Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

=== 15.5.7 Disaster Risk Management, Early Warning Systems and Climate Services ===

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Disaster risk management investments in small islands are commonly framed as reducing climate change-driven risk and contributing to sustainable development ( [[#Johnston--2014|Johnston, 2014]] ; [[#Mercer--2014a|Mercer et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Kuruppu--2015|Kuruppu and Willie, 2015]] ). Examples include strengthening the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS ) to deliver effective (WMO et al., 2018); nurturing community-based disaster risk management to build social capital ( [[#Blackburn--2014|Blackburn, 2014]] ; [[#McNaught--2014|McNaught et al., 2014]] ; [[#Gero--2015|Gero et al., 2015]] ; [[#Handmer--2017|Handmer and Iveson, 2017]] ; [[#Chacowry--2018|Chacowry et al., 2018]] ; [[#De%20Souza--2018|De Souza and Clarke, 2018]] ; [[#Currenti--2019|Currenti et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cvitanovic--2019|Cvitanovic et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hagedoorn--2019|Hagedoorn et al., 2019]] ), as well as processes that integrate IKLK with science ( [[#Hiwasaki--2014|Hiwasaki et al., 2014]] ; [[#Carby--2015|Carby, 2015]] ; [[#Bryant-Tokalau--2018a|Bryant-Tokalau, 2018a]] ; CANARI, 2019).

Many small islands, especially those with the highest risks and the least resources, remain highly challenged in building and sustaining integrated, people-centred, end-to-end early warning systems (EWS) that are fully functional across the four interrelated components of EWS. Warning dissemination and communication, and disaster preparedness and response capacities are particular components of EWS requiring strengthening in SIDS ( [[#WMO--2020|WMO, 2020]] ). More recent assessments of early warning capabilities in the Caribbean highlight improvements in EWS for weather, water and climate over time (WMO et al., 2018; [[#Mahon--2019|Mahon et al., 2019]] ). However, progress has been uneven across hazards, governance levels and spatial and temporal scales, with more advanced development of some sub-systems and EWS pillars than others. Significant progress has been made in the area of detection, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of severe weather systems but there is a need to strengthen this area for other climate-related hazards such as wildfires, localised intense rainfall, floods, as well as heatwaves and droughts, which become more important in a changing climate. Assessments also point to specific deficiencies including significant gaps in the area of disaster risk knowledge—particularly the development of risk assessments, the variable capacity for interpreting scientific warning products across states, as well as effective communication of warning messages to populations at risk ( [[#Lumbroso--2016|Lumbroso et al., 2016]] ; WMO et al., 2018).

There is increasing recognition and commitment at global ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.3.2|Section 3.6.3.2.4]] ; [[#WMO--2014|WMO, 2014]] ; [[#UN--2015c|UN, 2015c]] ; [[#UN--2015b|UN, 2015b]] ; [[#UN--2015a|UN, 2015a]] ), regional ( [[#CCCCC--2012|CCCCC, 2012]] ; [[#CDEMA--2014|CDEMA, 2014]] ; [[#SPC--2016|SPC, 2016]] ; [[#SPREP--2017|SPREP, 2017]] ; [[#CIMH--2019|CIMH et al., 2019]] ) and national levels ( [[#SPREP--2016a|SPREP, 2016a]] ; WMO, 2016a) of the importance of climate services in supporting adaptation decision-making in small islands ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). A number of SIDS-focused climate service programmes have emerged, especially in the Caribbean and Pacific ( [[#Group--2015|Group, 2015]] ; [[#Martin--2015|Martin et al., 2015]] ; [[#SPREP--2016b|SPREP, 2016b]] ; WMO, 2016b; [[#WMO--2018|WMO, 2018]] a; [[#WMO--2018|WMO, 2018]] b) and at least one SIDS—Dominica—has been prioritised as a pilot implementation country under the Global Framework for Climate Services (WMO, 2016a). As is the case globally, climate services focused on decision-making at seasonal (3–6 month) timescales has thus far been the focus of investment in small islands. Less attention has been given to investments in and assessments of climate services for decision-making at longer timescales ( [[#Vaughan--2018|Vaughan et al., 2018]] ).

Studies from the Caribbean ( [[#Dookie--2019|Dookie et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mahon--2019|Mahon et al., 2019]] ) and Indian Ocean ( [[#Hermes--2019|Hermes et al., 2019]] ), have found that NMHSs and regional intergovernmental bodies face capacity challenges in translation, transfer and facilitation of the use of climate information to various end user groups. In many small island contexts a gap remains between investments in data quality and information services and uptake and use in risk reduction by policy and decision makers ( [[#Dookie--2019|Dookie et al., 2019]] ). Bringing policy makers and users together to guide investments in climate information services is recommended, as is provision of dedicated resources to develop applicable tools and products that turn data and information services into risk reduction measures ( [[#Dookie--2019|Dookie et al., 2019]] ; [[#Haines--2019|Haines, 2019]] ).

Many of the outlined KRs ( [[#15.3.4.9|Section 15.3.4.9]] ) can be addressed through the variety of adaptation options outlined in the previous sections in the context of small islands (Table 15.6, Supplementary Material 15.1). Whereas some of these adaptation options are widespread (e.g., hard protection, reforestation or the creation of MPAs), others (e.g., accommodation, health awareness raising and training) have been little experimented with to date in small island contexts. Although most of these adaptation options provide diversified co-benefits to small island communities, there is still ''limited evidence'' with regard to their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts. While some of them respond directly to a KR or a number of KRs (Table 15.6), others can be understood as overarching options that, for example, build adaptive capacity of communities and organisations and enable these actors to respond to a variety of KRs in an effective manner (see SM15.1).

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