 2019]] ).

Climate change has impacted European marine food production ( ''high confidence'' ); however, extraction is still the major impact on commercially important fish stocks in Europe ( [[#Mullon--2016|Mullon et al., 2016]] ), with 69% of stocks overfished and 51% outside safe biological limits ( [[#Froese--2018|Froese et al., 2018]] ). The North Sea, the Iberian Coastal Sea and the Celtic Sea–Biscay Shelf are globally among the areas most negatively affected by warming with losses of 15–35% in maximum sustainable yields (MSY) during recent decades ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ). Warming has caused ongoing northward movement and range expansion of Northeast Atlantic fish stocks ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; [[#Baudron--2020|Baudron et al., 2020]] ). In the North Sea, cuttlefish ( [[#van%20der%20Kooij--2016|van der Kooij et al., 2016]] ; [[#Oesterwind--2020|Oesterwind et al., 2020]] ) and tuna ( [[#Bennema--2018|Bennema, 2018]] ; [[#Faillettaz--2019|Faillettaz et al., 2019]] ) have become new target species ( ''medium confidence'' ). In SEU, warm-water species increasingly dominate fisheries landings ( [[#Fortibuoni--2015|Fortibuoni et al., 2015]] ; [[#Teixeira--2016|Teixeira et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vasilakopoulos--2017|Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017]] ).

European countries are assessed to be globally among the least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on fisheries-related food security risks ( ''high confidence'' ) due to low levels of exposure to climate hazards, low dependency of economies on fisheries and a high adaptive capacity ( [[#Barange--2014|Barange et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ). European freshwater production is suggested to be less vulnerable than marine sectors and marine production vulnerability increases with latitude ( [[#Blanchet--2019|Blanchet et al., 2019]] ). In the aquaculture sector, Norway is highly vulnerable due to the high sensitivity of salmon farming to warming and high per-capita production ( [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ). In the fisheries sector, vulnerability for fishing communities is highest in SEU and the UK (Figure 13.9A; [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ), while for aquaculture sectors, it is highest in SEU and some NEU and WCE countries (Figure 13.9B, 2020).

Future vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities are projected to strongly vary regionally and between major fisheries and aquaculture species (Figure 13.13 c,d; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ). Assuming MSY management, projections suggest reduced abundance of most commercial fish stocks in European waters of 35% (up to 90% for individual stocks) between 1.5°C and 4.0°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.13; [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ; [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] ). In response to 4°C GWL, higher trophic-level biomass is projected to increase in the SEUS mainly due to increases in small pelagic and thermophilic, often exotic, species ( [[#Moullec--2019|Moullec et al., 2019]] ).

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[[File:74a6b365e399cdab41088836030882a5 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_013.png]]

'''Figure 13.13 |''' '''Future vulnerability and risks for aquatic food production:'''

'''(a)''' vulnerability for fisheries in 105 coastal regions across 26 countries based on biological traits and physiological metrics of 556 resource populations ( [[#Payne--2021|Payne et al., 2021]] );

'''(b)''' vulnerability of major aquaculture species in European countries on physiological attributes, farming methods and economic output ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] );

'''(c,d)''' differences (%) between projected changes for 1.5°C and 4°C GWL ( [[#Peck--2020|Peck et al., 2020]] ), with '''(c)''' changes in abundance of major fish species by region, and '''(d)''' changes in productivity of major aquaculture species by country

Ocean acidification ( [[#13.4|Section 13.4]] ; Chapter 4) will develop into a major risk for marine food production in Europe under 4°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ), affecting recruitment of important European fish stocks, such as those of cod in the Western Baltic and Barents Sea, by 8 and 24%, respectively (Swat et al., 2018b; [[#Stiasny--2018|Stiasny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Voss--2019|Voss et al., 2019]] ). Acidification is also projected to negatively affect marine shellfish production and aquaculture in Europe with 4°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Fernandes--2017|Fernandes et al., 2017]] ; [[#Narita--2017|Narita and Rehdanz, 2017]] ; [[#Mangi--2018|Mangi et al., 2018]] ).

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